Weather Watch 2024

[Kevloaf]

Time this had it's own thread

[RoadToCheltenham]

Our first official report, via BHA:
Racing on


Cheltenham

(Updated: 09:11, 29th Feb)

Tue 12 Mar

Going/Track:

Soft
(GoingStick:4.7 on 28-02-2024 at 09:00)


Weather:

101mm of rainfall in February. Wet and windy forecast for
Thursday and Friday (29th & 1st) with 8-10mm possible. Drier
weekend with minimal rain expected. Light showers for the early
part of next week with some dry days expected at the end of the
week.

[Eggs]

…the XC also significant. From the sound of it, that’s a bog at the moment and Galvin won’t run if it’s ’very Soft’.

[Odin]

GoingStick was 4.6 on New Year's Day, course was described as Heavy, Soft in places. Seems difficult to believe that GoingStick of 4.7 is actually soft at the moment...

[Studfarm254]

Im a bit of a weather connoisseur (like a pro basically) and I can tell you past 4 or 5 days ahead they don’t have a clue what the weather is going to be, the wind changes directions and all predictions are out the window. Anyway after the next couple of days the forecast is looking pretty dry, given how well Cheltenham drains it could easily be good to soft come the festival, that is of course until the wind changes direction, very easy!

[Lobos]

Currently Soft before today's downpours.....

“We’d be soft ground, as you can imagine with the rain that we’ve had, and the cross country would be heavy in places as well.”

While further rain is forecast in the coming days, Pullin is not expecting a huge swing in conditions either way ahead of day one of the Festival on March 12.

He added: “The forecast for the next seven to 10 days remains unsettled. Thursday looks as if it could be quite wet, but apart from that it’s just little bits and pieces.

“We’ll see how we go, but if that forecast remains, we’ll have similar ground to what we do now for the start of the Festival, I would imagine."

[Irish Rugby]

Im a bit of a weather connoisseur (like a pro basically) and I can tell you past 4 or 5 days ahead they don’t have a clue what the weather is going to be, the wind changes directions and all predictions are out the window. Anyway after the next couple of days the forecast is looking pretty dry, given how well Cheltenham drains it could easily be good to soft come the festival, that is of course until the wind changes direction, very easy!

Thanks. So, is there any mileage in the idea that with the high water level, that significant downpours will turn the ground quickly to soft/heavy, but if we don't get those, and from what I can see recently there has only been minimal rain daily, if at all, not downpours in a short period of time, we could be edging towards good to soft?

Agree with you re more than 5/5 days ahead pure guesswork, and as you say, late wind changes scuppers things.

[Dandrew99]

Had some rain this morning but it's meant to be fairly dry for the rest of the day. Think the heavy stuff comes tomorrow morning

[FredFlintstone]

Day 1 going according to RP in recent years

2023	SOFT (5.1)
2022	GOOD TO SOFT (6.4)
2021	SOFT (Good to soft in places) changing to GOOD TO SOFT (Soft in places) after Race 5 (3.40)
2020	SOFT (Heavy in places, 5.5)
2019	SOFT (6.0)
2018	HEAVY (Soft in places) changing to SOFT (Heavy in places) after Race 5 (4.10)
2017	GOOD TO SOFT (6.5)
2016	GOOD TO SOFT (Soft in places; 7.0)
2015	GOOD TO SOFT (Good in places; 6.9)

[Lobos]

Yep, starting on Soft becoming the norm now. Good for punters though as it's been Soft all season. Don't want the form book to be turned upside down!!

[Guinness Village]

Yep. I don’t need any more handicap. Oof.

[RoadToCheltenham]

1st March: 6mm overnight - Kim Bailey's.

[Irish Rugby]

1st March: 6mm overnight - Kim Bailey's.

Thanks. Suspect that will increase significantly throughout the day with all this rain about or will Cheltenham not get a lashing?

11 days and counting down. As everyday passes we'll have more and more confidence on the forecast. Hard not to expect soft and very soft but they'll need 2-3 days of dry weather to escape that.

[RoadToCheltenham]

Thanks. Suspect that will increase significantly throughout the day with all this rain about or will Cheltenham not get a lashing?

11 days and counting down. As everyday passes we'll have more and more confidence on the forecast. Hard not to expect soft and very soft but they'll need 2-3 days of dry weather to escape that.

"Plus 4 and very wet when driving in. 6mm so far..." was the exact quote. I'm not based in Cheltenham so can't comment on how much rain is currently falling this morning.

[Eggs]

…I know it can dry quickly but not looking good for ones like Banbridge and Galvin wiho’s trainers are open about their participation dependent on the going.