Day 4 Yankee 2024 - Captain AaronLad

[Quevega]

Absolutely. British and anything but Joe in my desperation

Took out of Coral Cup so looks likely to run, why you not like Joe ?

[Rooster Booster]

Took out of Coral Cup so looks likely to run, why you not like Joe ?

Oh he’ll place I’m sure. If he was a greyhound they’d be taking him to a field to let him chase a live one. But then it’s no surprise as the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree

or more plainly he won’t go by and is typical of the sire.

I might whack some on the exchange place market.

[DenmanSacre]

Looks good at the moment. Hopefully 6 day decs give us more of an idea of where some horses are going.

County Hurdle

With Iberico Lord being supplemented for the Champion Hurdle, connections must think he's either much better than his mark of 143 or they're happy with their hand in the County and are taking the risk with IL that he can grab the place money in the CH.

If IL's much better than his mark, L'eau Du Sud is of interest, especially with the Skelton's record. Well clear of Go Dante in 3rd in the Betfair (we should see how he gets on in the Imperial Cup this weekend). Still unexposed over here, should be given a patient ride and been running in the right races (Morebattle last year, Greatwood and Betfair this year). His disappointing run at Cheltenham should be noted though.

The JP horses left in here now are:
Zenta
Magic Tricks
Under Control
Petit Tonnerre
Risk Belle
Impose Toi
Comfort Zone
So Scottish

I'd discount Magic Tricks (not handicapped well enough), Petit Tonnerre (Jonjo) and Comfort Zone (don't think you can win this first hurdle run of the season) straight away.

Zenta - 145 is fairly high. I think she's a max low 150 horse so could be some scope in the mark. Interesting if Walsh picks her as they should hold her up. At Leopardstown she got to the front too soon and they need to deliver her after the last.

Under Control- Hendo/JP horse who has been well backed all season. Run behind Ashore Diamond was good last time. Rated in the 130s which is where the typical winner is rated. If she's over whatever was wrong at Kelso, would have a big chance.

Impose Toi - rated 134. Hendo/JP again. There's definitely scope in his mark but not guaranteed to get in. All 3 runs have been good this year, with a win at Cheltenham, 2nd to Luccia and 3rd in the Lanzarote. Bringing him back in trip will suit. If he gets in, I can see there being a bit of a gamble on him.

Risk Belle - she's good but I think Zenta is better. Not sure Walsh would pick her and I can't see her being the chosen JP horse.

So Scottish - got to respect Emmett. 4th at Leopardstown last time behind Zenta and Magical Zoe. May not get in off 133 but well fancied last year in the Plate off 143. If he gets in, he will be shorter than 14/1.

It will be interesting to see which JP horse gets gambled on. I'd say Under Control or Impose Toi but may depend on how Nicky's run beforehand

Martin Pipe

Already made a case for Answer to Kayf.

I've backed him and Waterford Whispers early on.

The only other one I've done is Nusret.

Joseph has an unreal record in this race.

2023 - no runner
2022- Banbridge win.
2021 - Floueur - 3rd (exceptional renewal with Galopin and Langer Dan 1st and 2nd). Fire Attack pulled up.
2020 - Front View and another one nowhere
2019 - Early Doors win
2018 - Early Doors 3rd

7 runners. 2 winners. 2 placed.

Nusret is his only entry. He's in the County and the Martin Pipe but I'd be hoping he comes here if the ground dries out.

Nusret ran in some good races last season as a juvenile.

Won his maiden easily and stepped up to the grade 2 at Leopardstown at Xmas.

In the grade 2, he was hammered by Lossiemouth and Gala Marceau but finished 3rd a fair way ahead of the others. Officially soft ground when his best form is on yielding or better.

Next time runs at Fairyhouse on soft/heavy and finishes 3rd, hammered by Blood Destiny.

4th race as a juvenile, he wins the Adonis at Kempton on good ground.

Next 2 races are in grade 1s. 3rd at Aintree beaten 5 lengths by Zenta and then 4th at Punchestown beaten 8 lengths by Lossiemouth.

Nusret is rated 139 in Ireland and 142 in the UK.

If we look at the horses who beat him in those grade 1s:

Zenta - Irish rated 142 beating Nusret 5 lengths receiving 7 pounds.

Lossiemouth - now rated 155 and beat Nusret 8 lengths receiving 7 pounds.

Zarak the Brave - now rated 152. Beat Nusret 6 and a half lengths.

Gala Marceau - now rated 141 after disappointing last time. Beat Nusret 4 lengths receiving 7 pounds.

He's raced against a decent level of competition last year and wasn't disgraced when getting his ground.

Had 3 runs on the flat, winning a 1m6 handicap off 89 and then nowhere in 2 other races on unsuitable ground.

This season over hurdles:

2nd in a 4 year old grade 3 on soft ground. Beaten pretty easily by Risk Belle by 3 and a half lengths but was giving her 12 pounds (rated 137 in the UK).

Then raced on heavy at Xmas over 2m and finished 7th (nowhere near contesting the win).

At 2m, he probably has a bit of scope.

However, moving up in trip, I think he has a fair bit of improvement.

Sired by Golden Horn, who hasn't had too many jumps horses but he has had:

•First Street - best RPR of 152 over 2m4.
•Nemean Lion - looks equally effective over 2 and 2m4
•Mark of Gold - won recently over 2m5
•Stag Horn - best form over 2m4+

He does have a decent profile for this:

•JOB trained
•Right age - 5 to 6 year olds do well here with 13 of the last 15 winners that age.
•Will be held up, which is a good thing for this race where the conditionals can go off too quick and the new course suits held up horses over hurdles.
•Good graded form

We may know by Sunday that he isn't coming here as he was taken out of the Coral Cup today but NRNB at 25/1 is a very decent price.

[AaronLad]

Thanks for that post DenmanSacre really good county suggestions and a great case for nusret, which Eggs is also keen on, he's going to be under serious consideration if left in at 6 day entries.

[Eggs]

….i’ve suggested him but the going is a consideration regarding Nusret, this is from JoB. Hopefully it falls into place;

’He is entered in three of the handicap hurdles and is likely to run. He’s the type that should be suited by a big field with lots of pace in front of him as he needs to be ridden with confidence and delivered late. The ground will play a big part in dictating which one he goes for. In general, the drier the ground the better his chance.’

[Lobos]

There seems to be a lot this year that require dry ground.

[RufusFlynn]

L'Eau du Sud is surely Skelton's most interesting in the County given that Faivoir & Knickerbockerglory are both declared for tomorrow's race at Sandown.

Although - sure his county winners have often come from off a big break - so maybe Playful Saint is the one?

[Lobos]

Faivour skipping Cheltenham according to Eggs

[Eggs]

Faivour skipping Cheltenham according to Eggs

…..not me, but he is entered to run in the Imperial Cup tomorrow.

[Quevega]

If he won he might still run.
Sure there is a bonus still.

[Eggs]

If he won he might still run.
Sure there is a bonus still.

…not sure about the bonus, I’d imagine there’d be plenty of WTAF offers if it was still in place.

[Quevega]

…not sure about the bonus, I’d imagine there’d be plenty of WTAF offers if it was still in place.

You might be right, think it might have been binned.
I suppose the ones to look out for are the ones needing a penalty to get in next week.

Headway, go dante and Bad, sans bruit

[Kevloaf]

Faivour skipping Cheltenham according to Eggs

Dan Skelton said it on RTV Road To Cheltenham preview today, just watched it myself

[FinalFurlong91]

You might be right, think it might have been binned.
I suppose the ones to look out for are the ones needing a penalty to get in next week.

Headway, go dante and Bad, sans bruit

Sans bruit looks very interesting dropped in trip with the hood he wore in france reapplied

[Odin]

Another tricky day but I think there's 4 good races to target here:

Triumph - put Salvator in to take on the Hendo stable form
County - Leau Du Sud looks the obvious one given Faivoir goes Imperial. Absurde another obvious one but they're OK prices now, not sure how they'll look post confirmations
Bartlett - Gidleigh goes in there if he goes - your yankee, your horse. I'll be disappointed in you if you don't put him in. Otherwise, I think Dancing City looks a good bet, it's obvious Willie thinks a lot of him from the comments he's made.
Pipe - nothing to add on my side compared to others. Quai De Bourbon too short now probably, Better Days Ahead could be a good bet and the case for Nusret is growing