Handicap Yankee 2024 - Captain: somer1

[somer1]

Going to give this a bump. I need to get this Yankee up by Sunday the 10th as have an early morning flight on the 11th. So the Handicap Yankee will have a cut off at midday on the 10th giving me time to reread,think,and ponder. Come on guys, as Pat Benatar sang " Hit me with your best shot "

[Istabraq]

I've grown quite sweet on Cossack Chach in the Fred Winter, still around 20s....

[Eggs]

…..here’s my main players and best current odds;

Ultima;
Amirite (16-1)
The Goffer (8-1)

Boodles;
Cossack Chac (20-1)
Nara (16-1)

Coral Cup;
Brazil (16-1)

Grand Annual;
Nothing strong as yet, a bit on Harper’s Brook. Probably double up on him if Hills offer tomorrow.

Pertemps;
Anna Bunina (33-1)
Le Milos (25-1)

Plate;
Theatre Man (7-1, can’t believe how short he is now)
Watch House Cross (33-1)

Kim Muir;
Bowtogreatness (20-1)
Whacker Clan (14-1)
(I liked Perceval but he’s been done no favours and I have doubts he’ll travel)

County;
Bialystock (14-1)
Favour & Fortune (25-1)

Pipe;
Sa Majeste (4-1 hope he turns up here).

Been playing around doing e/w multiples of this lot in the hope a couple hit the mark. I’m of the view that you pick 4 selections and leave it to posters whether they back e/w or win only, with places on offer I’d imagine lots will play e/w on the handicaps.

[somer1]

Likes SM for the Pipe

[BigChaang]

I've been watching a few previews/ podcasts / and reading stuff this week .
so my own shortlist of stronger fancied horses here .,.
...................................
Chianti Classico , The Goffer , Twig - ultima ..
....................................
Milan Tino , Cossach Cach , An Bradan Feasa - boodles ...
.................................
Langer Dan - coral cup.
.........................
Icare Allen , Gabby's Cross , Hyland , Popova . - pertemps final.
........................
Whacker Clan - kim muir ...
........................
King of Kingsfield , L'eau du Sud , Impose Toi , Comfort Zone . - county hdl.
.................................................. .................................
Sa Majeste , Better Days Ahead , Waterford Whispers . - m. pipe .
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Got all of these backed .. plus a few others at big prices .. 99 % of them are n.r.n.b.
Expecting a few N/R's .
---------------------------------------- Do your best , Somer . .

[doctorwu]

Ive got at least 3 fancies for every handicap. This is an ok e/w acca.

Ultima-Chianti Classico
Coral Cup-First Street
Pertemps-Icare Allen
M.Pipe-Answer To Kayf

[Lobos]

Ultima The Goffer
Plate Shakem up'arry
Grand Annual My Mate Mozzie
County Faivoir

[That Horse]

Dancing on my own - Grand Annual
Crebilly - Plate
Pied Piper - County
Encanto Bruno - MP

[DenmanSacre]

Grand Annual

Madara 10/1

Brought over from France this season. Unseated and 6th in first races at Cheltenham but everything clicked when winning over 2m at the December meeting. Then won at the DRF beating Path D'Oroux and Solness and won it with plenty in hand IMO. Upto 143 now but this horse is 150+. Think he wins this and then gets stepped up next year to mid distances and will be winning graded races.

Ground won't be too important to him either so whether it's good to soft or soft/heavy, I don't think that will make a difference to him.


Plate

Shakem Up'Arry 14/1

Won over course and distance on NYD (last 5 winners all won at Cheltenham in that season) and 3rd in this race last year. Up 4 pounds from last year but he's a better horse than last year.

If you watch the Coral Gold Cup, he travels extremely well but stamina gives out over the 3m2 trip (not helped by some exuberant jumping).

Stepped back to 2m4 on NYD, he was held up on the heavy ground but came through 2 out to take on Frero Banbou and pulled away up the hill.

3rd on good to soft last year, won on heavy on course and distance this year. Ground again not an issue for this horse.

Martin Pipe

Answer to Kayf 16/1

I think he will end up longer odds on the day as it's an unheralded trainer/jockey combo but should be shorter for me.

Half brother to You Wear It Well (won mares novice last year). Sired by Kayf Tara whose progeny can go heavy or good to soft ground.

4 runs this season - won his maiden well over 2m beating What's Up Darling (1st and 2nd in a grade 3 and 5th in the Royal Bond) by 4 lengths but lengthening away at the finish. Not a 2 miler by any imagination so went into my tracker after this.

2nd run was in a rated novice over 2m4. Giving 10 pounds (ignoring jockeys claim) to Waterford Whisper proved too much but they drew well clear of the others.

3rd run at Xmas finishing a close up third in the Limerick 3m grade 2 novice hurdle, beaten 1 and a half lengths by Loughglynn and half a length by Stellar Story. Jockey couldn't claim his usual 7 pounds and did well in what ended up being a sprint.

4th run - gave weight to Captain Cody and Blizzard of Oz over 2m3 and beat them handily.

Gets into the Martin Pipe off 137 with his usual jockey on board. Stellar Story would race off 141 if coming here so looks leniently treated. A strong pace making it a stamina test is what he looks to want and is bred for. Could easily see him winning this then going to the Punchestown 3m grade 1 novice with a good chance.

Pertemps

Gaoth Chuil 8/1

Obviously well found in the market as she is the favourite but so many positives going for her.

•Came from the Leopardstown qualifier - 6 of past 8 winners from that race.
• Will be held up and produced late, which suits the new course handicap hurdles
•Still unexposed at 3m - only 2 runs with a 1st and 2nd.
• Smaller Irish trainers have done well in this race recently.
•Trainer noted this one early in the season as his graded class horse.
•Ground doesn't matter - can run well on heavy or good to soft ground

[Middle_Of_March]

Saint Roi (Grand Annual) and King of Kingsfield (County) are my two strongest handicap bets. I don’t see Crebilly being far away either in the Plate. Forward plan in the Kim Muir at a price

[Eggs]

….notice PP/BFSB have cut Quai de Bourbon to 7/2 fav for MP whilst pushing Sa Majeste out for both MP & Coral.

[Spectre]

Teh handicap chases are usually easier to figure out than the handicap hurdles.

I'd suggest the following:

The Goffer - Ultima
Crebilly - Plate
Inowayurthinkin - Kim Muir

All of which will won or go very close assuming a safe passage.

I'd then suggest a haymaker in the Grand Annual, a race that can throw up a horse at a price with the right profile:

Either Straw Fan Jack, who finished 4th in last seasons Arkle, and looks to be on a really nice mark. It feels like it's been a plan to run him over two and a half to get his handicap mark down, and as a result he's 9lb lower. He's also still very unexposed over fences with only 8 runs.

Or Frero Banbou who has seem money coming the last few days. The case for him is eary. He could get round Cheltenham blindfold now. He ran a big races in both of the two more recent two and a half mile big handicaps at the course, but despite running prominently a looking possibly the winner both times approaching the last he just didn't get home. The same tactics when he's managed to shed 10lbs in the handicap at the same time means he just has to go close in what looks a really disappointing renewal.

So my four would be

The Goffer
Frero Banbou
Crebilly
Inowayurthinking

And I'd be confident of walking away with a nice profit.

[Eggs]

….interesting, Frero Banbou (GA) also highlighted by Ruby Walsh at the PP preview. Still 25-1 Hills (50-1 with double odds boost).

[Captain Chris]

3 strongish fancies for me in the handicaps

Ultima - Chianti Classico
Plate - Shakemuparry
Grand Annual - In Excelsis Deo (14lbs swing with Madara for 3 and a bit lengths)

[Quevega]

I think there are reasonable reasons to not include Crebilly & Iknowthewayourthinking if the bets are being placed on Sunday.

They look very much like they have topped out the prices, and Jonjo just can't be totally trusted these days IMO. And although I can see the merits for Iknow, he was well backed at Dublin off a slightly lower mark and was well beat. They fancied him for that and he didn't deliver. Added to this, he was second choice to Perceval before his mark scuppered his participation.

Leau du Sud looks rock solid now as he may be Skeltons only runner in a race he has farmed and the form of the betfair is usually solid, he ran on the wrong part of the track and the winner is thought good enough to supplement for the CH.

Goffer looks like he would run a solid race also.

Then I'd throw out names like Gabbies Cross, Shamekupharry as ones with solid credentials and still have some juice in the price.

Maybe something from the grand annual from the bunch at the top rated below 150, Madara, Libberty, the most solid given the cheltenham seasonal form.

Cobden booked for Liberty Hunter which is another positive I reckon.