Day 2 Yankee 2024 - Captain That Horse

[That Horse]

Predators Gold - Ballymore
Langer Dan - Coral Cup
El Fabiolo - Champion Chase
Maughreen - Bumper

Job done, you can all go home.....

Only kidding.



We're likely to have short priced favs in the BANC, Champion Chase and the X Country so my initial thoughts would be to only include one of those races and maybe go for something in the Coral, GA and Bumper. I'm discounting the Ballymore unless we get confirmation somehow on who's turning up but more than happy to hear others' thoughts......

[Lobos]

You just know that everyone is going to do that Yankee now

[That Horse]

You just know that everyone is going to do that Yankee now

Two chances for me to get it right then

[Exar Essay]

You make a good point about the shorties. But what if we did all 3 with that rolling on to one in the GA or bumper?

Imagine FTF, El Fab, and Minella go in and we’re all cheering on say Sa Fureur in the Grand Annual. It wouldn’t be a life changer, but it might be a bit of fun getting that far.

Can absolutely see it your way too though

[Lobos]

Minella Indo won't go off that short in the XCC. You'd probably still get around 11/4 minimum at Decs time. That's a decent price in a Yankee.

[robith]

I cant eat value.

Just back fucking winners

[Eudipe]

Short priced FAVs:-
Ballyburn - Too uncertain to run (and too many uncertainties over the participation of others that I might consider as bigger priced selections in the race).
Fact To File - Mainly gutted he's likely to come here instead of the 'penalty kick' that he'd have in the Golden Miller (pocket talk!)... but also think this (old) course & likely opposition will ask bigger questions of him at odds on (currently).
El Fabiolo - Worthy FAV but too short for me @1/2 in a race that's likely to be a burn up with little margin for error.
Minella Indo - Comes alive at Cheltenham and looks a good thing to me here @ 9/4 NRNB.

H'caps/Bumper:-
Coral Cup - Sa Majeste could be thrown in off 140 (Irish) even with a likely big hike. Doddiethegreat also looks an obvious candidate and has been well touted off 132 but I generally find this race to be deadly year in and year out.
Grand Annual - Love this race being on the old course for proper 2 milers but it looks a fairly weak renewal in the making... Saint Roi looks to have been laid out for it and is on a fair mark 150 (Irish) but I wouldn't be keen on the usual exaggerated waiting tactics on him here and would suggest the same owner's In Excelsis Deo who looks fairly treated off 137 @ 14/1 NRNB (EW).
Bumper - I don't think we have seen any outstanding candidates in Ireland and I want to take the Irish form on with Quebecois @ 25/1 NRNB. He couldn't have won more impressively at Exeter in December and I've been backing him for this since Nicholls nominated him for it just after Captain Teague won the Challow.

[Kevloaf]

For anything in the Baring Bingham we'll need to know what Ballyburn's doing, so that has to be factored in.... would Slade Steal, or Ile Atlantique, or Mythical Power go off fav ... and do we fancy? I don't think so.....

Cross Country has only 4 horses that can win it, but Galvin, Delta Work, Coko Beach and Minella Indo - none stand head and shoulders above the rest. #GalvisWinsAll

The bumper. Jaysus..... and the hardest handicap of the week Coral Cup..... I'd want to avoid....

Which leaves BANC (gross odds on shot.... Fact To File got beat by American Mike and is ODDS ON)

....and QMCC where it's a 1 horse race.



Edwardstone each way? 4 that we KNOW will hit the frame instead, a running on Stay Away Fay?




Everyone will have the Ballyburn, Fact To File, El Fabiolo treble that day so not gaining a lot by having them?

[Istabraq]

Everyone has gone quiet on Romeo Coolio, Elliott said yesterday he'll come on a stone for his debut and we know how highly they rated the horses before that run.
Still represents a little each way value (for multi purposes), while everyone talks up the Mullins and Nichols horses I can see a good old fashioned gamble on this one on the day...

[robith]

Going against the F2F hype, and against my own habit of backing Irish.

I would like to make the case for Stay Away Fay. Well, a crap one cos I don't really know how to talk about these things. But

- A race that last 10 runnings has been dominated by British runners
- Trainer who loves a staying chaser - and has been unusually bullish on his chances
- Festival winner
- Looks every inch the dour stayer
- Placed in graded open company in a race that would not have been run to suit (for very sad reasons)
-Hasn't lost to American Mike

3/1 vs 5/6

[Rooster Booster]

Going against the F2F hype, and against my own habit of backing Irish.

I would like to make the case for Stay Away Fay. Well, a crap one cos I don't really know how to talk about these things. But

- A race that last 10 runnings has been dominated by British runners
- Trainer who loves a staying chaser - and has been unusually bullish on his chances
- Festival winner
- Looks every inch the dour stayer
- Placed in graded open company in a race that would not have been run to suit (for very sad reasons)
-Hasn't lost to American Mike

3/1 vs 5/6

This will be one of the most interesting pre race build ups imo. Nicholls will know exactly how much F2F has been talked up and it will irk him I suspect. If he thinks he has SAF in the shape of his life I expect him to get a bit spiky in the lead up to the race. If he stays a little more subdued I think the price gap will grow.

Also if Dans runs here then I don’t think he will be holding back either. Britains two most ‘bullish’ trainers versus the maestro. With Henry quietly and respectfully telling us what mighty form his fella is in. Could be a really fascinating build up this one.

[That Horse]

Thanks for all suggestions so far.

I've looked over the trends info that Eggs recently added to the threads and I'm currently favouring using the following 4 races;

BANC - likely a smallish field but potentially competitive given a Mullins hotpot and at least one, possibly two strong UK runners. I might even be able to dig my American Mike slip out of the bin if Gordon decides to supplement. However, as robith suggested above, I also like Stay Away Fay. I've not got a bean on Fact to File for this race but I'm thinking, fuck it, I may as well oppose him at the prices for the Yankee as well.
So, I'm open to hearing cases for horses not named Fact to File here.

Champion Chase - we can stick El Fabiolo in or look at the without markets to do something different.

Cross Country - if soft ground likely, the list of who can win is looking narrower and potentially favouring the reigning champion. As much as I'd like to see Minella Indo win it, I'm not heavily invested in any of the runners so happy to hear your views.

Grand Annual - I was reading the cases made for Straw Fan Jack by resident FJ geniuses ComplyOrDie and Studfarm254 . There's a ways to go before confirming this horse can get into the final field but he's an interesting one at a decent price and has that previous course form. Further thoughts welcome on any other runners of course.
----
The door isn't fully closed on the other races but....

Baring - speculation hasn't subsided over whether Ballyburn turns up here or supreme and I'm keen to avoid only having three live legs of a Yankee once fields are confirmed.

Coral Cup - historically looks a hard race to call.

Bumper - cases to be made for a few so could come back into play but consensus on the forum is that it looks a poor year so we could be taking a single figure price on something that is actually a bit shit.


What say you?

[Quevega]

Think we'll know a lot more by the Sunday so best to be patient.

Built for Ballymore or Ordinary Joe look interesting for the Coral cup.
And Madara and Path D'roux for the Grand Annual.
All are decent value right now but may well have been found by the time we pick as it becomes clearer who's running etc.

Ordinary Joe may go Pipe but Waterford Whispers and Sa Majeste look strong enough for JP in that and his Coral cup contenders look light, unless there's a move on Brazil.
Every chance we'll have an idea on these horses by the Sunday.

Bumper looks a fucking nightmare. And only 3 places usually.

Delta Work looks most solid especially as ground should be in his favour, again we should have an idea on this nearer the day.

If an each way yankee with 2 handicappers, and Delta as banker then going for something sexy at a price in the Ballymore might work especially if Ballyburn has been declared for the Supreme.

BANC might not offer 8 runners so riskier as an each way option.

[DenmanSacre]

As Q says, BANC is pointless if going each way as there will only be 2 places and the top 2 looks clear. Fact to File also wins it.

Ballymore - depends on Ballyburn. Predators Gold with 2 2nds in grade 1s is a decent each way shout.

Coral Cup - my record is woeful with only one winner and that was pissing about with the outsiders on the exchange when it was heavy. I like Nicholls Blueking D'Oroux. High enough at 148 but looks the grade 1 type in a handicap. Already won a grade 2 this season and found the 3m too much last time. Nicholls won it with a French bred 5 year old before as well. I'd consider the lightly raced Irish as well - Hiddenvalley Lake, Built by Ballymore, Nusret.

QMCC - ignore

XC - Delta Work. Loves the course. The softer the better.

Grand Annual - Sa Fureur, In Excelsius Deo or Triple Trade.

Bumper - I think Jasmin pisses in.

Wednesdays always quite difficult for the Yankee as the Ballymore usually has a short price winner, the QMCC has a short price fav each year, BANC isn't that competitive and so you're left with the other 4 races, one being a flat race and the other the most difficult handicap hurdle race to decipher.

Good luck!

[Kevloaf]

I think because when we et to the deadline, if we've only focussed on 4 races and one throws a curve ball .... then we'll be panicked for a selection

Perhaps trying to find the best bet in all 7 races and then seeing which 4 of those look best on Sunday would be a good plan.... (easier said than done!) I suppose the ideal scenario is the best 'win only' and best 'each way' horse in each of the 7 races and see what we come up with.



It's very busy on here at the moment so I'd lift stuff from the relevant individual threads as well in case we all miss something..... shoul dbe some excellent cases made over the next 2 weeks


Speaking of which, where is Viking Flagship now....