2025, The Odds on Offer

[Quevega]

I'd want 33s after that this far out

Yep his Kempton run already looked ropey vs his prices and the hype. Now this.
They might blame the snow they had in January

[Craigy14]

I'd want 33s after that this far out

Agree, 14’s is laughable!

[Bollinger]

I would suggest something not quite there, and may come of light.

Forums like this have a knack of ‘reacting’ very strongly.

From what was in evidence, the horse travelled (if a touch keen) mightily strongly and his jump at the water taking out several horses was fairly breathtaking.

14/1 for a horse who hit an RPR of 168 as a novice at Kempton a few months ago and is very highly regarded by Mr Mullins, who let’s not forget, made 2 written offers to buy the horse in late 2022, is still about right I feel.

We all had Galopin as ‘finished’ back last November.

That ended well for anyone who felt he wasn’t good enough for a Gold Cup a few months later……

Why don’t we just wait a few hours, or days even, to see what comes to light. We’re all ‘reactionary’ when the truth is probably a long way initial thoughts.

Lets just see.

(Quevega - the show is yours to react first).

[darlojim]

He was participating in the Grade 2 to experience the Rail, Ditch and Fence on Auteuil's outer chase track before next month's Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris. Despite jumping that daunting obstacle well and leading turning for home, he did not pick up in the straight.

“I’m sure there’ll be something amiss because it was too bad to be true really," said Reveley. "I was happy enough throughout the race, I wanted to change tactics, drop in and get him settled looking towards the Grand Steep.

“I didn’t think we went very fast and he did a big jump at the River so I let him go on, without going too fast.

“I was happy until the last bend and then I felt him really empty, there was nothing left. I was going to pull up but I popped the last. He was walking.”

[nortonscoin200]

Neatly summed up Bollinger.

[Exar Essay]

….pushed out to 14-1 GC with a few firms.

25s with PP, no doubt to trap some cash outs, looks fair.

If connections make the right sort of comments after (scoped dirty or similar) that could look very good.

[Quevega]

I would suggest something not quite there, and may come of light.

Forums like this have a knack of ‘reacting’ very strongly.

From what was in evidence, the horse travelled (if a touch keen) mightily strongly and his jump at the water taking out several horses was fairly breathtaking.

14/1 for a horse who hit an RPR of 168 as a novice at Kempton a few months ago and is very highly regarded by Mr Mullins, who let’s not forget, made 2 written offers to buy the horse in late 2022, is still about right I feel.

We all had Galopin as ‘finished’ back last November.

That ended well for anyone who felt he wasn’t good enough for a Gold Cup a few months later……

Why don’t we just wait a few hours, or days even, to see what comes to light. We’re all ‘reactionary’ when the truth is probably a long way initial thoughts.

Lets just see.

(Quevega - the show is yours to react first).

I couldn’t care less.

[FinalFurlong91]

"We all had Galopin as ‘finished’ back last November."

Did we?

[Guinness Village]

I didn’t. I did the magic willies beaten Yankee. First time out losers that actually, largely popped up at festival
GDC
ballyburn
fact to file
not so good Tullyhill
but despite some doubt, they did alright

[Bollinger]

I couldn’t care less.

You quoted that you believed his run at Kempton (or the race/opposition) was, to quote ‘ropey’.

What was ‘ropey’ about his Kauto Star Novice Chase demolishing as a correlation to his opening price of 16/1 for the Gold Cup, when it opened up 2 months later??

Firstly, the initial 16/1 most definitely wasn’t ‘ropey’ - that soon shortened into 8’s across the board within a week.

Secondly, his run he put up in the Kauto Star would have been good enough to win the King George as well, I’d be reasonably confident enough to suggest.

When a trainer suggests (as Noel George did early in Feb) thst he felt Il Est Francais would ‘probably win at both Cheltenham & Aintree’ if he was sent there, I know I’d be taking note of those quotes.

I just felt the market reacted far too quickly today. His run was, actually excellent. His jumping immaculate. Something wasn’t quite right near the end though. And we’ll all find out soon enough why.

Not that you could care a less, as mentioned.

[Quevega]

You quoted that you believed his run at Kempton (or the race/opposition) was, to quote ‘ropey’.

What was ‘ropey’ about his Kauto Star Novice Chase demolishing as a correlation to his opening price of 16/1 for the Gold Cup, when it opened up 2 months later??

Firstly, the initial 16/1 most definitely wasn’t ‘ropey’ - that soon shortened into 8’s across the board within a week.

Secondly, his run he put up in the Kauto Star would have been good enough to win the King George as well, I’d be reasonably confident enough to suggest.

When a trainer suggests (as Noel George did early in Feb) thst he felt Il Est Francais would ‘probably win at Cheltenham & Aintree’ if he was sent there, I know I’d be taking note of those quotes.

I just felt the market reacted far too quickly today. His run was, actually excellent. His jumping immaculate. Something wasn’t quite right near the end though. And we’ll all find out soon enough.

Not that you could care a less, as mentioned.

Looked brill at Kempton but subsequent events cast doubts as to strength of the form = ropey
is what I meant -ie not as good as it looked and felt at the time.
I agree on over reaction and it was too bad to be true.
But I’ve not backed him so not bothered.

edit - the trainer comment about Cheltenham and Aintree seemed hollow at the time and now it looks worse.
backing horses on the strength (even an ounce) of that sort of airy fairy comment is not for me.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I would suggest something not quite there, and may come of light.

Forums like this have a knack of ‘reacting’ very strongly.

From what was in evidence, the horse travelled (if a touch keen) mightily strongly and his jump at the water taking out several horses was fairly breathtaking.

14/1 for a horse who hit an RPR of 168 as a novice at Kempton a few months ago and is very highly regarded by Mr Mullins, who let’s not forget, made 2 written offers to buy the horse in late 2022, is still about right I feel.

We all had Galopin as ‘finished’ back last November.

That ended well for anyone who felt he wasn’t good enough for a Gold Cup a few months later……

Why don’t we just wait a few hours, or days even, to see what comes to light. We’re all ‘reactionary’ when the truth is probably a long way initial thoughts.

Lets just see.

(Quevega - the show is yours to react first).

Absolutely
Its obvious that was not his running, unless anyone thinks the horses that beat him yesterday would have done what he did at Kempton!!
As has been said, that Kempton display would probably have won the King George.
I will be waiting to hear what’s said and be keeping a close eye on the Gold Cup market.

[Istabraq]

I just felt the market reacted far too quickly today.

Nothing new here, though it's actually punters who overreact because if the odds were wildly wrong punters would be latching onto any ricks.
The fallout from Galopin des Champs getting beat about a length over 2m 3f on reappearance was laughable, obviously hindsight helps given what he's achieved since but still, that race was never going to have any bearing on where the Gold Cup went.

We know the Kauto Star form isn't great and I've never been in love with his Gold Cup price but for me it's too soon to dismiss his chances...

[Craigy14]

I don’t think anyone has dismissed his chances.

Given the bookies overreact to a defeat and push prices hugely, I think that’s what people were reacting to especially given the high profile nature he seems to be. He was 10/1 or slightly bigger pre race and was basically pulled up and was only pushed to 14/1. Now obviously there is something amiss so I’d expect a bigger price on that alone given the potential issues that may arise.

Add to that he also has no Cheltenham form so an undulating track isn’t a guarantee to suit either.

I thought he jumped really well yesterday and was travelling really well until he went out like a light. Th water jump was pretty special the way he jumped past 3 horses but seemed to land pretty hard there.

[Lobos]

Don't think anything will come to light. May just have undercooked him and the distance and ground was just too much. Maybe he's just a Kempton type and the GC might be a step too far. Would just back him to win the King George if I were a backer.