2025, The Odds on Offer

[Eggs]

….some folk chatting about this fella earlier, Lads offer;

William Munny Sup 16-1

[archie]

As my name has been taken in vain, I should probably put that 50% figure in context. It was part of a general scheme for calculating a 'fudge factor' for comparing a current ante-post price with a potential SP and, as far as I remember, it was, on average, 50% to face the starter in an individual race this far out. It reduced once the horse was back in training in the autumn and then further if it survived the December. We all hear about the big fish who don't make it but there are many others who go under the radar.
You have to factor in the vagaries of Mullins (and others) bingo for novice hurdlers and chasers, injuries, progression and all sorts of things for an individual horse. Who, for instance, would have considered a long range bet on Noble Yeats for the Stayers?
If we're talking Constitution Hill in particular, it was always my view that he would stay hurdling but, on here, in the media and in social media it seemed very much a 50:50 call. You could, in fact, get 6/4 CH for the CH last April so 50% would have looked reasonable back then. As I said at the start, it was only an average figure and you wouldn't be having the same argument this year. However, horses get more fragile as they get older and, while in my opinion, CH only has one logical 2025 target, he is also more likely to have a fitness problem this year than last. Now there is no-one better than NJH at getting fragile horses right for one big day but he is also top of the pops for not risking his stars if he's unhappy with them and that is laudable.

******

I wrote the above a couple of days ago but decided against posting as it might have generated more pointless discussion on betting tactics which are, after all, thoroughly personal and individual. I'm feeling sad at the moment because you want to see the best turn up in top form.

[archie]

Just to underline the above, of the 13 runners in last year's Gold Cup, only GDC, Bravemansgame, Ahoy Senor and Hewick are likely to run this year.

Also, only 4 of last year's 7 Champion Hurdle runners are even entered this year.

Plus, 4 out of 9 in last year's Ryanair are entered this time. Ga Law may be supplemented but I doubt that the original 4 will all run.

[Eggs]

….i read somewhere that Sa Majeste is one to watch over fences next season;

Sa Majeste Turners 20-1 Lad.

[Odin]

….i read somewhere that Sa Majeste is one to watch over fences next season;

Sa Majeste Turners 20-1 Lad.

On this one - worth being aware the Willie has Ballyburn and Impaire Et Passe who could both end up being 2.5milers next year and that's without even considering Ile Atlantique, Predators Gold and/or any others who might come out of the woodwork.

[Lobos]

….i read somewhere that Sa Majeste is one to watch over fences next season;

Sa Majeste Turners 20-1 Lad.

Willie saying he could be a future Gold Cup horse. High praise.

[Eggs]

….Coral;

BDA Mares Chase 10-1
Bally Turn 3-1

[Kevloaf]

20/1 for a horse that's not even won his handicap yet, only 20/1
Jaysus.

Don't like the BDA at 10/1 Mares Chase either (novice races surely too much of a lure against this group of novice hurdlers)

and 3/1 Turners is one of the worst prices I've seen.



Not likely anyone disagrees but

[ComplyOrDie]

and 3/1 Turners is one of the worst prices I've seen.

Considering he's 12/1 for the Supreme/Turners double, the 3's is particularly woeful. If he loses the Supreme he's going to be bigger, even if he wins the Supreme he's still probably going to be around the 5/1 mark for both the Arkle & Turners, you'd imagine.

[Eggs]

Considering he's 12/1 for the Supreme/Turners double, the 3's is particularly woeful. If he loses the Supreme he's going to be bigger, even if he wins the Supreme he's still probably going to be around the 5/1 mark for both the Arkle & Turners, you'd imagine.

….that Sup/Turn offer was 33-1 not long ago, I think PP were convinced he was heading BB.

Edit; that offer was posted here on 31st Jan.

[FinalFurlong91]

Has anywhere priced up impaire et passe for the arkle?

[Eggs]

Has anywhere priced up impaire et passe for the arkle?

….i’ve not seen it, Coral offer 20-1 IEP Turn.

[Zachx02]

….i’ve not seen it, Coral offer 20-1 IEP Turn.

Had some of that, cheers eggs

[FinalFurlong91]

….i’ve not seen it, Coral offer 20-1 IEP Turn.

Hmm I can see him In the arkle and ballyburn In the turners

[Eggs]

…..for those that aren’t aware, Sky have formed a number of markets for next year.