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I'm far from convinced Lossie will go to the Champion Hurdle. Don't forget we used to listen to that conversation at this time of the year every year with Quevega. And I'd say if Constitution Hill shows there are no lasting effects, that there's zero chance she goes to the race.
If she beats State Man then she’ll go Champion Hurdle imo Paul. That victory, should it happen, would put her bang there on ratings. Don’t think Constitution Hill will change that thought process, especially with CH having nothing to beat over here.
As someone posted on rprs CH performances were on a decline end of season before last. I hope he does, but it’ll be some doing to get back to the figures he was posting Cheltenham 23’ and pre Cheltenham that season. He does have age on his side though.
I fully understand the concern with Lossiemouth running in the Mares Hurdle, not the CH. And the comparisons to previous Mares with Mullins that could've probably run in the CH and ended up repeatedly in the Mares. Annie Power did run in the Stayers for RR and Mullins as a 6yo mind, so you know, some sort of precedent for them targeting a Championship Race this season. So I'm choosing to take them on face value that she'll be heading to the Champion Hurdle...
Then there's the news of Brighter Days Ahead going chasing. Of course there's even the possibility she could revert back to hurdles and certainly wouldn't be the first mare to do so. But the intention is clear that'll be a chase campaign. I've backed her for the Turners already but I wouldn't be confident she'll run there, and the Mares Chase is an obvious option. Especially if something like Ballyburn heads to the Turners looking like the second coming.
So sticking with the Plan A's of Lossiemouth going CH and BDA going chasing, that leaves a big gap for the Mares Hurdle - as Lobos pointed out. Which brings me to a very obvious conclusion of Golden Ace. I think the readily available 10/1 has to be amongst the best value out there at the moment. A previous festival winner, 4/4 over hurdles, top RPR matched on both good and soft ground, won over 2m 4f+ on the new course so stamina for old course not a real concern. Every reason to think there's more improvement to come, turning 7 and lightly raced. Pretty obvious target I'd have thought and connections the thing holding the price up. Which if the other two step aside could end up looking very big.
Not had a Cheltenham bet for a few months but I'm about to if nobody can put me off
I fully understand the concern with Lossiemouth running in the Mares Hurdle, not the CH. And the comparisons to previous Mares with Mullins that could've probably run in the CH and ended up repeatedly in the Mares. Annie Power did run in the Stayers for RR and Mullins as a 6yo mind, so you know, some sort of precedent for them targeting a Championship Race this season. So I'm choosing to take them on face value that she'll be heading to the Champion Hurdle...
Then there's the news of Brighter Days Ahead going chasing. Of course there's even the possibility she could revert back to hurdles and certainly wouldn't be the first mare to do so. But the intention is clear that'll be a chase campaign. I've backed her for the Turners already but I wouldn't be confident she'll run there, and the Mares Chase is an obvious option. Especially if something like Ballyburn heads to the Turners looking like the second coming.
So sticking with the Plan A's of Lossiemouth going CH and BDA going chasing, that leaves a big gap for the Mares Hurdle - as Lobos pointed out. Which brings me to a very obvious conclusion of Golden Ace. I think the readily available 10/1 has to be amongst the best value out there at the moment. A previous festival winner, 4/4 over hurdles, top RPR matched on both good and soft ground, won over 2m 4f+ on the new course so stamina for old course not a real concern. Every reason to think there's more improvement to come, turning 7 and lightly raced. Pretty obvious target I'd have thought and connections the thing holding the price up. Which if the other two step aside could end up looking very big.
Not had a Cheltenham bet for a few months but I'm about to if nobody can put me off
….personally prefer Dysart Eno’s. Unbeaten in bumpers and over hurdles,including a 9l beating of Golden Ace at Aintree.
Also, GA wasn’t far ahead of Birdie or Bust in MNH, 33-1 for that one could be a bit of value in MH. Birdie or Bust finished ahead of Jade de Grugy who’s a best 5-1 for that race.
One factor I've been considering is likely first runs. The Hatton Grace may be the race where Lossiemouth makes her debut. She will likely face Teahupoo. How would you price that race up?
It's a risk but I'd probably side with Teahupoo, partly because Mullins can start slow. If Lossiemouth lost, she would get pushed out and that's a reason I'm not in a rush to back her or put her in multiples yet. Of course, I could very well be wrong and she wins and goes short. But I don't think she can get much shorter if Constitution Hill and State Man remains healthy.
One factor I've been considering is likely first runs. The Hatton Grace may be the race where Lossiemouth makes her debut. She will likely face Teahupoo. How would you price that race up?
It's a risk but I'd probably side with Teahupoo, partly because Mullins can start slow. If Lossiemouth lost, she would get pushed out and that's a reason I'm not in a rush to back her or put her in multiples yet. Of course, I could very well be wrong and she wins and goes short. But I don't think she can get much shorter if Constitution Hill and State Man remains healthy.
I believe they might throw her up against Teahupoo in the HG as well. If they did then I'd be expecting her to beat him. If she got beat then I'm not sure they'd continue with the CH route and instead go back to the Mares Hurdle. Willie does have a few others he can send to the race though so it might not happen.
….personally prefer Dysart Eno’s. Unbeaten in bumpers and over hurdles,including a 9l beating of Golden Ace at Aintree.
Also, GA wasn’t far ahead of Birdie or Bust in MNH, 33-1 for that one could be a bit of value in MH. Birdie or Bust finished ahead of Jade de Grugy who’s a best 5-1 for that race.
Dysart Enos would absolutely be on my shortlist, and probably be second at the prices. I'm not one to take bumper form too literally though, so happy to ignore than 9l. And she's beaten absolutely nothing over hurdles has she?
DE really needs to improve her jumping to be competitive here. I appreciate Golden Ace has plenty of brushing up to do there herself but DE would be losing ground at every hurdle imo. Seems to balloon them. Also a bit of a concern that they pulled her out on soft ground at Aintree, as an antepost position.
If you're somewhat 'building a book' I get why you'd want her onside. If I could workout early running plans I'd bring her onside, as she's certainly got the engine to put some good ground early season wins together regardless of hurdling technique. But I wouldn't be relying on her as a single antepost bet at this point personally.
Golden Ace seems the safer play though imo. Even given the shorter price.
I'll try and answer my thoughts on Lossie more fully, and wrap up the Mares Hurdle too. She definitely could go either way, so the Mares Hurdle market in particular is a risky proposition, because nothing is good enough to touch her if she goes that way.
With regards Lossie going to the Champion Hurdle I'd currently be 30/70. I agree that she's most likely to start out in the Hattons Grace if she starts early. State Man won't go that way, and I think Mullins might want to keep the two of the apart until Festival time anyway. There's plenty of opportunities to do so. Teahupoo if it came up soft enough would be a big enough handful for Lossie I think, and it's possible Mullins might avoid giving her a hard race so early in the season. Let's not forget he was happy enough starting her out late last season, and he used to do the same thing with Quevega.
With regards comparisons to those real top notch Mares that went before her, neither Quevega or Benie des Dieux ultimately went that way, and both were talked of as Champion Hurdle horses. Annie Power did so because she was top rated that year, and it was a weak renewal. In other words Lossie ultimately going to the Champion Hurdle would mean a complete change of thinking from Willie, because it's likely that at least two horses will be rated higher than her. Essentially, when push comes to shove, he takes the easier option, and doesn't risk his own Mares against either his best alternatives or the best opposition elsewhere. The point Craig makes about Lossie possibly beating State Man somewhere along the way is the only way I see it happening, but I think it's more likely he keeps them apart, and ultimately leaves State Man to win the Champion Hurdle and Lossie to win the Mares Hurdle. All his instincts will be screaming 'I can win both races' just as they have every single time in the past.
As for the Mares Hurdle, I think it's worth working on the basis that Lossie goes to the Champion Hurdle. Currently the MH market is priced as though she goes there, which creates value elsewhere. It will pay to be cautious though, and access to either cash out or the exchange is vital. I also would prefer Golden Ace and Dysart Enos to Jade de Grugy and Kargese (another reason why I think Mullins will bring Lossie here), and would be inclined to have both onside at their respective prices. Pricing the market without Lossie, I'd have them both nearer to the 3/1-4/1 mark. Jade de Grugy is much too short given both Golden Ace and Birdie Or Bust finished ahead of her in the Mares Novice Hurdle. That said she looks as though she'd benefit for a step up in trip. I also think she'd benefit for a fence though. She's a big old unit, and I wonder if they'll do the same as Brighterdaysahead and go chasing where I'd expect her to improve again.
There is a horse that I think is completely overlooked, is a huge price, and is actually the only horse I currently have onside for the race at the moment. I also think for a horse that's currently 66/1 it's remarkably easy to make the case. Albeit, I need to caveat by saying I've not heard it confirmed she stays hurdling. Gala Marceau had a terrible prep last year. she was beaten into second on her late seasonal debut by a racefit Ashroe Diamond, when Willie Mullins conceded she'd need the race. I've watched that race back subsequently and she was carrying plenty of condition, so the visuals confirmed that. She then ran 3 weeks later in bottomless ground, hated every second of it and completely flopped. She also had a really hard race. Willie Mullins admitted immediately afterwards that he'd made a big mistake letting her run, and that there was genuine doubt that he could get her back for Cheltenham, particularly with another short 3 week turnaround. They decided to chance their arm at HQ, and she unsurprisingly ran no kind of race, again on heavy (but at least not bottomless this time) ground which she still hated.
Looking back retrospectively at her career, she's clearly only a small margin short of Lossiemouth in terms of ability. She met her 4 times the previous season being beaten 7l, 2l, 2l, and 4l. And in that same season went on to beat Losange Bleu in the French Champion 4yo. Losange Bleu is widely regarded as the best current hurdler in France, and only a couple of months ago won the French Champion Hurlde as a 5yo. That win over Losange Bleu was also over 2m4f The Mares Hurdle trip.
Wind forward from the Festival where she ran no race, Mullins had a week shy of 2 months to freshen her up for Punchestown, where she again met Lossimouth in the Mares Champion Hurdle. Back over 2 miles she was given the job of taking the race on from the front, and she burnt off everything easily barring Lossie, who picked her up at the last and won by 7 lengths. Ridden with a little more restrain that could have been less, but notably she had Ashroe Diamond 20 lengths in her wake. The run on RPR's was rated equal of her beating Losange Bleu in the Frech 4yo Champion, and ahead of any of her prior performances against Lossie. I actually had her 5lbs higher than the RPR she was allotted, but I understand why they were conservative in their rating given her previous runs that season. I rated her run though Lossie and not the other way round. I had Lossie running to 155, which on strict interpretation would be 148 for Gala Marceau, but she won well and I deducted 3lbs from Gala to be cautious. This was a true run race and the 140 she was actually allotted is much too low in my opinion.
The interesting thing about both of those ratings is this:
Lossie last season was running consistent mid-150 RPR's. In open company add 7lbs for her mares allowance and that puts her around 162, which still leaves her 8lbs to find with State Man. And lets not forget prior to Constitution Hill, that was having his arse handed to him by Constitution Hill, who hit 177 the prior year before his illness. That's more than a stone she has to find if he comes back fit and healthy. She's also not an inexperienced horse. She's run 9 times over hurdles now. And for perspective, Constitution Hill has only run 8 times over hurdles. And for completeness State Man has run 15 times, and he hits 168-170 with remarkable consistency. that's the first benchmark she has to reach, and if she can't do it pre-Festival, there's not a chance she goes to the Champion Hurdle. If she can she will. Then it's all about whether Consitution Hill is able to replicate the high 170's he was before. Let's consider he hit 174 as a novice, which is absolutely remarkable. In other words he only has to replicate his form as a novice just to turn the race into a parade irrespective of what turns up on the day. If he hits teh 170's prior to the Festival, there is literally no chance Lossie turns up for the race. I'd say his current price of 5/2 is generous and worth playing to find out, and I'd much rather that than the 7/2 best for Lossie, when she potentially has to find a stone and half of improvement to beat him. Again for perspective she is still shy of Epatante in terms of ratings, and Epatante won the weakest Champion Hurdle I remember. it's well worth a look back at what she beat for perspective. That said I think she will ultimately prove to be better than Epatante, but she will need to surpass her by some way, because the opposition is much better than Epatante ever had to face. State Man is much better than Epatante, and as I said he may not even be the toughest opposition.
With regards Gala Marceau, she will surely be better campaigned this season, and if so, given I already have her as mid-140's horse, I'd say with natural improvement she will be a 150's. Plenty good enough to beat the likely opposition. She's very good in her own right, and I think she's at her best over 2m4f. Also I suspect most would agree that neither Golden Ace or Dysart Enos are good enough to get withing a couple of lengths of Lossie. Gala Marceau has and is. You just need to go back to her baseline form which is easy to read if you look at the context of her runs last season. Essentially, without Lossie I think she's the best horse in the race. In fact I would say that anyone who thinks Lossie wins the Champion Hurdle should be lumping on her at 66/1 rather than on Lossie at 7/2. It's a much better bet. Each way of course, because I still think Lossie will come here!!
Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
Could Lossie be sent over for the Fighting Fifth? Willie has hinted at sending more over here for the trainers championship so that could be a starting point against Constitution Hill
….Gala Marceau is a fascinating shout Spectre, that win in France last year was so impressive and 66-1 is a big old price for MH. Bit of a cliff horse for me so I’ve had to add her at those odds.
Not seen any mention of Regent's Stroll on here? Been sold this week as the most expensive jumps horse to go through at the Goffs Doncaster sale, I think I read. Of course that's pretty meaningless, other than a headline and slight hype that may be around him when he runs.
Won two bumpers well last year. And is it worth noting it was Nicholls involved in the winning bidding for a horse already in his yard?
Of course being Nicholls he's a future staying chaser, who I suppose could skip Cheltenham. He seems to be back into it the last couple of years though. With a few good runners in both the AB and Ballymore.
Regent's Stroll would strike me as more of an AB type. Where I've probably never been able to pick the winner antepost this early to be fair! Concern he'll get the recent Nicholls treatment of looking good in the Challow and then being put in his place in the Ballymore. But 33s for the AB, where he's at least had more recent success, seemed of slight interest... As far as AB antepost picks go
Not seen any mention of Regent's Stroll on here? Been sold this week as the most expensive jumps horse to go through at the Goffs Doncaster sale, I think I read. Of course that's pretty meaningless, other than a headline and slight hype that may be around him when he runs.
Won two bumpers well last year. And is it worth noting it was Nicholls involved in the winning bidding for a horse already in his yard?
Of course being Nicholls he's a future staying chaser, who I suppose could skip Cheltenham. He seems to be back into it the last couple of years though. With a few good runners in both the AB and Ballymore.
Regent's Stroll would strike me as more of an AB type. Where I've probably never been able to pick the winner antepost this early to be fair! Concern he'll get the recent Nicholls treatment of looking good in the Challow and then being put in his place in the Ballymore. But 33s for the AB, where he's at least had more recent success, seemed of slight interest... As far as AB antepost picks go
….plenty of Oddschecker blue for him this morning, generally 25-1 now for AB.
Could Lossie be sent over for the Fighting Fifth? Willie has hinted at sending more over here for the trainers championship so that could be a starting point against Constitution Hill
I’d personally doubt it Zach.
Id suggest the Hatton’s Grace 2-3 weeks beforehand would be the likelier route, especially if Willie’s got her thumbmarked for Xmas at Leopardstown. the DRF and Punchestown end of April either side of March.
I think that Fighting Fifth would be a race too far.
If not present at the Hatton’s Grace, I’d expect her to be making her seasonal debut at Christmas.
Id suggest the Hatton’s Grace 2-3 weeks beforehand would be the likelier route, especially if Willie’s got her thumbmarked for Xmas at Leopardstown. the DRF and Punchestown end of April either side of March.
I think that Fighting Fifth would be a race too far.
If not present at the Hatton’s Grace, I’d expect her to be making her seasonal debut at Christmas.
The Unibet suited her really well this year so I could see them using that again as a prep
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