2025, The Odds on Offer

[Istabraq]

Are you putting her Cheltenham loss over that trip down to a bad ride?

Tough one; I don't think it was Jack's finest hour but he was fighting with the mare for the first half mile and maybe that just took enough out of her to stunt her finish.
At Aintree she changed gears up the straight and proved she had that acceleration which was missing at Cheltenham, and it's that gear change that I think makes her an Arkle horse...

[Odin]

Does no-one believe she’ll be am Arkle horse ?
I’m not sure there’s anything obvious in that division to scare her away, but I am of the view Ballyburn will
never be seen over 2m again….

Gordon Elliott quote regarding Firefox after Aintree last year:

"I thought Firefox ran a good race, there was no real excuse. He got the run of the race, he jumped well. He'll go chasing next season and be a proper two-mile chaser. The way he jumps a hurdle, you'd say he wants a fence. He's a good horse. It's always frustrating when you don't win but he ran a very good race so we're proud of him."

Leans towards him knowing who his Arkle horse is if they all get there safe and in form

[Istabraq]

Gordon Elliott quote regarding Firefox after Aintree last year:

"I thought Firefox ran a good race, there was no real excuse. He got the run of the race, he jumped well. He'll go chasing next season and be a proper two-mile chaser. The way he jumps a hurdle, you'd say he wants a fence. He's a good horse. It's always frustrating when you don't win but he ran a very good race so we're proud of him."

Leans towards him knowing who his Arkle horse is if they all get there safe and in form

Yes possibly, but it's also likely the Brighterdaysahead chasing discussion hadn't been had last April.
And it's easy to knock Firefox given he repeatedly came up short last season, I'd be surprised if that one turned out to be the leading Arkle horse over BDA...

[Ballybeen]

If she is as good as we all expect I’d be surprised if they don’t go for the easier option in the mares chase.

[Lobos]

If she is as good as we all expect I’d be surprised if they don’t go for the easier option in the mares chase.

She has a lot of making up to do after her dreadful performance this year.

[Odin]

Yes possibly, but it's also likely the Brighterdaysahead chasing discussion hadn't been had last April.
And it's easy to knock Firefox given he repeatedly came up short last season, I'd be surprised if that one turned out to be the leading Arkle horse over BDA...

I supect you'll know more than me but I've always got the vibe their thoughts have been get to the Gold Cup ASAP. Add that to Gigginstown loving staying chases and Bective Stud having Found A Fifty in the Arkle last year and it all fits together logically as a thought process for Elliott.

As an addition to that, although I can see the argument that he came up short, I also think it's a little harsh given he was blocked off in the Supreme and then only beaten half a length at Aintree when jumping very much like a chaser, compared to that one jumping faster and slicker like a hurdler (off memory). There's plenty of reasons for them to think they can turn around the form there if reopposing. Particularly if Ballyburn doesn't go that way and with Slade Steel/Mystical Power both being bred more like hurdlers.

[Istabraq]

If she is as good as we all expect I’d be surprised if they don’t go for the easier option in the mares chase.

If she's that good would they not set their targets higher than a 5/6 runner G2 ?

[Lobos]

If she's that good would they not set their targets higher than a 5/6 runner G2 ?

I'm pretty sure he meant to say he'd be surprised if they did go for the Mares Chase .

[Lobos]

Lets be honest with each other......the only real test she's had (at the Fez) she was beaten.
Perhaps we are missing a trick here. With Lossiemouth targeting the CH and BDH going chasing, the value bets now are clearly picking the Mares Hurdle winner .

[Spectre]

She'll only be 6 in March. I see no reason why they're find the need to potentially take on Ballyburn, Impaire Et Passe, and whichever of her own stablemates go there in Irish Point and Slade Steel. The point has already been made about Shattered Love not having the option of the Mares Chase too. Although that Turners was so weak she may have gone that way anyway.

She gets easier experience running against her own sex in the Mares Chase before stepping up to tackle the Gold Cup the following year. And also to answer the Arkle question, they've talked about her as a future Gold Cup horse for some time now, and the Mares Hurdle showed that two miles is far from ideal. A step up to two and half miles at Aintree showed just how much better she is already at that trip, so I don't see any way that she's run in the Arkle. Similarly I don't think they'd want to give her a tough race in the Brown Advisory.

I would say in percentage chance by race:
Mares Chase 80%
Turners 20%
Arkle 0%
Brown Advisory 0%

[Spectre]

Lets be honest with each other......the only real test she's had (at the Fez) she was beaten.
Perhaps we are missing a trick here. With Lossiemouth targeting the CH and BDH going chasing, the value bets now are clearly picking the Mares Hurdle winner .

I'm far from convinced Lossie will go to the Champion Hurdle. Don't forget we used to listen to that conversation at this time of the year every year with Quevega. And I'd say if Constitution Hill shows there are no lasting effects, that there's zero chance she goes to the race.

[Lobos]

The Mares Hurdle is over 2 1/2 miles as well Spectre but I get your point and agree . She's got it all to prove yet but has age in her side. Start low.

Edit.....silly me, you meant the Mares Novice Hurdle which is of course over the minimum. Agree nonetheless.

[Lobos]

I'm far from convinced Lossie will go to the Champion Hurdle. Don't forget we used to listen to that conversation at this time of the year every year with Quevega. And I'd say if Constitution Hill shows there are no lasting effects, that there's zero chance she goes to the race.

They'll certainly aim her that way but time will tell if she proves good enough. We all know Willie ain't scared of anything . They can always fall back into the Mares Hurdle in which she'd go off a 1-4 shot so the current 9/4 looks the bet of the century should she end up in the race. All very intriguing.

I'm thinking/hoping she may take on Teahupoo in the Hattons Grace so we could get our answer very early indeed. What a race that would be !

[Istabraq]

She'll only be 6 in March. I see no reason why they're find the need to potentially take on Ballyburn, Impaire Et Passe, and whichever of her own stablemates go there in Irish Point and Slade Steel. The point has already been made about Shattered Love not having the option of the Mares Chase too. Although that Turners was so weak she may have gone that way anyway.

She gets easier experience running against her own sex in the Mares Chase before stepping up to tackle the Gold Cup the following year. And also to answer the Arkle question, they've talked about her as a future Gold Cup horse for some time now, and the Mares Hurdle showed that two miles is far from ideal. A step up to two and half miles at Aintree showed just how much better she is already at that trip, so I don't see any way that she's run in the Arkle. Similarly I don't think they'd want to give her a tough race in the Brown Advisory.

I would say in percentage chance by race:
Mares Chase 80%
Turners 20%
Arkle 0%
Brown Advisory 0%

The Gold Cup argument is a fairly compelling reason not to back her in the Arkle, but I don't buy her failing in the Mares Novice Hurdle and improving for the step up at Aintree.
A decent ground 20f Aintree race is about as easy as it gets in terms of stamina, her gear change struck me that day, that's not to say she can't get further but I was impressed by her acceleration and it told me she was a 2 miler.
I've watched the mares nov hurdle back and she was very keen, I'm now convinced that's what got her beat.

There are also a number of questions around race conditions we ought to have in the back of our mind; the Turners was mooted to be turned into a limited handicap, The NH Chase could be culled which could impact all the novice chases, and the whole novices in handicaps discussion may be coming to a head which will naturally affect every chase.

The smart bet is no bet, but gun to my head if I had to throw a fiver on which race she'd have more chance of winning I'd say Arkle...

[Lobos]

The Lossiemouth ( MH) and BDA (MC) Double is currently a shade under 14/1 for anyone thinking they'll end up in those races. Big return for little risk