2025, The Odds on Offer

[Benjy23]

I'm probably in a minority of one here but I still think Stay Away Fay can make into a Gold Cup horse, I genuinely think the 100/1 quotes are an overreaction and he represents rare value in the AP markets.
I'm not convinced he would have been in love with the ground in his BANC, he lost a shoe and scoped dirty after the race.
I could be tempted into playing him now on the basis he could go to Aintree and win and that 100/1 becomes 25s, but I didn't pick up any post BANC comments about his plans, if he's put away for the year then there's no rush....

Aye, I'm not completely against him either. My point was that the BANC didn't go well. So it's not exactly a plan that's isn't broken... or whatever the statement was for Nicholls targeting the BANC.

Think the Gold Cup is more likely to suit SAF than the BANC was. And the excuses exist for that run being too bad to be true as well. Certainly wouldn't give up him. I just didn't want that to distract from the actual point

[Craigy14]

Assume this is meant to be agreeing that the any price is the better bet rather than disagreeing?

So this is fairly irrelevant but anyway... I'm not sure it's a particularly recent successful trend for Nicholls that is it? Stay Away Fay could've been seen as a future Gold Cup horse that went BANC and wasn't particularly successful. Not many others I can think of. I'm reluctant to look back to the Denman years to see how Nicholls now trains tbh.

I'd also have BANC is the more likely target of the two. But if you're suggesting it's the bet aren't you pricing it at like 1/8 he ends up there? Not sure I'd have it that strong

Well aye but most on here are on at at least 25/1+ so not really

It’s not just the success rate though it’s the way he campaigns his future Gold Cup horses. Bravemansgame, Topogthegame, Stay Away Fay. I didn’t say they had to win, what they did doesn’t affect Caldwell Potters chances does it, that’s just silly.

[Eggs]

….Caldwell Potter 10-1 any race (from 14-1) PP/BFSB, looking like FJs moved the market again.

[Lobos]

….Caldwell Potter 10-1 any race (from 14-1) PP/BFSB, looking like FJs moved the market again.

Only 6's with Skybet

[Benjy23]

Well aye but most on here are on at at least 25/1+ so not really

It’s not just the success rate though it’s the way he campaigns his future Gold Cup horses. Bravemansgame, Topogthegame, Stay Away Fay. I didn’t say they had to win, what they did doesn’t affect Caldwell Potters chances does it, that’s just silly.

Aftertiming a price that's gone is definitely irrelevant! The 14s or the 16s was the discussion, as best available at the time.

I'm not sure I follow the end of the second paragraph but fair play, let's move on. GL with the BANC bet regardless.

[Craigy14]

Aftertiming a price that's gone is definitely irrelevant! The 14s or the 16s was the discussion, as best available at the time.

I'm not sure I follow the end of the second paragraph but fair play, let's move on. GL with the BANC bet regardless.

It’s relevant to the fact I don’t think many would back him at 16/1, would you? So the 14/1 is only decent if you think backing at 16/1 is decent imo, yes you get the added insurance of any race but the second paragraph would be my opinion he’ll be campaigned for the BANC as that what nicholls tends to do with his Gold Cup horses.

He may obviously change his way and everything I’ve said is irrelevant

[Saxon Warrior]

We were also looking at the difference in backing

A particular race (BANC) at 16/1 with cashout until end Jan (maybe?)

Vs

14/1 or 10/1 any race (likely any of 2 races) with no cashout, (or doubles/multi potential)

The good thing in all this is we've had different choices, for a good horse, to assess and either leave or take.

[Eggs]

….Constitution Hill in veterinary hospital with suspected colic;

https://www.attheraces.com/news/2024/March/31/constitution-hill-in-veterinary-hospital-to-monitor-suspected-colic

[Lobos]

What a mess. Such a shame what's happened to him this season. Personally don't think we'll see him on a racecourse again. Bookies clearly thinking the same as all three of Willie's smashed up.

[Eggs]

….Sky offer a ‘Willie Mullins Repeat’;

F2F, Lossie, Bally & Gaelic to win a/r @ 66-1

[Odin]

What a mess. Such a shame what's happened to him this season. Personally don't think we'll see him on a racecourse again. Bookies clearly thinking the same as all three of Willie's smashed up.

Whilst I understand it, it doesn't half feel morbid that a horse could genuinely be/have been on the brink of death and people are betting/changing prices based on the other opportunities it provides.

I know it's the game and I wouldn't criticise anyone who takes advantage of it, it just isn't something I'd be able to do on a personal rather than gambling level.

[Zachx02]

Thanks to whoever highlighted the 33s on Jade Du Grugy, into as low as 4s now

[Faugheen_Machine]

Thanks to whoever highlighted the 33s on Jade Du Grugy, into as low as 4s now

I'm surprised just how low they've cut her after that win. It was workman-like, rather than impressive to my eye.

[darlojim]

I'm surprised just how low they've cut her after that win. It was workman-like, rather than impressive to my eye.

I like her, but yeah incredibly short 12 month out now when she could go chasing too. Peter Moloney mentioning she's a big scopey type in the post race interview. I'd rather back Lossie at 5/2 than Jade at 5/1

[Faugheen_Machine]

I like her, but yeah incredibly short 12 month out now when she could go chasing too. Peter Moloney mentioning she's a big scopey type in the post race interview. I'd rather back Lossie at 5/2 than Jade at 5/1

The owner has Kargese too, who surely stays over hurdles next season.

I'm hoping she rocks up at Aintree on the Thursday.