Tweet
The 'Doing A Naiad' is now an annual Fat Jockey tradition, and we're now at that time of the year again. So the Plan is to do the live announcement of this years Naiad at 7.30pm this coming Monday 19th February. All details with the link will be supplied on this thread immediately beforehand. However, after the last couple of years I'd advise getting on as quickly as possible. This site struggles to cope with the volume of people getting the link. We will delay slightly if necessary though to allow everyone to get on.
For anyone new this year, the back story for this is on the previous annual threads, so I won't repeat it. If you're interested, just type 'Doing A Naiad' into the search box and you'll find it.
The aim is that we all group together to take the bookies on at the same time, taking the best possible price, all at the same time, not giving the bookies sufficient time to react until we are all on to the stake we want, and then we watch the price tumble, usually to an SP in single figures. Essentially it is a Fat Jockey combined gamble, where we win together or we lose together as the big Team we are all year. The bookies hopefully take a bashing, when they don't know what hit them, and the gamble goes down in FJ folklore when it lands.
The criteria for the Naiad is that it's a horse that you can make a very good case for it winning, but at the very least you can't see it out of the places. And the correct price is the single figure price that we drive it to well ahead of the day. And I can assure you, this years Naiad fits the bill perfectly. I think we have a winner!
Our record of doing this over the last three seasons is pretty good, and is well ahead in P&L terms. And the P&L for doing this since the very first 'Naiad' when Naiad du Misselot won the Coral Cup is excellent. The first season on here was Happygolucky who finished an unlucky second after making a couple of late jumping errors. Having been backed form prices of 33/1 down to single figures he provided a very good place return. He then went to Aintree and won as easily as he liked. The second season was Galahad Quest advised nrnb. Sadly the owners hadn't got their money down and despite the trainer confirming the race was the plan, when we crashed him to single figure prices they looked to Aintree instead. Instead we did a mini-Naiad with Tea Clipper, advised at 25/1 and he finished in the places, for another decent return. Last years Naiad became a bit of scramble because the prices began to disappear before the announcement took place, so Nassalam was advised at 16/1, and we crashed him into single figures. Sadly he jumped poorly all the way round and never got into the race. But he was the right horse as his subsequent exploits show. He's now rated in the 160's with a Gold Cup entry, having beaten a good quality Welsh Grand National field 34 lengths. And to think I was criticised in some corners by some who said he wouldn't stay in the Ultima
You know who you are! And I'm only joking, I just couldn't resist.
It's great that every year the Fat Jockey's that are at Cheltenham on the day of the Naiad, meet by the parade ring and watch the race together on the big screen. We're a family that talk to each other all year long, sharing our interest and passion, that culminates in 4 fantastic days in March, so to get the opportunity to meet up with what seems to be an increasing number of Fat Jockeys each year when we do this is an absolute privilege. But that aside, whether we're at Cheltenham or not, we're all in this together.
One last note, that I do need to add a caveat before Monday. The prices this year have been especially short, and value is hard to find, so as a consequence it has required me to reset my sights on the price threshold. Also, I need a period of time so I can get my money down to build my position to the same returns as the original Naiad. Something I try to do bit by bit to avoid bringing the price down. There has been some movement though and it's forced my hand to go slightly earlier than I wanted to. Therefore, I want to do this years announcement before the entries are revealed the following day, and therefore avoid any further risk of a price contraction when the bookies reprice the markets. And if the price does contract further I may still need to pull the pin and delay Monday's announcement.
I hope you can all make it, and I can't wait to see you all on the live podcast on Monday.
For anyone new this year, the back story for this is on the previous annual threads, so I won't repeat it. If you're interested, just type 'Doing A Naiad' into the search box and you'll find it.
The aim is that we all group together to take the bookies on at the same time, taking the best possible price, all at the same time, not giving the bookies sufficient time to react until we are all on to the stake we want, and then we watch the price tumble, usually to an SP in single figures. Essentially it is a Fat Jockey combined gamble, where we win together or we lose together as the big Team we are all year. The bookies hopefully take a bashing, when they don't know what hit them, and the gamble goes down in FJ folklore when it lands.
The criteria for the Naiad is that it's a horse that you can make a very good case for it winning, but at the very least you can't see it out of the places. And the correct price is the single figure price that we drive it to well ahead of the day. And I can assure you, this years Naiad fits the bill perfectly. I think we have a winner!
Our record of doing this over the last three seasons is pretty good, and is well ahead in P&L terms. And the P&L for doing this since the very first 'Naiad' when Naiad du Misselot won the Coral Cup is excellent. The first season on here was Happygolucky who finished an unlucky second after making a couple of late jumping errors. Having been backed form prices of 33/1 down to single figures he provided a very good place return. He then went to Aintree and won as easily as he liked. The second season was Galahad Quest advised nrnb. Sadly the owners hadn't got their money down and despite the trainer confirming the race was the plan, when we crashed him to single figure prices they looked to Aintree instead. Instead we did a mini-Naiad with Tea Clipper, advised at 25/1 and he finished in the places, for another decent return. Last years Naiad became a bit of scramble because the prices began to disappear before the announcement took place, so Nassalam was advised at 16/1, and we crashed him into single figures. Sadly he jumped poorly all the way round and never got into the race. But he was the right horse as his subsequent exploits show. He's now rated in the 160's with a Gold Cup entry, having beaten a good quality Welsh Grand National field 34 lengths. And to think I was criticised in some corners by some who said he wouldn't stay in the Ultima
You know who you are! And I'm only joking, I just couldn't resist.It's great that every year the Fat Jockey's that are at Cheltenham on the day of the Naiad, meet by the parade ring and watch the race together on the big screen. We're a family that talk to each other all year long, sharing our interest and passion, that culminates in 4 fantastic days in March, so to get the opportunity to meet up with what seems to be an increasing number of Fat Jockeys each year when we do this is an absolute privilege. But that aside, whether we're at Cheltenham or not, we're all in this together.
One last note, that I do need to add a caveat before Monday. The prices this year have been especially short, and value is hard to find, so as a consequence it has required me to reset my sights on the price threshold. Also, I need a period of time so I can get my money down to build my position to the same returns as the original Naiad. Something I try to do bit by bit to avoid bringing the price down. There has been some movement though and it's forced my hand to go slightly earlier than I wanted to. Therefore, I want to do this years announcement before the entries are revealed the following day, and therefore avoid any further risk of a price contraction when the bookies reprice the markets. And if the price does contract further I may still need to pull the pin and delay Monday's announcement.
I hope you can all make it, and I can't wait to see you all on the live podcast on Monday.
Comment