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I see Jonny Dineen has put up Minella Indo for this, he’s my main fancy for the race. Ran a great race at the handicap in December only beaten 5 lengths. Reckon he’ll go off fav.
I think you’re right. I can’t think of many if any mid trip horses who have gotten home, but I can think of loads that haven’t.
I really fancied Ballycasey a few years ago. Knew he didn’t stay the trip but thought he could get home due to how the race is run. How wrong I was!
The original point Istabraq was replying to was about whether Conflated would get the 3m7f having 'not proven he gets 3m' .....
Whilst it looks like a lot of staying types have won the Cross Country (and they have), I personally wouldn't have any doubt at all that Conflated would get the trip in this particular race ....
I know there are some sectional gurus in here so perhaps they can provide some context as I can't back this up with any evidence, but I would expect the XC to be run at a considerably slower pace than that of a staying chase around a standard track because of the configuration of the course, and it stands to reason that if you're racing at a slower pace you should be able to go further.
That was my original point...
I know there are some sectional gurus in here so perhaps they can provide some context as I can't back this up with any evidence, but I would expect the XC to be run at a considerably slower pace than that of a staying chase around a standard track because of the configuration of the course, and it stands to reason that if you're racing at a slower pace you should be able to go further.
That was my original point...
I know its not the same but there are similarities between this and different greyhound tracks. If you look at track records around the various greyhound tracks the fastest mph occur on the galloping tracks and the mph reduces on tighter tracks because greyhounds run bends slower than they run straights and the tighter the bend the more they have to slow down in order to negotiate them. Despite this there is very little evidence to suggest running 850 metres round a tight track is meaningfully less taxing than it is round a galloping track.
Greyhound history is littered with examples of failed attempts to turn 6 bend dogs into marathon performers around tight tracks on the assumption that the breathers the dog is able to get in as it slows down round the tight bends will ensure it is able to maintain its pace for longer. Invariably the 8 bend dog picks the 6 bend dog up tight track or not tight track. Of course there are many examples of dogs equally capable of both 6 and 8 bends but conflated would not be an equine equivalent of that as it stands and so anybody assuming the track configuration will enable him to successfully handle a 25-30% increase in trip is (as you have fairly acknowledged) guessing with little or no evidence to back up their guess.
I know there are some sectional gurus in here so perhaps they can provide some context as I can't back this up with any evidence, but I would expect the XC to be run at a considerably slower pace than that of a staying chase around a standard track because of the configuration of the course, and it stands to reason that if you're racing at a slower pace you should be able to go further.
That was my original point...
Thats spot on. That shape of the XC course and the nature of the obstacles mean its run at a more stop start tempo and therefore horses that might look to struggle in a G1 over 3m can and do thrive over 3m6f under those circumstances. Hate MOL. Say it all day
I know there are some sectional gurus in here so perhaps they can provide some context as I can't back this up with any evidence, but I would expect the XC to be run at a considerably slower pace than that of a staying chase around a standard track because of the configuration of the course, and it stands to reason that if you're racing at a slower pace you should be able to go further.
That was my original point...
Just took a quick look at X-Country and Gold Cup data from 2023. X-Country is 3m6f and winning time was 8m40 which averages 17.3 secs per furlong. Gold Cup is 3m2f and winning time was 6m45 which averages 15.6 secs per furlong. Give the X-Country is much more twists and bends you'd expect it to be run at a slightly slower pace. So not a massive difference. Put another way at the Gold Cup pace would have taken them 7m48 secs to travel the extra 4 furlongs to 3m6 so that means the Gold Cup winner completes 3m6f only 52 seconds quicker than the X-Country which given the bends, twists and turns would suggest to my unskilled mind there is not a lot of difference in the pace being run between the two races. Now the fact the fences are tougher in Gold Cup may be a significant factor. But d'em is the facts. So, in conclusion, get your money on Conflated for the Ryanair. Just saying !
Just took a quick look at X-Country and Gold Cup data from 2023. X-Country is 3m6f and winning time was 8m40 which averages 17.3 secs per furlong. Gold Cup is 3m2f and winning time was 6m45 which averages 15.6 secs per furlong. Give the X-Country is much more twists and bends you'd expect it to be run at a slightly slower pace. So not a massive difference. Put another way at the Gold Cup pace would have taken them 7m48 secs to travel the extra 4 furlongs to 3m6 so that means the Gold Cup winner completes 3m6f only 52 seconds quicker than the X-Country which given the bends, twists and turns would suggest to my unskilled mind there is not a lot of difference in the pace being run between the two races. Now the fact the fences are tougher in Gold Cup may be a significant factor. But d'em is the facts. So, in conclusion, get your money on Conflated for the Ryanair. Just saying !
2 seconds a furlong is a massive difference isn't it?
Obviously comparing times on a different track and course completely is absolutely not worth doing but like the effort haha
Last edited by Kevloaf; 7 February 2024, 04:43 PM.
2 seconds a furlong is a massive difference isn't it?
Obviously comparing times on a different track and course completely is absolutely not worth doing but like the effort haha
To be honest I don't know if 2 seconds is massive or not given the circumstances/scenarios of the two races. I was just amusing myself and thought I'd share it. But I've convinced myself to have a bet on Conflated in Ryanair. And I will sleep better tonight.
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