2024 Cross Country Chase

[Irish Rugby]

I wouldn't be too concerned with Gordon being mob handed. The plan always seems to be cross country/national and all his top 3 have GN entries. He wants to pull the double off again.

[Quevega]

Did Galvin expend more energy than DW to get to the same position in the finishing straight and therefore had less left to give? I’ve not watched it back for a while, I don’t remember that being the case but all I can think of other than DW likes soft ground better than G does.

It didn't look like it, he was always keeping tabs from memory and recent viewing. They were upsides each other turning in.
Ground may be a factor and they are very closely matched/rated.

[Kevloaf]

Betway are 8/1 now NRNB for Conflated in this.

I know it's very likely this is a complete waste of time, but one of those times where the price is ridiculous and at least we KNOW the trainer wants to run there.... if he ran, he's at very best 7/2 so it's a fantastic no risk bet IMO

[Eggs]

I wouldn't be too concerned with Gordon being mob handed. The plan always seems to be cross country/national and all his top 3 have GN entries. He wants to pull the double off again.

….although I would be careful with Galvin. Elliott says he wont run at Cheltenham ‘if the going is very soft’ and will head straight to Aintree. Apparently there’s currently standing water on the XC course and the official going is ‘heavy’ so it’ll have to dry out a bit.

i get the impression they like his GN mark.

[TigerRolllllll]

Betway are 8/1 now NRNB for Conflated in this.

I know it's very likely this is a complete waste of time, but one of those times where the price is ridiculous and at least we KNOW the trainer wants to run there.... if he ran, he's at very best 7/2 so it's a fantastic no risk bet IMO

Great spot - I’ll enjoy the pennies I’m allowed on sadly

[charlie]

Betway are 8/1 now NRNB for Conflated in this.

I know it's very likely this is a complete waste of time, but one of those times where the price is ridiculous and at least we KNOW the trainer wants to run there.... if he ran, he's at very best 7/2 so it's a fantastic no risk bet IMO

Good spot. It's a real shame MOL is a twat.

[Folski]

Is this a stamina race or is it actually a speed race?

Since the change from a handicap:

2016: Winner Any Currency later Disq Josie’s Orders promoted. Time was 8m11s slow by 7sec, good ground, both horses had only won over 3m+ Stamina

2017: Winner Causes of Causes 8m12.3s slow by 8.3. COC had won over 1m3 on the flat, a listed hcap hdl at 2m and on the far side the 4miler. Inconclusive

2018: Tiger Roll soft 8m51.6 slow by 47.6. A triumph winner at 2m and at this point had also won the 4miler. Inconclusive

2019: Tiger Roll soft 8m27.28 slow by 23.28s again inconclusive

2020: Easysland soft 9m9.6sec slow by 65.6secs Easysland while having for over 3m6 had also won a hurdle over 2m

2021: Tiger Roll good to soft 8m42.65 slow by 38.65

2022: Delta Work heavy 9m8.68 slow by 64.68sec Delta work had won at 1m4 on the flat a maiden hurdle at 2m a G1 chase on good ground over 2m4 and G1 chases over 3m

2023: Delta work 8m39.4 slow by 35.4 again delta wins galvin no slouch himself having won bumpers and hurdles at 2m but all his graded for was over 3m.

im wondering when the good horses come into the home straight on the bridle is it just a case of a bit of a sprint for them. Will DW have too much of a turn of foot for MI in this?

[Quevega]

Is this a stamina race or is it actually a speed race?

Since the change from a handicap:

2016: Winner Any Currency later Disq Josie’s Orders promoted. Time was 8m11s slow by 7sec, good ground, both horses had only won over 3m+ Stamina

2017: Winner Causes of Causes 8m12.3s slow by 8.3. COC had won over 1m3 on the flat, a listed hcap hdl at 2m and on the far side the 4miler. Inconclusive

2018: Tiger Roll soft 8m51.6 slow by 47.6. A triumph winner at 2m and at this point had also won the 4miler. Inconclusive

2019: Tiger Roll soft 8m27.28 slow by 23.28s again inconclusive

2020: Easysland soft 9m9.6sec slow by 65.6secs Easysland while having for over 3m6 had also won a hurdle over 2m

2021: Tiger Roll good to soft 8m42.65 slow by 38.65

2022: Delta Work heavy 9m8.68 slow by 64.68sec Delta work had won at 1m4 on the flat a maiden hurdle at 2m a G1 chase on good ground over 2m4 and G1 chases over 3m

2023: Delta work 8m39.4 slow by 35.4 again delta wins galvin no slouch himself having won bumpers and hurdles at 2m but all his graded for was over 3m.

im wondering when the good horses come into the home straight on the bridle is it just a case of a bit of a sprint for them. Will DW have too much of a turn of foot for MI in this?

Excellent stuff and totally agree.

[charlie]

Is this a stamina race or is it actually a speed race?

Since the change from a handicap:

2016: Winner Any Currency later Disq Josie’s Orders promoted. Time was 8m11s slow by 7sec, good ground, both horses had only won over 3m+ Stamina

2017: Winner Causes of Causes 8m12.3s slow by 8.3. COC had won over 1m3 on the flat, a listed hcap hdl at 2m and on the far side the 4miler. Inconclusive

2018: Tiger Roll soft 8m51.6 slow by 47.6. A triumph winner at 2m and at this point had also won the 4miler. Inconclusive

2019: Tiger Roll soft 8m27.28 slow by 23.28s again inconclusive

2020: Easysland soft 9m9.6sec slow by 65.6secs Easysland while having for over 3m6 had also won a hurdle over 2m

2021: Tiger Roll good to soft 8m42.65 slow by 38.65

2022: Delta Work heavy 9m8.68 slow by 64.68sec Delta work had won at 1m4 on the flat a maiden hurdle at 2m a G1 chase on good ground over 2m4 and G1 chases over 3m

2023: Delta work 8m39.4 slow by 35.4 again delta wins galvin no slouch himself having won bumpers and hurdles at 2m but all his graded for was over 3m.

im wondering when the good horses come into the home straight on the bridle is it just a case of a bit of a sprint for them. Will DW have too much of a turn of foot for MI in this?

what a great post this is, a lot of work went into that. this place is fucking mustard, it really is.

[Hurricane fly]

Given most horses start out at 2m in a novice hurdle I'm not entirely sure that it should be given more credence over the fact that all have won over 3m+ over fences.

If it was speed would you not expect more than 2 horses to be in contention coming round the last bend / final fence? My memory isn't brilliant but I can't remember any being more than a 2 horse race of recent times which would suggest it does indeed become a stamina test.

[Quevega]

Given most horses start out at 2m in a novice hurdle I'm not entirely sure that it should be given more credence over the fact that all have won over 3m+ over fences.

If it was speed would you not expect more than 2 horses to be in contention coming round the last bend / final fence? My memory isn't brilliant but I can't remember any being more than a 2 horse race of recent times which would suggest it does indeed become a stamina test.

I think that's just the gulf in class.
I don't think they really race for the first half of the race then slowly gather or inject some speed where the course configuration allows and then start to race approaching the barrels and the two small fences prior to that, then they're on the course proper with 2 flights left.
The inferior horses normally just gradually fade away and very few are ever in it entering the straight.
So I personally do not see it as a stamina test at all (on average).
I think it will need a really well judged ride from Minella's jockey.

[Folski]

Given most horses start out at 2m in a novice hurdle I'm not entirely sure that it should be given more credence over the fact that all have won over 3m+ over fences.

If it was speed would you not expect more than 2 horses to be in contention coming round the last bend / final fence? My memory isn't brilliant but I can't remember any being more than a 2 horse race of recent times which would suggest it does indeed become a stamina test.

I’ve just had a look back at last year and the times from ITV and one sticks out like a sore thump it’s the 13.48s 2nd last furlong where Delta Work puts the race to bed. Nothing anywhere else is close to 15.5.

[Birds Nest]

I’ve just had a look back at last year and the tim

es from ITV and one sticks out like a sore thump it’s the 13.48s 2nd last furlong where Delta Work puts the race to bed. Nothing anywhere else is close to 15.5.

Yes that furlong was quickest by 2 seconds, last furlong came in at 16:10 up the hill...they were going around between 27 -29 mph with that 2nd to last furlong at 33mph

[Carnage at Taunton]

I think that's just the gulf in class.
I don't think they really race for the first half of the race then slowly gather or inject some speed where the course configuration allows and then start to race approaching the barrels and the two small fences prior to that, then they're on the course proper with 2 flights left.
The inferior horses normally just gradually fade away and very few are ever in it entering the straight.
So I personally do not see it as a stamina test at all (on average).
I think it will need a really well judged ride from Minella's jockey.

Yeah, to me the way the course is set out would be very difficult to be a speedy type race until quite a way into the race.
Thats when the class horses draw away and fight out the finish.
That’s how it seems now to me, the betting is probably more reliable here than any other marathon race.
This year it’s very difficult to see any horse figuring than the obvious ex gold cup types, although maybe Coko can get amongst them.

[Birds Nest]

I dont think 33mph is exceptionally quick, just something you'd expect from a classy sort at the end of a race, nothing minella indo cant do, i certainly wouldn't be worried about galvin/delta out kicking him...