2024 Diamond Geezer Cup (Antepost Tipping Competition)

[Dandrew99]

The top 3 picks per race. I did a similar analysis to that I conducted last year to work out the perceived value (PV) of each horse. The PV is calculated by multiplying the current odds by the percentage of selections. Theoretically, higher PV means it's a good value bet.

Supreme

	count	%	Price	PV
Ballyburn (3.00)	39	45.88%	3.00	1.376470588
Firefox (8.00)	13	15.29%	8.00	1.223529412
Jeriko Du Reponet (10.00)	13	15.29%	10.0	1.529411765

Arkle

	count	%	Price	PV
Marine Nationale (3.50)	43	50.59%	3.50	1.770588235
Hunters Yarn (11.00)	11	12.94%	11.0	1.423529412
Found A Fifty (7.00)	8	9.41%	7.00	0.6588235294

Ultima

	count	%	Price	PV
The Goffer (9.00)	31	36.47%	9.00	3.282352941
Chianti Classico (12.00)	23	27.06%	12.0	3.247058824
Amirite (17.00)	11	12.94%	17.0	2.2

Champion Hurdle

	count	%	Price	PV
Constitution Hill (1.33)	81	95.29%	1.33	1.267411765
State Man (3.75)	3	3.53%	3.75	0.1323529412
Bob Olinger (0.00)	1	1.18%	0.00	0

Mares Hurdle

	count	%	Price	PV
Lossiemouth (1.62)	73	85.88%	1.62	1.391294118
Ashroe Diamond (5.00)	6	7.06%	5.00	0.3529411765
Gala Marceau (17.00)	2	2.35%	17.0	0.4

Boodles

	count	%	Price	PV
Ndaawi (9.00)	20	23.53%	9.00	2.117647059
Batman Girac (7.00)	15	17.65%	7.00	1.235294118
Nara (21.00)	12	14.12%	21.0	2.964705882

NH Chase

	count	%	Price	PV
Salvador Ziggy (8.00)	34	40.00%	8.00	3.2
Embassy Gardens (3.00)	33	38.82%	3.00	1.164705882
Corbetts Cross (4.33)	10	11.76%	4.33	0.5094117647

Baring Bingham

	count	%	Price	PV
Ballyburn (3.00)	37	43.53%	3.00	1.305882353
Ile Atlantique (7.00)	19	22.35%	7.00	1.564705882
Slade Steel (5.00)	17	20.00%	5.00	1

Brown Advisory

	count	%	Price	PV
Fact To File (2.50)	55	64.71%	2.50	1.617647059
Stay Away Fay (4.50)	18	21.18%	4.50	0.9529411765
Montys Star (8.00)	9	10.59%	8.00	0.8470588235

Coral Cup

	count	%	Price	PV
Langer Dan (9.00)	28	32.94%	9.00	2.964705882
Doddiethegreat (13.00)	13	15.29%	13.0	1.988235294
Sa Majeste (8.00)	13	15.29%	8.00	1.223529412

Champion Chase

	count	%	Price	PV
El Fabiolo (1.44)	79	92.94%	1.44	1.338352941
Jonbon (4.33)	5	5.88%	4.33	0.2547058824
Edwardstone (9.00)	1	1.18%	9.00	0.1058823529

Cross Country

	count	%	Price	PV
Minella Indo (3.50)	35	41.18%	3.50	1.441176471
Galvin (5.50)	25	29.41%	5.50	1.617647059
Delta Work (5.50)	20	23.53%	5.50	1.294117647

Grand Annual

	count	%	Price	PV
My Mate Mozzie (8.00)	21	24.71%	8.00	1.976470588
Madara (11.00)	12	14.12%	11.0	1.552941176
Calico (17.00)	9	10.59%	17.0	1.8

Champion Bumper

	count	%	Price	PV
You Oughta Know (10.00)	32	37.65%	10.0	3.764705882
The Yellow Clay (13.00)	12	14.12%	13.0	1.835294118
Maughreen (7.00)	11	12.94%	7.00	0.9058823529

Turners

	count	%	Price	PV
Ginnys Destiny (3.50)	29	34.12%	3.50	1.194117647
Facile Vega (6.00)	18	21.18%	6.00	1.270588235
Grey Dawning (8.00)	15	17.65%	8.00	1.411764706

Pertemps

	count	%	Price	PV
Icare Allen (11.00)	28	32.94%	11.0	3.623529412
Chantry House (13.00)	16	18.82%	13.0	2.447058824
Gaoth Chuil (9.00)	6	7.06%	9.00	0.6352941176

Ryanair

	count	%	Price	PV
Envoi Allen (5.00)	24	28.24%	5.00	1.411764706
Stage Star (5.50)	24	28.24%	5.50	1.552941176
Banbridge (3.75)	18	21.18%	3.75	0.7941176471

Stayers

	count	%	Price	PV
Teahupoo (4.00)	47	55.29%	4.00	2.211764706
Irish Point (5.00)	15	17.65%	5.00	0.8823529412
Crambo (7.00)	13	15.29%	7.00	1.070588235

Plate

	count	%	Price	PV
Crebilly (9.00)	28	32.94%	9.00	2.964705882
Sa Fureur (17.00)	6	7.06%	17.0	1.2
Saint Felicien (15.00)	6	7.06%	15.0	1.058823529

Mares Novice

	count	%	Price	PV
Brighterdaysahead (3.50)	41	48.24%	3.50	1.688235294
Jade De Grugy (3.50)	35	41.18%	3.50	1.441176471
Dysart Enos (5.00)	8	9.41%	5.00	0.4705882353

Kim Muir

	count	%	Price	PV
Perceval Legallois (9.00)	26	30.59%	9.00	2.752941176
Whacker Clan (21.00)	14	16.47%	21.0	3.458823529
Good Time Jonny (6.00)	12	14.12%	6.00	0.8470588235

Triumph

	count	%	Price	PV
Sir Gino (1.73)	75	88.24%	1.73	1.526470588
Kargese (8.00)	4	4.71%	8.00	0.3764705882
Majborough (8.00)	3	3.53%	8.00	0.2823529412

County

	count	%	Price	PV
King Of Kingsfield (11.00)	17	20.00%	11.0	2.2
Absurde (11.00)	13	15.29%	11.0	1.682352941
Faivoir (34.00)	8	9.41%	34.0	3.2

Albert Bartlett

	count	%	Price	PV
High Class Hero (8.00)	18	21.18%	8.00	1.694117647
Dancing City (8.00)	17	20.00%	8.00	1.6
Shanagh Bob (11.00)	10	11.76%	11.0	1.294117647

Gold Cup

	count	%	Price	PV
Galopin Des Champs (2.00)	66	68.04%	2.00	1.360824742
Shishkin (9.00)	7	7.22%	9.00	0.6494845361
Fastorslow (6.00)	5	5.15%	6.00	0.3092783505

Mares Chase

	count	%	Price	PV
Dinoblue (2.00)	62	72.94%	2.00	1.458823529
Allegorie De Vassy (4.50)	10	11.76%	4.50	0.5294117647
Limerick Lace (6.50)	6	7.06%	6.50	0.4588235294

Hunters Chase

	count	%	Price	PV
Premier Magic (11.00)	51	60.00%	11.0	6.6
Ferns Lock (3.75)	16	18.82%	3.75	0.7058823529
Its On The Line (4.50)	7	8.24%	4.50	0.3705882353

Martin Pipe

	count	%	Price	PV
Quai De Bourbon (11.00)	33	38.82%	11.0	4.270588235
Sa Majeste (8.00)	9	10.59%	8.00	0.8470588235
Better Days Ahead (15.00)	7	8.24%	15.0	1.235294118

[Dandrew99]

Top 5 Selected Horses

Constitution Hill (81/85)
El Fabiolo (79/85)
Sir Gino (75/85)
Lossiemouth (73/85)
Galopin Des Champs (66/85)

Top 5 Selection Horses (Greater than 2/1)

Premier Magic (51/85)
Teahupoo (47/85)
Marine Nationale (43/85)
Brighterdaysahead (41/85)
Minella Indo (35/85)

Top Perceived Value

Horse	count	%	Price	PV
Premier Magic (11.00)	51	60.00%	11.0	6.6
Quai De Bourbon (11.00)	33	38.82%	11.0	4.270588235
You Oughta Know (10.00)	32	37.65%	10.0	3.764705882
Icare Allen (11.00)	28	32.94%	11.0	3.623529412
Whacker Clan (21.00)	14	16.47%	21.0	3.458823529
The Goffer (9.00)	31	36.47%	9.00	3.282352941
Chianti Classico (12.00)	23	27.06%	12.0	3.247058824
Salvador Ziggy (8.00)	34	40.00%	8.00	3.2
Faivoir (34.00)	8	9.41%	34.0	3.2
Langer Dan (9.00)	28	32.94%	9.00	2.964705882
Crebilly (9.00)	28	32.94%	9.00	2.964705882
Nara (21.00)	12	14.12%	21.0	2.964705882
Perceval Legallois (9.00)	26	30.59%	9.00	2.752941176
Chantry House (13.00)	16	18.82%	13.0	2.447058824
Teahupoo (4.00)	47	55.29%	4.00	2.211764706
King Of Kingsfield (11.00)	17	20.00%	11.0	2.2
Amirite (17.00)	11	12.94%	17.0	2.2
Ndaawi (9.00)	20	23.53%	9.00	2.117647059
Doddiethegreat (13.00)	13	15.29%	13.0	1.988235294
My Mate Mozzie (8.00)	21	24.71%	8.00	1.976470588

[Dandrew99]

Last year I recommended a yankee from the PV results, I'll have a play on this myself. PM, QDB and YOK seem to be nailed on, personally I would rather stay away from handicaps in a yankee so I'll go with

Premier Magic (Hunters Chase)
Quai De Bourbon (Martin Pipe)
You Oughta Know (Champion Bumper)
Salvador Ziggy (NH Chase)

5939/1 with Bet365, or 10724/1 if you want to risk antepost.

[Lobos]

Fabulous stuff Dan.

Premier Magic top value horse by miles. Absolutely agree with that.

[Kevloaf]

Oh shit I forgot to update

[HoldenTheReins]

Last year I recommended a yankee from the PV results, I'll have a play on this myself. PM, QDB and YOK seem to be nailed on, personally I would rather stay away from handicaps in a yankee so I'll go with

Premier Magic (Hunters Chase)
Quai De Bourbon (Martin Pipe)
You Oughta Know (Champion Bumper)
Salvador Ziggy (NH Chase)

5939/1 with Bet365, or 10724/1 if you want to risk antepost.

Top work Dan as always . Chuckled at the comment of avoiding the handicaps but have thrown in the Martin Pipe

[Birds Nest]

Exciting stuff Dan..thanks for doing this..

[ComplyOrDie]

Massive thanks for doing this again Dandrew99

[Rooster Booster]

Yep really appreciate this Dandrew99 . Top job

[Joleg]

Last year I recommended a yankee from the PV results, I'll have a play on this myself. PM, QDB and YOK seem to be nailed on, personally I would rather stay away from handicaps in a yankee so I'll go with

Premier Magic (Hunters Chase)
Quai De Bourbon (Martin Pipe)
You Oughta Know (Champion Bumper)
Salvador Ziggy (NH Chase)

5939/1 with Bet365, or 10724/1 if you want to risk antepost.

I'll follow you in Dan

[Middle_Of_March]

Count me in. Top stuff

Turns out the deadline isn’t the end of the month like i thought so I’ve missed out. Which is a shame but good luck to all

[Rooster Booster]

Turns out the deadline isn’t the end of the month like i thought so I’ve missed out. Which is a shame but good luck to all

Turns out your handle is actually a reminder

[Dandrew99]

Two selections for Slade Steel... our early leaders are BalthazarKing and Odin , great shout chaps

[Dandrew99]

Only one winner there too! Great shout Smiley

[Dandrew99]

Very popular pick there... 24 selections on Chianti Classico!

3 winning selections across the first 2 graded races then 24 on the first handicap...