Nap, Lay and e/w 2024

[MadeinJapan]

Not seen you on here for a while! Welcome back
Really like all 3 of those shouts ... with Lossiemouth as well, I also fancy GM to reverse and then you've got a really deep field behind that may be better than both.... she really should be a big lay

Thanks mate… been one of those years & been meaning to be on here way more. Will be at HQ on the Tues if you’re around? Still owe you that pint from 2022!

Agreed on all the above, think she’s the worst fav at meeting given the depth of that race & the conditions of it. I was close to putting Monty’s Star e/w as the selection too but seen a lot of others on here have too so wanted to add another - will be backing that one too.

[Quevega]

N - Ile Atlantique
L - Teahupoo
EW - Beachcomber

[Exar Essay]

Nap - Dinoblue
Lay - Dysart Enos
EW - Mistergif (Supreme)

[mcolebrook]

Nap Maughreen - there's something about the performance which makes me think there's a lot more to come at the Festival.
Lay Gaelic Warrior (reasons others have stated)
E/w Monkfish - being trained with this in mind. If the talent remains, has a great chance of a place.

[robith]

Is very interesting reading the answers change over time. Almost feels like cheating doing it with a month's extra evidence

NAP - Jade de Grugy (MNH) She just looks rock solid, price kept vaguely honest by BDA. I love Stay Away Fay but hard to be confident vs F2F

LAY - Marine Nationale - feels weird as he's my only bet in the race now, but that was a horse with breathing issues that I struggle to see contending with G1 pace at the festival. Price is waaaay too short. Can't have him at all

EW - If I'd done this when I should've I wouldve picked Montys Star or Slade Steel, but both too short now. I'd go Captain Guinness @20s for the Champion Chase

[Craigy14]

Nap Jade Du Grugy - think she could be the real deal. The performance at Xmas was one of the best from a novice imo given how mind boggling the novices seem to be this year. Still a decent price as well compared to the front 2 in the market (double the price), she wins the solerina she goes fav no doubt about it. Think she’ll get WPM his mares novice back.

Lay Lossiemouth - just a fav you have to take on imo. Was between her or Allaho (least he’s been seen and ran reasonably well). Juveniles notoriously find it hard in open company, WPM has given her more time etc but one run and then the mares wouldn’t be ideal, especially for a juvenile taking on open graded horses for the first time.

E/W Monty’s Star - I really like this horse and think he’s your typical much improved chaser than hurdler. Yes it’s very cliche but in this instance I think it is the case. His first run was good, Rachael minded him and she really likes him. He then won easily next time out up to 3m. No doubt he’ll be in the frame come march, will make a bold prediction and it’ll be him, Fact To File and Stay Away Fay fighting out the finish, similar to the year Delta Work, Topofthegame and Santini fought out the RSA.

2 out of the 3 I’m happy with.

Obviously since this post Lossiemouth has bolted up looking exceptional.

I’d change my lay to:

Facile Vega Arkle - he just needs a step up, if he wins the Arkle it’ll be a poor race although it’s looking like it already. He apparently did a piece of work so good they sent him Irish Arkle over Gaelic and let’s be honest he disappointed.

[TigerRolllllll]

Lay - i would place pay Marine Nationale (not win lay!).....cos the wind will either be an issue again or not....and this feels best risk/reward play

Nap - boring, but can't see Ballyburn beaten wherever he goes (and i think he will win Supreme)

EW -t he account closing version would be Teahupoo, but better option Salvador Ziggy, who has been laid out for race and has festival form, whereas likely fav did not run well last time here, so good chance at win pay (important in doing ew for me)

[Dilinja]

Nap Banbridge in the Ryanair. Once he gets his ground, sure to drift from his current price.

Lay Gaelic warrior if he even turns up.

E/w Love Envoi in the mares hurdle. Ran a stormer last year and made Honeysuckle work hard for her win. Has the festival form in the book and the longer distance will hopefully bridge the gap from the last day v Lossiemouth.

[Madmoose]

Nap - Stay Away Fay, since he won the AB he must of had a big circle around this race from the yard. Can’t see anything outstaying him once he comes into contention on the home turn.

Lay - Ile Atlantique in running, ill add an in running lay as I’m sure as he does he will travel smoothly most of the way before going short odds.

EW - Predators Gold (BB) 20/1, the drop back in trip on a fair surface should suit this consistent novice. Ran well in bad conditions over Xmas and backed it up at the DRF but the trip was a step too far being a little keen.

[opatcho]

NAP: Jeriko Du Reponet (Supreme)

LAY: Teahupoo (Stayers)
A proper middle distance horse, and ground dependant. Should have won last year. 3 miles over better ground is a negative + a negative. I was close to putting Gaelic Warrior any race up as a lay

E/W: West Balboa (Mares - BEX 26’s)

I'm having a second go at this, although I wished I had been brave (^^^) and layed Gaelic Warrior any race instead of Teahupoo.
I feel confident with these below, despite these looking a little wild

NAP: JPR One
Wins the Arkle. 12/1 atm. First race, was a round of schooling - he's a very good jumper and looks a proper chaser. He was putting in a impressive run at cheltenham when knuckling and UR his jockey. Sounds weird, but think he had too much left in the tank and over jumped that fence. Sandown, I cant ignore but the ground that day was shocking! Again, knuckled when putting in an effort to chase down the leader. Last race, another round of good jumping against a very fast horse which he was able to beat off going to last. I think the faster they go, the better this lad will be. Market is looking for a Irish winner, but I dont rate them and Marine has a lot to do coming off the back of that last run. I do fancy this lad

LAY: Galopin Des Champs
He's not unbeaten. He's fallen before at cheltenham and his jumping, although decent, is something that can and will caught him out at some point. I just dont think he can run up around 180 three times in a row. I really like Fastorslow, and believe they left a bit there to work on for the festival. With the likes of Shishkin in the mix, there is a risk element of something happening here to bring down or hammer one of these. GDC is a great horse, no doubt, but I dont think he should be the price he is at and therefore, have to lay him

E/W and Without Fav: Gala Marceau
Currently 10/1 for the mares. I cant see her out of the top two and will be backing her to beat Ashroe Diamond who reminds me of Echo In Rain, in the way she runs, and I just dont think Cheltenham will suit Ashroe. Additionally, Danny > Patrick all day long for me. She's had her prep run, and she'll be off level weight, over a trip I think that will suit Gala more. Really confidence Gala will finish in the top two, so will be playing the without fav markets on the day. There is a chance, that this mare could edge out Lossiemouth. Day 1 of the festival, I know she's been here before, but she is a bit keen. There is a scenario where I can see Lossiemouth doing too much and Gala outstays here, its a small chance, enough for me to also back Gala in a win single

[Captain Chris]

E/W and Without Fav: Gala Marceau
Currently 10/1 for the mares. I cant see her out of the top two and will be backing her to beat Ashroe Diamond who reminds me of Echo In Rain, in the way she runs, and I just dont think Cheltenham will suit Ashroe. Additionally, Danny > Patrick all day long for me. She's had her prep run, and she'll be off level weight, over a trip I think that will suit Gala more. Really confidence Gala will finish in the top two, so will be playing the without fav markets on the day. There is a chance, that this mare could edge out Lossiemouth. Day 1 of the festival, I know she's been here before, but she is a bit keen. There is a scenario where I can see Lossiemouth doing too much and Gala outstays here, its a small chance, enough for me to also back Gala in a win single

Oh no, I'm very keen on Ashroe Diamond but the sudden realisation, whilst reading this, that Patrick will be on board has somewhat deflated that balloon. A really good amateur but this would be a massive negative.

Nap - Fact to File Turners or Ballyburn Supreme (or the ultimate NR double)

Lay - Mystical Power any race. Can't see any substance to his form

Ew - Salvador Ziggy NHC although In Excelsis Deo for the Grand Annual is a close 2nd.

[Ballyfitz]

NAP: JPR One
Wins the Arkle. 12/1 atm. First race, was a round of schooling - he's a very good jumper and looks a proper chaser. He was putting in an impressive run at cheltenham when knuckling and UR his jockey. Sounds weird, but think he had too much left in the tank and over jumped that fence. Sandown, I cant ignore but the ground that day was shocking! Again, knuckled when putting in an effort to chase down the leader. Last race, another round of good jumping against a very fast horse which he was able to beat off going to last. I think the faster they go, the better this lad will be. Market is looking for an Irish winner, but I dont rate them and Marine has a lot to do coming off the back of that last run. I do fancy this lad

Can get 14/1 JPR One as a Bet 365 boost for anyone that agrees (in the non-NRNB section)

[HesTheOne]

NAP Ballyburn 4s for Ballymore
NB Jade De Grugy 8s for Mares Nov
LAY Mystical Power 4s for Supreme
E/W Gentlemansgame 20s for GC

Not sure how I feel looking back, look to have got my NAP in the wrong race (for now..)

[Captain Chris]

Nap - Stage Star. CD specialist vs a regressing Allaho and Banbridge, who won't turn up if there's been a hint of drizzle in March

Lay - Lossiemouth. As a rule, I don't back any horse out of their juvenile season and we haven't even seen her run yet. Yes, she was the best of the bunch last year, but she wasn't winning by half the track so I'm not sure that the standard is high enough. Next year perhaps

E/w - Salvador Ziggy. Probably got the best form in the NHC, solid course form and only has 1 realistic target.

Hadn't remembered that I'd already had a go. I wouldn't back Lossie now and will be taking her on, but it won't be with as much confidence albeit she'd be a trends buster if she won. Stage Star and Ziggy still at the forefront of my mind