2024 Handicaps

[Exar Essay]

If Willie has a horse in the same mould as Galopin Des Champs (i.e. running poorly in Graded race before the festival), is it Lombron today? Went off 5/2 in Moscow Flyer. 4th run in a hurdle today so expecting massive price to be available. Could be a County Hurdle horse? Could also just not be that good?

He’d want to be going close today don’t you think? I don’t think he’d get in currently, although that’s purely guesswork. For some context, Jigoro is 141 (UK). So might it be worth taking the 40/1 for today and roll any winnings (even ew) on to the festival? He certainly looks one who will be suited by the ground today. He also looked a stayer to me so perhaps more of a Pipe horse?

[Quevega]

You could well be right. Wouldn't be of any interest to me in The Ultima off that mark.

Right about what ?
I'd just read that he may get entered and know he's entered for the Grand National again.

I think he'll have an entry and we'll know for almost certain his chase rating, as the National weights are announced.
There's a small chance his hurdle exploits and his last chase run being in the National itself will mean an adjustment from the 151.

Obviously his new hurdles rating will be published Tuesday also. Any big drop will surely tempt them, but at 146 at present vs 151 it's not like he's currently well in over hurdles.
This will then influence Skeltons decision on where to run at the festival.

The decision might hinge on whether they want to go back for another crack at the Grand National and if he believes he can go there having not jumped a fence since the last one or not.

Anything NRNB is worth a stab.
But more information will be around on Tuesday or the day after if they fanny about.

[Odin]

He’d want to be going close today don’t you think? I don’t think he’d get in currently, although that’s purely guesswork. For some context, Jigoro is 141 (UK). So might it be worth taking the 40/1 for today and roll any winnings (even ew) on to the festival? He certainly looks one who will be suited by the ground today. He also looked a stayer to me so perhaps more of a Pipe horse?

In truth, I don't know. I was looking more at the profile than anything else.

I'll just be watching today - it looks like Townend massively fancies Tullyhill based on quotes so covered him WTAF but other than that it's a watching race. Bottom weight in County last year was 133 so he doesn't need to put in a massive performance to be rated close to that does he, with Pipe an option if he's too low (bottom weight 126 last year, which he's surely rated already?)

[Exar Essay]

In truth, I don't know. I was looking more at the profile than anything else.

I'll just be watching today - it looks like Townend massively fancies Tullyhill based on quotes so covered him WTAF but other than that it's a watching race. Bottom weight in County last year was 133 so he doesn't need to put in a massive performance to be rated close to that does he, with Pipe an option if he's too low (bottom weight 126 last year, which he's surely rated already?)

126 was very low. The average bottom weight for the Pipe in the last five years is, apparently, 132. Hunters Yarn got 147 for winning this race last year very convincingly for context (and he had much better back form).

Yes Tullyhill is being very well backed today.

[Eggs]

….Coral Cup for Doddiethegreat;

We were delighted with his run and Nicky and everyone thinks ideally he needs another half a mile,” said Alexander’s racing manager Peter Molony.

“Given the circumstances, we were really happy with the run and we were perhaps unlucky not to be third and pick up even more money for the cause.

“I think we’ve got the Coral Cup in mind for him and that’s the plan at the moment.

“He’s a lovely horse and of course we have to be a bit careful after his injury, but we’ve been delighted with him and touch wood, the leg seems to be holding up well. Hopefully we can get plenty more runs into him and win plenty more prize-money for the foundation.”

[Odin]

126 was very low. The average bottom weight for the Pipe in the last five years is, apparently, 132.

There were a couple of races that were very low compared to averages last year - Boodles is one off the top of my head, Pertemps another (although that more likely due to the qualifying criteria change). I think we are going to see the average fall by a decent amount over the next couple of years as the population of horses continues to decrease. May be wrong but I feel like the landscape of racing is changing quite dramatically atm and so current 5-10 year trends may not be particularly relevant within the next couple of years

[Oneman94]

The Goffer just had a nice tune up in a charity race ridden by one of Gordons work riders.

[Lobos]

The Goffer just had a nice tune up in a charity race ridden by one of Gordons work riders.

Ummmmmmm.................yummmmmmmy

[YoungHustler]

A few i have backed over the weekend.

Ballyadam - Coral Cup. Henry has said that he is likely to come here and I think the trip will suit. He's been placed at a few festivals and I just see him running a decent race at 20s nrnb. I have also backed Hiddenvalley Lake 14s as think he could be another Robcour 160s rated hurdler and from his breeding, I'm not convinced that he has to have it soft.

No Ordinary Joe - Martin Pipe. Just feels like that this has been his aim all year after finishing 2nd last year. There may well ne a very well handicapped Irish novice but I still think NOJ is well handicapped and that there is a big race in him. Price has now shortened to 14s after Hendo advised this race was the plan yesterday.

The Goffer - Ultima. I like horses coming back for the Ultima, especially after running well the previous year. This looks very much like a plan and if he has improved which i hope he has, as was only a 6 year old novice last season, then i think he will have a real chance. Also really like Amirite who others have highlighted on here.

So Scottish - The Plate. Not sure if this is the plan as a stand out 12s with PP but I think he will be half this price if lining up. Ran a really nice prep over hurdles lto and I just think there has to be a big handicap in him and especially if the going is decent.

My Mate Mozzie - Grand Annual. Price is short but I just think this has to be the plan after his October win at Cheltenham and I think he is still well handicapped. Just worried connections may take a swing at the Arkle after Marine disappointing lto.

[Eggs]

……presume this is accurate and at some point tomorrow we’ll get to see the handicap entries. I’m reminded of years gone-by of lists being posted at each stage with yellow highlighters for those that remain in, it’s getting closer.

The 20th of February is a huge day as the handicap entries are released for the following races: the Ultima, Coral Cup, Boodles, Pertemps, Plate, Kim Muir, County Hurdle, Martin Pipe and the Grand Annual.

[Exar Essay]

A.T.Races ... Ben Pauling said he didn't think Henry's friend would go to Cheltenham .

Just to say that Ben Pauling has reappraised things today after finding Henry's Friend so fresh this morning as per his interview on Nick Luck's podcast this morning. The NHC is on the table as an option again.

[Lobos]

May have already been said but Nicholls Kabral Du Mathan has had a setback and now unlikely to run in Boodles.

[Quevega]

Sky have put Thanks For the Help at 25-1 for the pertemps.

McManus horse - Trained by pipe - 8th last year - runs chepstow again on saturday if declared.

Went off 10/3 Fav last year, looks like they want another crack and he's only 7

He'd definitely be a potential winner for anyone who multi bets in races like this.
Obviously money back if he doesn't qualify or run.

[Benjy23]

Sky have put Thanks For the Help at 25-1 for the pertemps.

McManus horse - Trained by pipe - 8th last year - runs chepstow again on saturday if declared.

Went off 10/3 Fav last year, looks like they want another crack and he's only 7

He'd definitely be a potential winner for anyone who multi bets in races like this.
Obviously money back if he doesn't qualify or run.

Aye, makes sense as a NRNB addition for sure.

I see from the stable tour that Nicholls is planning to qualify Monimiral in the same Chepstow race. Probably finished isn't he and not quoted in the betting anyway, but an interesting plan all the same.

[Quevega]

Aye, makes sense as a NRNB addition for sure.

I see from the stable tour that Nicholls is planning to qualify Monimiral in the same Chepstow race. Probably finished isn't he and not quoted in the betting anyway, but an interesting plan all the same.

Yeah, and Walking on air again.
Will likely be a tricky race to get qualified in, like the Musslebrough race the other week.