January ‘24 Yankee

[Guinness Village]

I quite like this idea. I’ve had a few willies beaten yankies over the past month. Sometimes I think there’s an overreaction to a defeat and perhaps some value thereafter

[Quevega]

I quite like this idea. I’ve had a few willies beaten yankies over the past month. Sometimes I think there’s an overreaction to a defeat and perhaps some value thereafter

Of the 15 Mullins Novice hurdle festival winners I can only think of two that got beat in their maiden.
That was Monkfish & Ebaziyan.

Ebaziyan the only one to go the the festival and win after only winning a maiden on second attempt (40-1).

I think one or two others got beat on the way in graded races - Penhill, Champagne Fever,

Rest were unbeaten over hurdles.

I think, not spent all day on this.

[Eggs]

….i think I’d be more inclined to analyse members ‘Win, Nap, E/W’ selections, we want selections posters think have a chance of winning. I’m happy to collate findings.

i still wonder about the DRF impact. Given its timing in the first week of next month, do we;

1) identify selections ahead of DRF?
2) identify selections after DRF?
3) or even do a standard Yankee ahead of DRF and another with focus on DRF?

Perhaps Middle_Of_March can give us his thoughts.

[ComplyOrDie]

Of the 15 Mullins Novice hurdle festival winners I can only think of two that got beat in their maiden.
That was Monkfish & Ebaziyan.

Ebaziyan the only one to go the the festival and win after only winning a maiden on second attempt (40-1).

I think one or two others got beat on the way in graded races - Penhill, Champagne Fever,

Rest were unbeaten over hurdles.

I think, not spent all day on this.

So a negative for Ballyburn, among others, but whilst you've noted this, another negative for Ballyburn (Supreme only) is that none of Willie's Supreme winners have won over the intermediate trip prior to the winning the race. Elixir D'Ainay won a race over 2m3f (after being beat on his hurdles debut over 2m), but fell in the Supreme, Getabird won his maiden over 2m4f, and got absolutely hammered in the Supreme.

For those who couldn't care less about trends and stats, Ballyburn wins all

[Carnage at Taunton]

So a negative for Ballyburn, among others, but whilst you've noted this, another negative for Ballyburn (Supreme only) is that none of Willie's Supreme winners have won over the intermediate trip prior to the winning the race. Elixir D'Ainay won a race over 2m3f (after being beat on his hurdles debut over 2m), but fell in the Supreme, Getabird won his maiden over 2m4f, and got absolutely hammered in the Supreme.

For those who couldn't care less about trends and stats, Ballyburn wins all

Bit harsh on Elixir COD
Was going well when knocked over by the nutter Asterion
Not saying he would have won or gone close, but was going well at the time

[ComplyOrDie]

Bit harsh on Elixir COD
Was going well when knocked over by the nutter Asterion
Not saying he would have won or gone close, but was going well at the time

It wasn't harsh, I just said he fell in the Supreme, I never noted what I expected to happen, but I had to include him as he ran and won over 2m3f prior to running in the Supreme. If I'd ignored him I'm sure someone would have brought him up.

FWIW, he was travelling really well at the time, and was unlucky, so who knows, this stat could have been skewed by him somewhat.

[Quevega]

So a negative for Ballyburn, among others, but whilst you've noted this, another negative for Ballyburn (Supreme only) is that none of Willie's Supreme winners have won over the intermediate trip prior to the winning the race. Elixir D'Ainay won a race over 2m3f (after being beat on his hurdles debut over 2m), but fell in the Supreme, Getabird won his maiden over 2m4f, and got absolutely hammered in the Supreme.

For those who couldn't care less about trends and stats, Ballyburn wins all

Yeah.
After being very much against Ballyburn early season I really have too many little farty bets and doubles including him now.
Was just the last couple of furlongs the last day that impressed me, probably flattered by the ground anyway.
And the race does look weak and it's Willie so he can do most things.

[Carnage at Taunton]

It wasn't harsh, I just said he fell in the Supreme, I never noted what I expected to happen, but I had to include him as he ran and won over 2m3f prior to running in the Supreme. If I'd ignored him I'm sure someone would have brought him up.

FWIW, he was travelling really well at the time, and was unlucky, so who knows, this stat could have been skewed by him somewhat.

Ok, fair enough
Just thought I would mention he was going well at the time and it weren’t like a tired fall

[Middle_Of_March]

….i think I’d be more inclined to analyse members ‘Win, Nap, E/W’ selections, we want selections posters think have a chance of winning. I’m happy to collate findings.

i still wonder about the DRF impact. Given its timing in the first week of next month, do we;

1) identify selections ahead of DRF?
2) identify selections after DRF?
3) or even do a standard Yankee ahead of DRF and another with focus on DRF?

Perhaps Middle_Of_March can give us his thoughts.

A tally of NAPs of the Fez was my plan for the final February Yankee. Been hard to think of themes this year but that seems a fitting way to end.

I think the January one ought to be horses we think will win at the Dublin fez and thus shorter dramatically. It’s the single most crucial piece of pre-fez form. The 2m 6f race is always a good guide to the Albert Bartlett market I think. Winner of the DRF race often goes short for Cheltenham. That’s the sort of race based on the entries/early markets next week to focus on.

[Eggs]

…..so it’s horses that ‘will win at DRF and shorten considerably’;

I’ll suggest ‘I will be Baie’ from the 2m 6f Nathaniel Lacy. Concern that he’s drifting for that but he’s been mentioned by a few on here and put up in the SL by Graham North;

“but the horse who strikes me as very underestimated is another Closutton inmate, I Will Be Baie, who I’ve got at 152 using this approach and whose Fairyhouse New Year Day win that prompted that figure was made to look better after runner-up My Trump Card won at Navan over the weekend. With no obvious preference emanating from the yard right now I’ve backed him at big prices for both the Ballymore and Albert Bartlett.“

Given MoMs view that the 2m 6f is an AB trial, then the 25-1 will shorten significantly if he wins.

[ComplyOrDie]

…..so it’s horses that ‘will win at DRF and shorten considerably’;

I’ll suggest ‘I will be Baie’ from the 2m 6f Nathaniel Lacy. Concern that he’s drifting for that but he’s been mentioned by a few on here and put up in the SL by Graham North;

“but the horse who strikes me as very underestimated is another Closutton inmate, I Will Be Baie, who I’ve got at 152 using this approach and whose Fairyhouse New Year Day win that prompted that figure was made to look better after runner-up My Trump Card won at Navan over the weekend. With no obvious preference emanating from the yard right now I’ve backed him at big prices for both the Ballymore and Albert Bartlett.“

Given MoMs view that the 2m 6f is an AB trial, then the 25-1 will shorten significantly if he wins.

I really like him and pretty much this same case in my diary recently. Hopefully he'll go well at the DRF now!

He's 9's for the DRF, which I've backed him for, and you could probably just about ignore the 66's on offer for the win at the DRF and Bartlett as you could probably get above 6's even if he were to win it, maybe not once the market has settled but immediately after I imagine he'd still be above that if quick enough. I say this after I've taken some of the 66's

[Middle_Of_March]

I’ll nominate Storm Heart who I think goes clear second fav for the triumph when he wins (fav will surely be whoever wins out of Sir Gino or Burdett Road Saturday) the juvenile race. I’ll also nominate Fact To File for the browns. I’m keen on stay away Faye there but I think FTF will halve in price if he wins the race at the DRF he’s favourite for.

[Eggs]

…..not long to go on this & strong indication that 2 of the selections will be Storm Heart (TH) & F2F (BANC).

We need at least 2 more we think will shorten after running at DRF.

[Craigy14]

If people are confident where Ballyburn goes I’d say he has to go in given the confidence he has in the market for the DRF.

[robith]

What about today's winners?

Sir Gino
Lossiemouth
Noble Yeats
Jade de Grugy

Fuck value. Just back fucking winners #hammeremoji