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Anyone else sitting here and thinking it's not obvious?
I recall Dineen saying he heard their best bumper is by Diamond Boy. So Cantico maybe?
Yes, I assume Cantico. It's who I thought they thought was their best bumper horse pre-Xmas. And their post race comments are that he is raw etc. so it would fit. I can't get a handle on his hurdle trip for next year but given what R4H says about him being a horse for next year, it may well be worth thinking about some more.
32 pages of comments and we still all have zero clue what might even place let alone win
Minefield
I'm going to follow the DRF form and with the winner out, I'm opting for the 2nd that day, You Oughta Know. It has the highest RPR too, 4/5 ahead of a packed field of RPRs but I see this year we also haven't got close to a strong RPR running first time out. That's been a handy guide in recent years.
…..Let it Rain getting a few mentions so could be popular on the Preview circuit. Skelton very bullish in his stable tour and the Festival looks the target. 16-1 now looks about the best with 365 antepost.
I'm going to follow the DRF form and with the winner out, I'm opting for the 2nd that day, You Oughta Know. It has the highest RPR too, 4/5 ahead of a packed field of RPRs but I see this year we also haven't got close to a strong RPR running first time out. That's been a handy guide in recent years.
I certainly wouldn't be confident of nailing down the winner of this race.
But I agree.
His price (understandably) has been clipped after Willie's recent comments. But the 9/1 on offer NRNB is what i'd be siding with. And think is fair.
Of the 5 in front of him in the market, 4 of those have only had the 1 run.
Now of 4 have had serious mentions at some stage through the year so the potential is there to simply just be a better horse.
And all bar Romeo Coolio put in a debut performance that went along with the hype.
But you really do want to see them back it, at the very least a second time and importantly in graded class with other winners in the field.
The DRF bumper has such a solid record for the festival - 112215
2023
1st - A Dream To Share - Won at Cheltenham
2nd - Fact to File - 2nd at Cheltenham
2022
1st - Facile Vega - Won
2021
1st - Kilcruit - 2nd
2020
1st - Appreciate It - 2nd
2019
1st - Envoi Allen - Won
2018
1st - Blackbow - 5th *Relegate actually won the Bumper following winning the Mares bumper at the DRF
Such a good preparation for the race, with the festival in mind.
Decent sized field.
Strong form going into it.
Festival environment to get used to the crowd and atmosphere.
I think a lot of horses who come into the race outside of the DRF (or at least following up in a listed bumper or similar) fail to cope, unless they are top class bumper horses.
You Oughta Know also has a very favourable formline with the current favourite in the race Jalon Doudairies - who is the only horse in the top 4 which has had an additional run. Using Redemption Day's past 2 runs.
Jalon Doudairies - Beat RD by 2 & 3/4 lengths in December. But was receiving 5lb plus had Harry Swan's 5lb claim for a total of 10lb in his favour.
You Oughta Know - Beat RD by 2 & 1/2 lengths at the RRF. But was giving RD 3lb.
All whilst having an arguably poor ride held up when he had been prominent on his first 2 bumper wins.
Where as JD had the run of the race and dictated things.
I think You Oughta Know is some of the best value left in all the festival markets at 9/1 for all the reason outlined by FM above, he’s a fine big stamp of a horse & should come on plenty for his fist run off a break at the DRF.
Imo the yellow would have beaten yok that day and got close to the winner, having to quicken twice on that ground was very impressive.
Agree. He would have gone very close. Watched the race back again just now and he was stopped at a crucial time 2f out and lost a good 4/5 lengths. Finished so strongly.
On the subject of Yellow Clay, Gordon was interviewed the week before the DRF and was asked who he was most looking forward to running / his best chances. His reply was Found a Fifty and a few nice chances in the bumper. It stuck with me because on the Saturday I remember thinking what a big price the Yellow Clay was for a horse GE had highlighted the week before.
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