2024 Ryanair Chase

[Lobos]

I'm not sure quicker ground will help him COD. He's still a fabulous horse but he's definitely lost some of his exuberance over a fence and speed naturally because he's just that bit older. I think he needs a little more give in the ground these days just to slow the others down a bit as well. It'll be very interesting what they do with Stage Star. Do You think he'll take Allaho on out in front ? Both can only run/win one way.

[charlie]

I'm amazed I've seen some negative takes on social media and on here (beating Stattler, rated 160 by 13 lengths, giving him 5lbs in that ground isn't enough for some people) about Allaho.

He's just a ridiculously talented horse over the mid trip.

I'm hoping the Ryanair will be run on slightly better ground than yesterday, too.

I wonder if the King George was a test to see if he could take a lead, knowing full well Stage Star lining up in the Ryanair could push Allaho for the lead early on. I imagine they'll attempt to just bolt out in front now regardless of Stage Star being in the race or not.

Solid take COD, agree

[riccirich]

I'm amazed I've seen some negative takes on social media and on here (beating Stattler, rated 160 by 13 lengths, giving him 5lbs in that ground isn't enough for some people) about Allaho.

He's just a ridiculously talented horse over the mid trip.

I'm hoping the Ryanair will be run on slightly better ground than yesterday, too.

I wonder if the King George was a test to see if he could take a lead, knowing full well Stage Star lining up in the Ryanair could push Allaho for the lead early on. I imagine they'll attempt to just bolt out in front now regardless of Stage Star being in the race or not.

My own take wouldn't be negative as such, my opinion of him after the race would just be no different than it was before the race as I don't think we learned anything really, other than he's fit and well. The question marks before the race was if he's on the decline ability wise, but he wasn't tested at all and didn't get the chance to answer that question imo, through no fault of his own of course, and he did all you could ask of him on the day.

I wouldn't see hammering stattler as good indication that he's improved on his first two runs. He is rated 160, but running about a mile below his best trip. Would anyone be raving about jonbon if he thumped protektorat in a 2m chase? Protektorat is rated even higher than stattler at 165, but like stattler, would be running a mile below optimum distance. And I'm not sure if better ground will be a big advantage for him, don't think he's ever shown a disliking for soft bar a couple of seasonal debuts, and he's had a lot of dominant victories on bad ground. As a 10 year old who's likely lost a bit of speed I'm not sure being taken on for the lead by younger legs on quicker ground would suit him better than uncontested leads on soft going these days.

I think allaho has a good chance of winning the Ryanair of course, but equally wouldn't be surprised if he was unplaced as I think he is on the way down, and has a few younger challengers on the way up, and I'd probably side with at least one of those running a pb on the big day and beating him.

[Eggs]

….Allaho 11/4 NRNB in Hills Specials.

[Spectre]

Allaho's performance on Sunday needs comparing to his previous pre-Festival runs and not his Ryanair wins. I think that was better than his Thurles prep against Elimay before his first Ryanair win, and around 7-8lbs below his prep for his second Ryanair. Mullins had him fit but he wasn't going to have him absolutely cherry ripe for that. It's all about one day, and if he'll find another 6 or 7lbs of improvement for March. I think he'll get 171 or 172 yesterday. People are saying Stattler gave him a race and it pulls the form down. But he didn't give him a race did he. He beat Stattler 13 lengths untroubled. Stattler is a decent horse in his own right. It's not hard to make a case for Stattler running to 158-159. Plus, outside of Galopin nobody has put Appreciate It away like that. And French Dynamite is a solid enough horse and he was beaten over 100 lengths. Essentially Allaho dod what he does, he gallops half a stride quicker than is comfortable for his rivals, and they all fall away one by one.

The question if where does that put him compared to what the others main contenders have the potential to be. My view is he's still capable of putting in a mid-170's RPR equivalent performance, so that's the bar Banbridge, Stage Star, or Envoi Allen have to beat. Envoi Allen as the most exposed of them has never hit 170 on my ratings, so he's the least likely to beat Allaho, and he's the first I will pass on. I think if he places, it's because Banbridge doesn't run or one of them makes a bad mistake.

Banbridge and Stage Star however, only need to find 7 and 6lbs respectively on my ratings. They're considerably less exposed than Envoi Allen, and go into this race with a baseline rating that Envoi Allen hasn't hit in 16 chases.

It's then interesting to compare the lead-ins of those two compared to Allaho at the same stage of his novice Chase season. On RPR's Allaho hit 166 in the prep for his first Ryanair win, which was on his 6th chase outing. He then improved 13lbs to hit a 179 when winning first time.

By comparison:

Stage Star 170 - 7 chases (pulled up in the 8th, his final prep)
Banbridge 169 - 6 chases

So both are ahead at the same point in their careers.

Stage Star had the worst possible prep pulling muscles. He's got a gap to bridge recovering from injury, and that's not the profile you want going into a race like this. I think however he has a run style that could trouble Allaho. He may not allow Allaho an uncontested lead which is surely their best chance, so they have to take him head on. There's got to be scope for him to improve his mark in this company, but his interrupted prep bothers me though. And these races are often won and lost by fine margins.

Banbridge despite being a pound behind Stage Star right now has the more progressive profile, and it felt to me as though there was a lot more to come after his seasonal debut at Kempton. His jumping will be sharper, and he'll come on for the race. But can Banbridge hit 177 I think he'll need to if he gets his ground? He's close enough now to think that very possible, with improvement highly likely anyway, and more to come from meeting this quality of field. The ground is obviously an unknown, but I do believe he has the potential to make up the gap he needs to. He's close enough already, plus I also think he may benefit from the way the race will be run, with the front two not getting an uncontested lead by taking each other on. That said, he can't allow them to get too far away from him.

So here's my prediction. Lightening will strike twice not three times for Allaho. This race won't be his third Ryanair win, it'll be his second Festival heartbreaker. I see Stage Star as his Minella Indo, and Banbridge as his Champ! Assuming good to soft ground or similar, I'd marginally say Banbridge wins staying on up the hill to beat Allaho and Stage Star in a Festival thriller.

[Leman14]

As one who is firmly in the Stage Star camp - the similar running styles of SS and Allaho has been bothering me for a while.
Stage Star seems to only have one way of winning and that is an uncontested lead, get a breather in at the top of the hill and then power up the hill.

Before the Turners last year, I was convinced that this was the only way that he could win... and they all played into Harry's hands.
If they let him have that lead again - I can see a scenario where they can't get past Stage Star - similar to the Turners

BUT

if Allaho tackles him for the lead early on (or doesn't allow him to get that breather in) - Stage Star will likely be the first to fold and Allaho will either repel the others - or set it up for a closer (depending on how quickly they've gone in the early stages)


I would love for Harry to get his own way and set the fractions on Stage Star - but I just can't see a scenario where Harry will be allowed to do so

[Quevega]

As one who is firmly in the Stage Star camp - the similar running styles of SS and Allaho has been bothering me for a while.
Stage Star seems to only have one way of winning and that is an uncontested lead, get a breather in at the top of the hill and then power up the hill.

Before the Turners last year, I was convinced that this was the only way that he could win... and they all played into Harry's hands.
If they let him have that lead again - I can see a scenario where they can't get past Stage Star - similar to the Turners

BUT

if Allaho tackles him for the lead early on (or doesn't allow him to get that breather in) - Stage Star will likely be the first to fold and Allaho will either repel the others - or set it up for a closer (depending on how quickly they've gone in the early stages)


I would love for Harry to get his own way and set the fractions on Stage Star - but I just can't see a scenario where Harry will be allowed to do so

My worries are the same.
Having backed both (and envoi), and not Banbridge I'm hoping for soft ground, otherwise I'll have to cover Banbridge near the day.
Spectre's thoughts are very similar to mine and yours by looks of it.
The first mile will be crucial, as will the jumping of course.
I'd kind of prefer one doesn't end up running.

The concern for Banbridge backers is if he gets put under pressure whilst sat in behind and his jumping suffers.
He has also seen at his best from a jumping perspective when out if front/prominent.

[opatcho]

The Ryanair could be set up for something that comes from a patient ride

SS I’m comparing to frodon, can’t give him an easy lead as he’ll sneak in breathers and be hard to beat. Jockeys aware of this and with the likes of Allaho in there, it’s a problem, and a problem for both for them as I don’t think Allaho is that of old

Banbridge is another one that will be behind the front runners

i need to take a look back, can’t remember a horse coming from mid-rear in a Ryanair

maybe this is set up for envoi, Rachel to sit back and let them destroy each other. Stays well over this trip

Very much a reminder to myself to work out likley tactics and pace, then fire trigger on a ‘on the day’ selection

I know Fugitif has a few lbs to gain on these but… may throw some pennies in-play

[Quevega]

It would actually suit Conflated.

[Birds Nest]

Those high numbers alaho has recorded in the past have all come from uncontested leads, he wont have that this year most likely, so imo banbridge/stage dont have such a big gap to bridge, alaho's number will come towards them on the day.

[FinalFurlong91]

Those high numbers alaho has recorded in the past have all come from uncontested leads, he wont have that this year most likely, so imo banbridge/stage dont have such a big gap to bridge, alaho's number will come towards them on the day.

They weren't all uncontested leads

Allaho was just able to go quicker than them

a 2 miler in min tried to go with him and got burnt off

Question is does he still have that cruising speed which we won't know till March as he aways seems to find an extra gear in the spring

[Carnage at Taunton]

They weren't all uncontested leads

Allaho was just able to go quicker than them

a 2 miler in min tried to go with him and got burnt off

Question is does he still have that cruising speed which we won't know till March as he aways seems to find an extra gear in the spring

Well he couldn’t lead the KG field as I expected him too…..or was that the plan to let Frodon lead?

[Quevega]

Well he couldn’t lead the KG field as I expected him too…..or was that the plan to let Frodon lead?

Couldn't or didn't ??

[Carnage at Taunton]

Couldn't or didn't ??

Well that’s the question I was sort of asking
I was expecting him to lead the field and when he didn’t and failed to win I was left thinking he had regressed.
Hes entitled to as well with his age and problems.
Last run has not convinced me otherwise.
Guess we have to wait till March to find out for sure.

[Rooster Booster]

The bookies believe he is worth taking on rightly or wrongly. It’s rare that bookmakers actually act like they are taking a stand. We should applaud when they do. Tbh irrespective of how many pounds he has in hand if they don’t have the balls to take on a 10yo that is showing signs of decline with recent health problems then what’s the effing point of them.