2024 Ryanair Chase

[AaronLad]

I think ash tree meadow is a real improving chaser.
He won the galway plate and then won a 2 horse race at down royal.
He's steadily progressed to become 159 rated.
The grand national was spoken about but i think he surprised gordon elliott.
Last i heard him speak about ash tree meadow he was mentioning the melling chase and a fairyhouse chase in the spring, he was on a break.
Todays entr in the ryanair is very encouraging, couple that with gordon only having conflated and fil dor entered aswell and i think this fella is a lively outsider.
Gordon ellliott has said he prefers better ground, but he handled soft pretty well last time.
At 66/1 I think he's the value in the race.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Not sure re ratings and how accurate with Allaho,
but visually he doesn’t look the same to me, and that’s to be expected with his age and setback.
It looks to me that he will be running against better opponents this year than those he ran against when winning before. And there Could well be some gooduns coming from the QM and GC.
Will he still be good enough to win?
Possibly, but plenty there to form an opinion he’s not value, especially compared to EA, who imo has been one of the best priced horses all season.
Could be a good race this year, and quite open and nice prices available.

[charlie]

Not sure re ratings and how accurate with Allaho,
but visually he doesn’t look the same to me, and that’s to be expected with his age and setback.
It looks to me that he will be running against better opponents this year than those he ran against when winning before. And there Could well be some gooduns coming from the QM and GC.
Will he still be good enough to win?
Possibly, but plenty there to form an opinion he’s not value, especially compared to EA, who imo has been one of the best priced horses all season.
Could be a good race this year, and quite open and nice prices available.

Who are the better opponents? Stage Star just pulled up at Cheltenham and won an underwhelming Turners. Envoi Allen is a good shout, agree with that. Appreciate It doesn't look good enough which pains me to say. Jonbon won't go but 14/1 is interesting if you think he'll meet EF like me pre Cheltenham and get battered. Edwardstone comes with way too many question marks. Conflated will go XC. Banbridge is too ground dependant and will most likely wait until Aintree. The rest aren't really worth mentioning IMO. So I look at the top of the market and find little in the way of credible competition cut completely agree that EA is the bet at the prices.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Who are the better opponents? Stage Star just pulled up at Cheltenham and won an underwhelming Turners. Envoi Allen is a good shout, agree with that. Appreciate It doesn't look good enough which pains me to say. Jonbon won't go but 14/1 is interesting if you think he'll meet EF like me pre Cheltenham and get battered. Edwardstone comes with way too many question marks. Conflated will go XC. Banbridge is too ground dependant and will most likely wait until Aintree. The rest aren't really worth mentioning IMO. So I look at the top of the market and find little in the way of credible competition cut completely agree that EA is the bet at the prices.

Look at those he beat before.
You have just mentioned at least 4 that imo more capable of running big races than those.
Stage Star, AI, EA and Edwardstone.
When we get the final decs, would not be surprised if there’s more.

[charlie]

Look at those he beat before.
You have just mentioned at least 4 that imo more capable of running big races than those.
Stage Star, AI, EA and Edwardstone.
When we get the final decs, would not be surprised if there’s more.

Did beating multiple mid 160's rated chasers on rails by 14L not impress you? It was a better performance than Vautour, and thats not a statement I make likely.
EA is by miles the best bet of those 4 IMO, but they all come with risk (as does Allaho tbf).
The Ryanair has been an ante post betting no mans land for years. It almost always looks stronger now on paper than it ever actually ends up being.
When you take out the wait for aintree brigade and those that go QMCC/GC, you're often left with horses that are very good but not dining at the top table.
Cant help thinking that if you're takeaway from Allaho's past Ryanair wins is 'whats he beat' then you've made up your mind he's not a horse worth backing no matter what, which is fine. He had a tough race in the KG so who knows how he'll come out the race.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Did beating multiple mid 160's rated chasers on rails by 14L not impress you? It was a better performance than Vautour, and thats not a statement I make likely.
EA is by miles the best bet of those 4 IMO, but they all come with risk (as does Allaho tbf).
The Ryanair has been an ante post betting no mans land for years. It almost always looks stronger now on paper than it ever actually ends up being.
When you take out the wait for aintree brigade and those that go QMCC/GC, you're often left with horses that are very good but not dining at the top table.
Cant help thinking that if you're takeaway from Allaho's past Ryanair wins is 'whats he beat' then you've made up your mind he's not a horse worth backing no matter what, which is fine. He had a tough race in the KG so who knows how he'll come out the race.

Not at all. He was a very impressive winner of both Ryanair’s.

if he’s the same horse then I think he wins again.
Imo he’s shown signs he’s not, and I do think likely opposition will prove to be better than he faced before.
Plus I think there’s better value elsewhere.
So all in all I’m more than willing to take him on with the various opinions I have.

[YoungHustler]

People are being harsh on Allaho IMO. He was off for 561 days and ran to a debut RPR of 170 on heavy ground before losing the KG a length running to an RPR of 172. He pretty much lives in the 170+ bracket these days and we know, despite his win in the Punchestown Gold Cup, that he doesn't necessarily really want 3m, but, is a proper 2 1/2 mile specialist. We've seen 3 winners of the Ryanair in the last 19 years who are 10 years old so we know it's been done before and Allaho would be better than those 3. I suspect he'll go straight there and IMO he deserves to be a short priced fav. He may have regressed slightly but I look at the rest of the market and think he'd wallop most of them.

I agree with you Charlie and I still have Allaho as the winner of the Ryanair. He may not be able to run to 180 anymore but the important thing is that he doesn't need to. The King George was not his target and it's not as if he was tailed off. The Ryanair is his target where he'll be able to lead over a more suitable trip. As for the rest of the market, Envoi Allen is older and has never run to an RPR above 167 and no one would say he is improving. Appreciate It is not good enough. I do also have Stage Star in the book as he is the only improver imo and has ran to 170+. Edwarstone I also have to small stakes as can see him finishing well if Allaho does tire after setting his usual gallop.

[charlie]

I agree with you Charlie and I still have Allaho as the winner of the Ryanair. He may not be able to run to 180 anymore but the important thing is that he doesn't need to. The King George was not his target and it's not as if he was tailed off. The Ryanair is his target where he'll be able to lead over a more suitable trip. As for the rest of the market, Envoi Allen is older and has never run to an RPR above 167 and no one would say he is improving. Appreciate It is not good enough. I do also have Stage Star in the book as he is the only improver imo and has ran to 170+. Edwarstone I also have to small stakes as can see him finishing well if Allaho does tire after setting his usual gallop.

Really good point. You'd have thought he'd finished 15L back in 5th based on some of the comments you read here and elsewhere. He's also extremely uncomplicated. He's not ground dependent and can make all or slot in. We know why he didn't win the AB or BANC but is a multiple festival winner and when you think about how many 10 year olds have won at the festival (14 have won the QMCC, 3 have won the Ryanair etc), he'd go into Cheltenham 2024 with as good a chance as any IMO. Whats really important now is good stable vibes. Come out the race well and all that jazz.

[FinalFurlong91]

When has allaho ever looked as good in november/December as he does in the spring?

His form in the spring is lbs better

I probably wouldn't back him at current price

But as someone who's already on im definitely not writing him off

People are forgiving stage star for pulling up in a race in which most of his rivals were running out of the handicap but writing off allaho for finishing 3rd in the King george.

[ComplyOrDie]

When has allaho ever looked as good in november/December as he does in the spring?

His form in the spring is lbs better

Exactly. It's not rocket science either.

Worth remembering Vautour got beat in the King George before bolting up in the Ryanair.

Was Allaho's run in the King George really that bad? I don't think so. There was nothing between himself & Bravemansgame and he won the race last season by 14 lengths and recorded an RPR of 177, he recorded a 172 this season, so not a huge difference, he's also a Gold Cup 2nd and finished within touching distance of Galopin Des Champs in the Punchestown Gold Cup.

I think people are being a little harsh on Allaho, personally.

[Lobos]

Don't think anyone is writing him off. Just saying he's not unbeatable ??

[ComplyOrDie]

Don't think anyone is writing him off. Just saying he's not unbeatable ??

And I don't think anyone on here is saying he's unbeatable? Especially off the back of being beat!

[archie]

I'd be fairly confident that the most recent Allaho won't be beaten by the most recent Envoi Allen. Allaho's KG run is his highest ever December RPR and his 2 runs back from a 561 days break have RPRs that are 3lb and 5lb respectively higher than Envoi Allen has ever run in his entire chase career.

For me, the only potentially improving horse in the likely runners is Stage Star and I have a small question mark about his PP Gold Cup RPR because it's 10lb higher than any other performance.

Unless they throw a curve ball with Fastorslow, a fit Allaho will be close to evens on the day so 6/4 nrnb is, in my opinion, a very fair price.

[Carnage at Taunton]

One can always use ratings as a way of backing up one’s opinion, and nowt wrong with that.
Its not something I do really, mostly cos I don’t use ratings much when betting.
They are just someone’s opinion after all, and many a time I’ve read on here people debating them.
I prefer to use my eyes and look at form and ground conditions.
Ive got used to winning and losing that way and more than happy with that.
I watched both races that A and EA ran in over 3m this season and preferred the performance of EA, thought he travelled better and had no thought that he may have regressed from last year.
I think A has regressed from winning the Ryanair.
He still could win this year of course, and I may be well wrong, but happy to go with my thinking.

[archie]

One can always use ratings as a way of backing up one’s opinion, and nowt wrong with that.
Its not something I do really, mostly cos I don’t use ratings much when betting.
They are just someone’s opinion after all, and many a time I’ve read on here people debating them.
I prefer to use my eyes and look at form and ground conditions.
Ive got used to winning and losing that way and more than happy with that.
I watched both races that A and EA ran in over 3m this season and preferred the performance of EA, thought he travelled better and had no thought that he may have regressed from last year.
I think A has regressed from winning the Ryanair.
He still could win this year of course, and I may be well wrong, but happy to go with my thinking.

Clearly, you're fully entitled to your thinking. However, in relation to the Ryanair, using this season's 3m form and ignoring the 2m4f races seems contrary. I haven't yet backed Allaho yet (no need) and may only do so in combination bets so I'm more than happy to wish you the best of luck.