2024 Ryanair Chase

[opatcho]

He seems really well and is working nicely. He’s progressing all the time, but I’m not 100% sure if he’ll make it to the Betfair Chase. We’d like to start him there, but if he’s not as ready as we’d like him to be, we’ll wait for the Savills Chase at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting. We’ll know where we are with him from his work in the next week or so.

thanks for the update

[Joleg]

Bob Olinger at 33/1 anyone?

Bob seems to be in great form. He just wasn’t quite himself last season and we decided to pull stumps with him after his last start in January, give him a long break and look to start back from scratch this season. The intention is to go back over fences with him and we are looking at a conditions chase at Thurles at the end of November as his starting point. Hopefully, we can get him back to where he was a couple of seasons ago.

Just read the Stable Tour and was wondering if i was being stupid even considering it, but ...............

[JamieSensible]

Bob Olinger at 33/1 anyone?

Bob seems to be in great form. He just wasn’t quite himself last season and we decided to pull stumps with him after his last start in January, give him a long break and look to start back from scratch this season. The intention is to go back over fences with him and we are looking at a conditions chase at Thurles at the end of November as his starting point. Hopefully, we can get him back to where he was a couple of seasons ago.

I've had a nibble at 33/1, if anyone can get a horse right it's Henry

[FinalFurlong91]

Bob Olinger at 33/1 anyone?

Bob seems to be in great form. He just wasn’t quite himself last season and we decided to pull stumps with him after his last start in January, give him a long break and look to start back from scratch this season. The intention is to go back over fences with him and we are looking at a conditions chase at Thurles at the end of November as his starting point. Hopefully, we can get him back to where he was a couple of seasons ago.

We need a donkey emoji

[Kevloaf]

Was thinking about it a few weeks ago

Envoi Allen was a world beater until he lost his way
Samco very similar, before winning the turners

not sure whether either of those went off the tracks as bad as Bob. Just looks like there’s something physically wrong with him

33/1 would be way too short for me, would want twice that though

I though Rachael comments on A Plus Tard was really interesting, she appeared to have underlying confidence they had him back. Be interesting to see if they do, and whether the same level of confidence yielded the same results for Bob

66/1 for a horse than won the Turners (fortunately) to win the Ryanair is not a realistic price to want .... I want 100/1 but it won't happen

33/1 is a price with the potential to shorten significantly. Does it have a hugely significant potential to shorten..... probably not .... but cashout for plenty at the 33s so I can see why it'll get a few nibbles.



They don't come back as well .... but Allaho is popular enough




Appreciate It wins this anyway though. 8th November and I'm talking about the Ryanair. Bleeeeeuggghhhhhh

[Kevloaf]

He seems really well and is working nicely. He’s progressing all the time, but I’m not 100% sure if he’ll make it to the Betfair Chase. We’d like to start him there, but if he’s not as ready as we’d like him to be, we’ll wait for the Savills Chase at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting. We’ll know where we are with him from his work in the next week or so.

I think I'll back him at 25s and if he's not running can you let me know before the bookies

[darlojim]

I think I'll back him at 25s and if he's not running can you let me know before the bookies

Thats a quote from Henrys stable tour, if he were to run like you say 25s has to be a crazy price

[BuckingThe Trend]

In my opinion if Allaho comes back tomorrow at 75% the horse he was when winning this race in 2022 then he wins the Ryanair in 2024. OR 177 ad RPR 180. Nothing else comes even close. 10 years old yeah but he is so so much better than any other horse being talked about. Even Jonbon. Sit and wait would be my advice.

[Kevloaf]

In my opinion if Allaho comes back tomorrow at 75% the horse he was when winning this race in 2022 then he wins the Ryanair in 2024. OR 177 ad RPR 180. Nothing else comes even close. 10 years old yeah but he is so so much better than any other horse being talked about. Even Jonbon. Sit and wait would be my advice.

I don't like that analogy at all, about only needing to be 75% as good and that'd still be good enough

Been thinking about it for hours though and can't really pin point why, but then I think it's because of Sprinter Sacre winning the QMCC when he wasn't as good as he was



Then beyond that I literally can't think of any horse who has come back to win a G1 at a festival not being 100% ?

Maybe like Kauto Star bouncing back and things.... but then, we are talking about Allaho ... not Kauto or Sprinter.....

Maybe Allaho is up there, maybe retaining "some" of his ability is enough .... but how do we see that, a workmanlike beating of Janidil is probably good enough to place in a Ryanair regardless

[FinalFurlong91]

I don't like that analogy at all, about only needing to be 75% as good and that'd still be good enough

Been thinking about it for hours though and can't really pin point why, but then I think it's because of Sprinter Sacre winning the QMCC when he wasn't as good as he was



Then beyond that I literally can't think of any horse who has come back to win a G1 at a festival not being 100% ?

Maybe like Kauto Star bouncing back and things.... but then, we are talking about Allaho ... not Kauto or Sprinter.....

Maybe Allaho is up there, maybe retaining "some" of his ability is enough .... but how do we see that, a workmanlike beating of Janidil is probably good enough to place in a Ryanair regardless

What other open company grade 1 chase only requires a 165-168 performance to win?

if allaho retains his enthusiasm and stays sound what beats him?

If he was 3/1 I'd be dead against him but at 6s the worries are more than factored into the price

[Kevloaf]

What other open company grade 1 chase only requires a 165-168 performance to win?

if allaho retains his enthusiasm and stays sound what beats him?

If he was 3/1 I'd be dead against him but at 6s the worries are more than factored into the price

Well loads of horses could beat him, 75% of 177 OR is 133 though mate

133 won't win a Ryanair.


He'd need to come back at 90% to get an OR of 159

[Kevloaf]

In my opinion if Allaho comes back tomorrow at 75% the horse he was when winning this race in 2022 then he wins the Ryanair in 2024. OR 177 ad RPR 180. Nothing else comes even close. 10 years old yeah but he is so so much better than any other horse being talked about. Even Jonbon. Sit and wait would be my advice.

75% of OR 177 is an OR of 133

So he won't be winning at 75% of the horse he was

[FinalFurlong91]

Well loads of horses could beat him, 75% of 177 OR is 132 though mate

131 won't win a Ryanair.

Maths is maths but I'm sure you'll allow buckingthetrend some hyperbole

You now what he was getting at

[BuckingThe Trend]

75% of OR 177 is an OR of 133

So he won't be winning at 75% of the horse he was

Fair cop. Kevloaf you are mathematically correct. For 75% read "he just needs to be fit and won't need to be at his brilliant 2021/2022 best to win this years Ryanair". He'll be 10 in March so won't be as good as his previous wins but if he is fit he should win this in a canter. For the record that's hyperbole Kevloaf. He won't actually win if he canters.

Apologies if my hyperbolic statement caused you hours of stress.

Anyways. Good luck to Allaho and the team today. Would be great to see him back on the track and hopefully winning "in a canter".

[jono]

Allaho a hard one to weight up for me.
I can see why you’d get involved now, given he’s even this morning shortened now to a general 4/1.

I’ve fallen victim in the past to doing it, but I’d say as soon as the talk of “If a horse is only at X% of his previous ability”
It’s very often a red flag.
And importantly there won’t be too many big days ahead from that point.
Which makes me more cautious that whilst he could have enough for today, and potentially his next race. Even a sub par Ryanair may prove beyond him, 2 aces down the line.

And I do think , whilst sometimes horses can look to have bundles in hand. The margins can be finer than they seem.
And it only takes a couple of factors to make a big impact. (A year older and a setback)

Istabraq mentioned getting involved for him at a NRNB price.
Assuming he wins today, I’m not sure 3/1 or anything like would be there NRNB.
But I’d echo that strategy and rather weigh in at maybe 7/4 - 9/4 NRNB.
3 months later where we’ll know so much more.
Even waiting until the day where I’d be almost certain someone would be offering some form of odds against.