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I think if shishkin had stood up and won he would have performed to at least 180 which is why i think the race is rated correctly. In you're opening post you was clear you think it is over rated, this is the opinion i'm against.
As i've mentioned in a previous post hewicks rprs on good ground entitle him to have run to 173 in this king george. He's a proper stayer on good ground and was just getting going, in handicap chases he can dictate from the front he couldn't keep up in this grade 1.
I appreciate your time and just for clarity i'm not arguing with you here
Just a healthy debate. Both agree Shishkin was best of them all in the race. If he stood up, I've said I think he beats Hewick by a minimum of 3 lengths and probably more.
As you say, just disagreeing on the rating of the front 3. The KG and Clonmel Oil suggest to me Allaho has regressed, even comparing him to his John Durkan win in 2021. I think that was a better performance than the 2 this year but RPRs think the John Durkan was worse than both. We won't find out until the Ryanair I suppose.
Maybe we can get back to a civilised discussion on opinions.
I did indeed express the opinion that 6/4 nrnb is a fair price for Allaho quoting some RPR figures to support that opinion. To be fair, in the past I've regularly dissed RPRs as just another opinion that most of us only use when it backs up our own. However, if you look at a table listed by OR/RPR this season/Timeform rating, you get:
173/172/171 Allaho
166/171/165 Stage Star
164/167/164 Envoi Allen
164/167/167 Edwardstone
That would seem to confirm my previous reservation over Stage Star's RPR for the handicap win but, otherwise, the opinions of all three compilers are roughly in line. Of course, RPR is a rating based on a specific performance whereas OR and Timeform are predictive of what a horse could run to today but they are widely used together and are basically on the same scale so it's not unreasonable to put them side by side.
On the specific rating of the King George and the Savills, the same figures show:
Again, it seems to indicate that the KG RPRs weren't outrageous. For my part, I thought that Shishkin's stumble happened at a critical time of the race because he impeded both BMG and Allaho with little time to regain proper momentum for the final jump. I'm of the opinion that Shishkin would probably have won but probably by no more than a couple of lengths or so. I'm aware that others have different opinions but, frankly my dear......
Good luck with yours.
Shishkin struggled in last years Ryanair, looked outpaced, looked uncomfortable. I do think Shiskin and BMG are better animals around Kempton but I would be knocking a few lbs off both of them heading into Cheltenham
Allaho, off that pace in the KG should have had all these rowing at 6 out. He didn’t. Could be strip a few lbs fitter going into the Ryanair, possible but not likely
with the likes of Stage Star up front, with one or two isp there to try and start him from having a easy lead, I expect the Ryanair to go at a clip
My approach, and this is just my approach, will be to look at a speedier horse that’s going up in trip, and not a horse coming back down in trip
It’s a shame Edwardstone’s 10, and this wasn’t a year earlier as I’d be all over him. Ex-QM horses do well when stepping onto the Ryanair (Min, UDS, Envoi Allen, Shiskin)
A interesting race this…. hard one to solve but an interesting one indeed
Why hasn't bravemansgame run to within 5lbs of last years kg win? He was going over the 2nd last level with l'homme presse last year, he was a length down on a superstar this year and a length ahead of allaho?
Enjoyed reading the overall debate on a race i couldn't give fiddlers on for antepost purposes...
Probably an unpopular opinion but I'm glad that Frodon has retired.
Sick to death of watching everyone let Bryony get to the front on him and start stop start stop, I think it unsettles most horses - so fair play for the tactic - and ruins some horses races.
Allaho logically won't be the same horse as before as many aren't after an injury let alone at 10 vs 8, but I would absolutely expect him to in with a chance coming over the last, and the main challengers haven't had faultless performances themselves.
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