2024 Ryanair Chase

[SeanRock]

Cheers pal. Nicky is basically telling us he'll come here isn't he? I might 6/1 boosted actually, best its going to get

Either here or 2m4f at Aintree. Provided El Fabulous stays sound I can’t see JP’s team wanting to follow him around for scraps in the CC. He was taken off his feet by Calico at Warwick last year after all. He’s crying out for the mid distance imo.

[TigerRolllllll]

I think Jonbon only goes here if El Fab looks v strong for CC

So best way to cover this is prob a double at 15-1ish

[Nevertoolate]

I think Jonbon only goes here if El Fab looks v strong for CC

So best way to cover this is prob a double at 15-1ish

He already does look very strong though doesn’t he? Only real rival at this stage is jonbon who he swatted aside already this year. I’d love to see jonbon stepped up but do agree I feel it’s 50/50 now after the energumene news today

[TCH29]

Hendo would be mad not to send Jonbon here. He surely wants upping in trip. He won’t beat El Fabiolo but should beat anything in this race. Immediately after the Arkle, I thought he needed to go to the Ryanair.

[Guinness Village]

Jonbon will go to Queen mum. He’ll be unbeaten, including Clarence House and off to chelts with a good chance. Only doubt would have been energumene beating him at ascot. Well that ain’t gonna happen now.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Jonbon will go to Queen mum. He’ll be unbeaten, including Clarence House and off to chelts with a good chance. Only doubt would have been energumene beating him at ascot. Well that ain’t gonna happen now.

Yeah
Hes the 2nd best at 2m around.
Who knows what improvement both he and EF will find this season. It’s possible one might find more than the other.
Trainer has said he starts off in the Tingle Creek.
Win that and he stays at 2 m imo.
Maybe as the season progresses he may step
him up, but right now he’s a 2 miler and a good one.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Either here or 2m4f at Aintree. Provided El Fabulous stays sound I can’t see JP’s team wanting to follow him around for scraps in the CC. He was taken off his feet by Calico at Warwick last year after all. He’s crying out for the mid distance imo.

Aintree more likely imo.
Unless he struggles at 2m this season.
Ive never taken the race with Calico too seriously, if that’s his form he’s not an Arkle runner up and he’s not winning at Aintree and Sandown either imo.

[billymag]

Not sure if mentioned on here but Edwardstone is being stepped up, could see him trying the King George which at 50/1 isnt the craziest bet to place (50/1 is win price). I could see him turning up here in the Ryanair if as is likely hes beaten in the KG. 20/1 looks just a touch skinny without an entry yet but think i could be tempted with an entry to show his well being.

[charlie]

Yeah
Hes the 2nd best at 2m around.
Who knows what improvement both he and EF will find this season. It’s possible one might find more than the other.
Trainer has said he starts off in the Tingle Creek.
Win that and he stays at 2 m imo.
Maybe as the season progresses he may step
him up, but right now he’s a 2 miler and a good one.

In case others haven't seen what Nicky said his exact words were:

'I'll be amazed if that at some stage we don't look at 2 and half miles but at the moment we'll probably start in the Tingle Creek'.

So Nicky is saying it's highly likely he'll step up and probably go TC, which you've taken as he's definitely going TC and will stay at 2m? What does winning the TC even mean vs the dross we have here? Jonbons participation here hangs in the balance and depends entirely now on El Fabiolo, who looks fundamentally the much better animal.

There is more meat on the bone re Jonbon going up and not just the interview last week. Last month Nicky said:

'I think all of us put our heads together and thought well he just needs two and half now, he's by Walk In The Park, won his PTP, and looks as if he needed further so the idea was to go to Aintree over two and half but when we did the entries it was entries it was blatantly obvious that the 2m novice chase was far easier than the two and half mile novice chase'

He will probably start over 2m because the TC is a winnable valuable G1, but it's impossible to conclude he will remain at 2m based on what the trainer is saying.

[Carnage at Taunton]

In case others haven't seen what Nicky said his exact words were:

'I'll be amazed if that at some stage we don't look at 2 and half miles but at the moment we'll probably start in the Tingle Creek'.

So Nicky is saying it's highly likely he'll step up and probably go TC, which you've taken as he's definitely going TC and will stay at 2m? What does winning the TC even mean vs the dross we have here? Jonbons participation here hangs in the balance and depends entirely now on El Fabiolo, who looks fundamentally the much better animal.

There is more meat on the bone re Jonbon going up and not just the interview last week. Last month Nicky said:

'I think all of us put our heads together and thought well he just needs two and half now, he's by Walk In The Park, won his PTP, and looks as if he needed further so the idea was to go to Aintree over two and half but when we did the entries it was entries it was blatantly obvious that the 2m novice chase was far easier than the two and half mile novice chase'

He will probably start over 2m because the TC is a winnable valuable G1, but it's impossible to conclude he will remain at 2m based on what the trainer is saying.

Well we can all interpret things differently, and maybe there’s an element of what we want and bets placed.
I actually said after his Haydock nov hurdle run he looked like further than 2 m would suit him better.
Trainer obviously feels now he would as well.
I do think there’s a case of him winning the TC and then going on to win other big 2 m races here like the Clarence House, and staying at 2 m for Cheltenham, and I hope that’s the case. I think he can jump better than he did in the Arkle and would love to see him take on EF again.
Maybe he will go Ryanair and we have another shite QM.
Maybe as the season unfolds it becomes clear we have a clash to look forward to in the QM.
Anyway lots to happen yet this season.

[charlie]

Well we can all interpret things differently, and maybe there’s an element of what we want and bets placed.
I actually said after his Haydock nov hurdle run he looked like further than 2 m would suit him better.
Trainer obviously feels now he would as well.
I do think there’s a case of him winning the TC and then going on to win other big 2 m races here like the Clarence House, and staying at 2 m for Cheltenham, and I hope that’s the case. I think he can jump better than he did in the Arkle and would love to see him take on EF again.
Maybe he will go Ryanair and we have another shite QM.
Maybe as the season unfolds it becomes clear we have a clash to look forward to in the QM.
Anyway lots to happen yet this season.

Absolutely. It's a tough gig interpreting trainer comments but it's important to include the original comment/quotes because what a trainer actually says is almost always more valuable than our interpretations of it.

I remember now - you were vehemently in camp Jonbon vs EF all season, must have been a rough Arkle

Based on what Nicky has been saying all summer and last week, they think Jonbon wants further and reading between the lines, could be a potential gold cup horse. If thats the case they'll plan his career trajectory accordingly. Taking in the TC and CH over 2m vs the dross we have here doesn't mean they'll be in a rush to take on EF, why would they, he's a better animal and Nicky likes the easier option always. Thats not to say he couldn't go QMCC then GC next year, a move made more recently by Sizing John, but, Henderson wants winners and if this race looks there for the taking with Jonbon he'll snatch it, but I'd have Jonbons participation here at 50/50 based entirely on EF's wellbeing. The doubles are getting taken.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Hahaha, yes it was a rough Arkle for me.
I have been putting little offer bets on Jonbon and have accumulated a nice pay out should he win the QM.
Im convinced he’s better than his Arkle run and have acted on that, so would be a huge disappointment for him not to run.
However I do recognise that EF is in front of him, but however good EF proves to be this season ,he is only one horse,plus right now I do not know how either will perform this season.
If Jonbon goes Ryanair then that proves I’m wrong, as no way would they do that if they thought they could win the QM.
Not the first time I would have to take it on the chin, and no doubt not the last either!!

[Exar Essay]

In case others haven't seen what Nicky said his exact words were:

'I'll be amazed if that at some stage we don't look at 2 and half miles but at the moment we'll probably start in the Tingle Creek'.

So Nicky is saying it's highly likely he'll step up and probably go TC, which you've taken as he's definitely going TC and will stay at 2m? What does winning the TC even mean vs the dross we have here? Jonbons participation here hangs in the balance and depends entirely now on El Fabiolo, who looks fundamentally the much better animal.

There is more meat on the bone re Jonbon going up and not just the interview last week. Last month Nicky said:

'I think all of us put our heads together and thought well he just needs two and half now, he's by Walk In The Park, won his PTP, and looks as if he needed further so the idea was to go to Aintree over two and half but when we did the entries it was entries it was blatantly obvious that the 2m novice chase was far easier than the two and half mile novice chase'

He will probably start over 2m because the TC is a winnable valuable G1, but it's impossible to conclude he will remain at 2m based on what the trainer is saying.

Just so we've the full set, he also said this in his ATR stable tour:

"I was considering stepping up to two and a half miles, but Sandown probably told us to stay at two miles for now. He has developed both physically and mentally and let’s hope he has a very bright future."

That implies more heavily that he'll be kept at 2m for a prolonged period. Still not concrete, but on that quote alone, you'd be thinking QMCC.

All quotes we have were pre Energumene news too. Factoring that in, if Jonbon is unbeaten come March, I would be quite surprised if he didn't take up a rematch with El Fab.

[Istabraq]

Maybe we're all guilty of placing too much stock in what comes from Hendo's mouth.
Remember this time last year he had four potential Supreme winners he was about to 'let loose'....

[Benjy23]

I think Jonbon only goes here if El Fab looks v strong for CC

So best way to cover this is prob a double at 15-1ish

Agree with this being the sensible way to play it.

Quite like a few outsiders in the Ryanair at the moment; Bronn, Saint Sam and Saint Roi... But Jonbon coming here would mix things up a bit too much for my liking.