2024 Triumph Hurdle (Juveniles)

[Joeski29]

I was tempted to cash mine out but it’s dropped by £60 overnight so will probably leave it.
Prefer it when it’s one of the non cash out bookies so I don’t have that temptation though

[Lobos]

I could have cashed as well for a nice profit, still can, but not going to.
Love to get a short priced one at much bigger price running at the festival.
What antepost is all about for me.

I hear you and that's me too normally . This is the first time I've ever cashed a big priced one that's gone so short. I really had a good think about doing it but the amount they were offering would be enough to pay for all my drinks, food and gambling for a full day next week and it just felt right. The race is on the 3rd day as well so much can happen before then.

[Rooster Booster]

Guess I’m just an old gambler that takes it on the chin when that sort of thing happens

But you have got me thinking!!

I actually typed out a long involved post that picked up on some of the responses here but a few days before lift off is not the right time to go down certain paths and so despite spending 30 minutes typing out my post I hit cancel.

Every one has their different strategies. Some are defensive in nature some are attacking and some in the middle. All will have their pluses and minuses. The trick is to land on what’s right for you and is congruent with your main objectives whether that’s profit, excitement, fun or whatever. You should always listen to smart people and be open to their influence and there are many on here but listening to yourself is the smartest thing of all.

[Benjy23]

It's nice that second paragraph. Have a like.

But to go against it and throw my own opinion at everyone else anyway... It's surely all relative to the loss of profit you'd be accepting by cashing out an antepost position and backing NRNB. If it's for equal return and no additional stake then it's a no brainer of course. Anything more than a 10% cut (which is very likely with cash out offerings) and it'd probably be a no from me. Are more than 10% of horses from now not going to make it to the festival? If the answer to that is 'no' (which it is) then the value play is to let it ride. And the whole purpose of the game for me is value (losers).

There may be some circumstances when you think a horse may drift from current position and you could cash out and sit on it for a few days, but that's not the scenario offered here.

[That Horse]

Cash out greyed out now, not saying it's anything sinister, the five day decs are this morning so assume it's related to that

[Carnage at Taunton]

Cash out greyed out now, not saying it's anything sinister, the five day decs are this morning so assume it's related to that

Yeah I will take a look after decs, see what the position is then.

[Quevega]

I actually typed out a long involved post that picked up on some of the responses here but a few days before lift off is not the right time to go down certain paths and so despite spending 30 minutes typing out my post I hit cancel.

Every one has their different strategies. Some are defensive in nature some are attacking and some in the middle. All will have their pluses and minuses. The trick is to land on what’s right for you and is congruent with your main objectives whether that’s profit, excitement, fun or whatever. You should always listen to smart people and be open to their influence and there are many on here but listening to yourself is the smartest thing of all.

Unless you're a schizophrenic or self aware idiot !
Only joking, I agree, it's personal choice for sure but just think it through.

I've done it routinely after doing it/or not doing it with something I had at 50-1 - can't remember which horse but could have been Energumene's arkle, and it missed the race very near the day.

Not sure what Benji meant to be fair, but Sir Gino is a perfect example of when I believe this should be done or at least considered.

The odds work out very well as cash out has been between 40-50% for a month now. If you had the widely available 16's from early season.
Meaning anything above even money and you'd not be losing much of the overall return and in my case 11/8 would do it.

The 2 main risks is something happening that means the price goes really short, and in this race, there are so many Mullins runners this would be unlikely, as it's not like he's only got one serious rival or even 2. Then there are the chance of offers being available after decs or on preview nights. I do think in this case it was always likely given the type of festival Mullins is likely to have that he would be available above even money on the day.

The actual main risk for me though is that I cannot force myself to put all the cashed money back on him when it comes down to it, and for whatever reason I don't bother, and then he wins.

When I've done this in the past, as it's something I do regularly, I've often not put the whole amount back and used the remainder for a double or acca with other big chances I've nothing on. This works for me as I have often got the 2nd and 3rd Favs for races where the opposition is weak enough.

I get that the pyschology will differ per individual, but I'm more logical and find it hard to ignore logical paths when the name of this game is to be able to afford to continue, preferably at a profit.

[Odin]

The actual main risk for me though is that I cannot force myself to put all the cashed money back on him when it comes down to it, and for whatever reason I don't bother, and then he wins.

This is definitely something I've struggled with this year with my deconstructed roll ups. The number of times I've not thought twice about putting 1pt on the roll up but the second it comes to deconstructing it and turning that 1pt roll up into a 7pt single after the first horse has won is frightening. Sometimes it's easier (for me) to just accept the 1pt is lost on the roll up, rather than consider 7pts were lost on the single if that makes sense? I know mathematically it makes no sense, but emotionally there's something in there for me which I need to work on

[Quevega]

Another anecdote on a similar vein.
When I find myself in a good position I try and not get complacent and not ignore the signals.

Conflated was available at 12-1 for the cross country and discussed on here (in charlies diary mainly) and I grabbed some of the price as soon as Gordon mentioned it in his pre season stable tour.

But when he kept being entered in the grade ones and he was Gigginstown's only option in the Ryanair in a race they have never not had a runner I began to cover him for that race at triple figures as someone was keen to lay him at that (also mentioned on here)

I was also able to lay him at around 3-1 for the Cross country to cover my original stake for the Cross country placed with Paddy's, and have since laid him for the Ryanair to ensure profit leaving a healthy profit should he prevail.

I should say that I will have faffed around with other horses in a similar fashion (not many) but I will have done and these will not all look so clever/pretty.

[Quevega]

This is definitely something I've struggled with this year with my deconstructed roll ups. The number of times I've not thought twice about putting 1pt on the roll up but the second it comes to deconstructing it and turning that 1pt roll up into a 7pt single after the first horse has won is frightening. Sometimes it's easier (for me) to just accept the 1pt is lost on the roll up, rather than consider 7pts were lost on the single if that makes sense? I know mathematically it makes no sense, but emotionally there's something in there for me which I need to work on

Definitely, especially when the perception of the second legs chances fluctuate, in your own mind and the market.

[Brital]

This is definitely something I've struggled with this year with my deconstructed roll ups. The number of times I've not thought twice about putting 1pt on the roll up but the second it comes to deconstructing it and turning that 1pt roll up into a 7pt single after the first horse has won is frightening. Sometimes it's easier (for me) to just accept the 1pt is lost on the roll up, rather than consider 7pts were lost on the single if that makes sense? I know mathematically it makes no sense, but emotionally there's something in there for me which I need to work on

This reminds me of a similar situation I experienced probably around 25 years ago.
I was following a tipster who’d send a weekend double in the post. His record had been pretty poor so I decided to give him one last go.

As it was the last throw of the dice decided to put £20 on (big money for me then & now!).
This was the days before online accounts and I was actually at Aintree that Saturday so put the first leg on with the bookie covering the other meeting.
It won at 10/1. Could I put £200 on the second leg - not a chance.

Ended up putting £50 on, and never been so gutted to see a winner cross the line

[Carnage at Taunton]

Thank you for all your comments, been really interesting reading and helpful
Will let you know what I decide….. if you are interested
Mind you if it stays greyed out, it don’t matter!!
Not an expert on cash out, is it likely to come back after the dec stage today?

[Rooster Booster]

Unless you're a schizophrenic or self aware idiot !
Only joking, I agree, it's personal choice for sure but just think it through.

I've done it routinely after doing it/or not doing it with something I had at 50-1 - can't remember which horse but could have been Energumene's arkle, and it missed the race very near the day.

Not sure what Benji meant to be fair, but Sir Gino is a perfect example of when I believe this should be done or at least considered.

The odds work out very well as cash out has been between 40-50% for a month now. If you had the widely available 16's from early season.
Meaning anything above even money and you'd not be losing much of the overall return and in my case 11/8 would do it.

The 2 main risks is something happening that means the price goes really short, and in this race, there are so many Mullins runners this would be unlikely, as it's not like he's only got one serious rival or even 2. Then there are the chance of offers being available after decs or on preview nights. I do think in this case it was always likely given the type of festival Mullins is likely to have that he would be available above even money on the day.

The actual main risk for me though is that I cannot force myself to put all the cashed money back on him when it comes down to it, and for whatever reason I don't bother, and then he wins.

When I've done this in the past, as it's something I do regularly, I've often not put the whole amount back and used the remainder for a double or acca with other big chances I've nothing on. This works for me as I have often got the 2nd and 3rd Favs for races where the opposition is weak enough.

I get that the pyschology will differ per individual, but I'm more logical and find it hard to ignore logical paths when the name of this game is to be able to afford to continue, preferably at a profit.

Totally understand and I am not disagreeing with your rationale. You make some interesting observations to around the psychology of things that I absolutely believe are key here. When the festival is over I will provide an alternative perspective . My intention would not be to challenge people’s existing strategies particularly those that are based upon sound logic but to possibly re ignite the fire for folks that are feeling a little jaded with things right now.

A few key individuals on here including Kev himself have shared that their enthusiasm has started to wane and I think it would be interesting to discuss ways in which folks could feel reenergised

[Carnage at Taunton]

Well cash out is back after the latest decs,and for the same amount as before so learnt something there

[YoungHustler]

Unless you're a schizophrenic or self aware idiot !
Only joking, I agree, it's personal choice for sure but just think it through.

I've done it routinely after doing it/or not doing it with something I had at 50-1 - can't remember which horse but could have been Energumene's arkle, and it missed the race very near the day.

Not sure what Benji meant to be fair, but Sir Gino is a perfect example of when I believe this should be done or at least considered.

The odds work out very well as cash out has been between 40-50% for a month now. If you had the widely available 16's from early season.
Meaning anything above even money and you'd not be losing much of the overall return and in my case 11/8 would do it.

The 2 main risks is something happening that means the price goes really short, and in this race, there are so many Mullins runners this would be unlikely, as it's not like he's only got one serious rival or even 2. Then there are the chance of offers being available after decs or on preview nights. I do think in this case it was always likely given the type of festival Mullins is likely to have that he would be available above even money on the day.

The actual main risk for me though is that I cannot force myself to put all the cashed money back on him when it comes down to it, and for whatever reason I don't bother, and then he wins.

When I've done this in the past, as it's something I do regularly, I've often not put the whole amount back and used the remainder for a double or acca with other big chances I've nothing on. This works for me as I have often got the 2nd and 3rd Favs for races where the opposition is weak enough.

I get that the pyschology will differ per individual, but I'm more logical and find it hard to ignore logical paths when the name of this game is to be able to afford to continue, preferably at a profit.

Another factor to take into account is that large cash outs get flagged and could be an account restricter if you're seen to be profiting regularly in this way.

In situations where I'm lucky enough to be on at large odds and the horse is now very short, I'd much rather lay off on the exchanges.