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I've been looking a bit more closely at Bottler'secret after his debut run last Sunday, and I thought that he was pretty impressive in the way that he opened up after the last, as it looked as though they'd gone a decent pace. He was given an RPR of 135 for that, which as far as I can see is a higher figure than any other of this year's Triumph entries for their debut hurdles run, and not only that, it'a a higher figure than was achieved by all but one of the last 10 Triumph winners on debut (only Ivanovich Gorbatov with 138 had a higher figure).
I'm aware that people will place varying degrees of faith in RPR figures, but to me that indicates that it was a more than promising debut, and there's got to be a chance that he goes on to improve considerably from that on his second run. By way of comparison, even if we exclude Sir Gino's much touted French debut run (RPR 112) to defeat Salvator Mundi, he went from an RPR of 130 at Kempton to 143 at Cheltenham, which gives an indication of the potential for improvement in these juveniles.
Cromwell's comments after the race were "It would have been nice to come here with a bit of experience. I just thought that coming here at this time of the year, we will pitch him in at the deep end and if we still had a maiden for next season, well and good. But here we are! he's in the Triumph – I don't know if he'll go. If he had a bit more experience I would say he would definitely go, but we'll see. There are plenty of opportunities if we don't.". To me, that sounds 50/50 whether he'll run in the Triumph or not, and I hope that he'll look at victories in successive years from Pentland Hills and Burning Victory (admittedly very fortuitously after the Goshen incident) who both won with just one previous hurdle run, and think that it's well worth giving him a go.
Either way, I think that the 20/1 NRNB looks to be hugely overpriced with no risk, but I've taken a punt with a point at an average of 76/1 on the exchange, which I'm happy to lose if he doesn't run, but would potentially look massive if he does.
I'm aware that people will place varying degrees of faith in RPR figures, but to me that indicates that it was a more than promising debut, and there's got to be a chance that he goes on to improve considerably from that on his second run. By way of comparison, even if we exclude Sir Gino's much touted French debut run (RPR 112) to defeat Salvator Mundi, he went from an RPR of 130 at Kempton to 143 at Cheltenham, which gives an indication of the potential for improvement in these juveniles.
Cromwell's comments after the race were "It would have been nice to come here with a bit of experience. I just thought that coming here at this time of the year, we will pitch him in at the deep end and if we still had a maiden for next season, well and good. But here we are! he's in the Triumph – I don't know if he'll go. If he had a bit more experience I would say he would definitely go, but we'll see. There are plenty of opportunities if we don't.". To me, that sounds 50/50 whether he'll run in the Triumph or not, and I hope that he'll look at victories in successive years from Pentland Hills and Burning Victory (admittedly very fortuitously after the Goshen incident) who both won with just one previous hurdle run, and think that it's well worth giving him a go.
Either way, I think that the 20/1 NRNB looks to be hugely overpriced with no risk, but I've taken a punt with a point at an average of 76/1 on the exchange, which I'm happy to lose if he doesn't run, but would potentially look massive if he does.
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