2024 Stayers Hurdle

[Eggs]

If Willie actually wanted to win this race he'd run Impaire et passe

Say he beats teahupoo in the hattons grace

Then loses to state man at 2 miles

2 very realistic scenarios

Why would they then run both against constitution hill

Will be one il be looking at having a large bet on once NRNB comes in

….Mullins Stable Tour;

We've decided to stay over hurdles. His owners were keen to have a shot at the Champion Hurdle and I think he'll have a fair crack at it. He was impressive in the Ballymore and the only reason he ran in it is that we had Facile Vega for the Supreme. He needs to improve a fair bit to beat Constitution Hill, but someone has to take him on. We might start him off in the Hatton's Grace at Fairyhouse, although he has an entry in the Morgiana too. Hopefully he'll be good enough to be a Champion Hurdle type and I see he's second favourite for it. I’d imagine he'll go to the Hatton's Grace, the Dublin Racing Festival and then on to Cheltenham to hopefully have a crack at the Champion Hurdle. He appears to have the pace for it and has stamina over the minimum trip too, which you need.

[Lobos]

It's probably best not to use the exchanges if you don't know how. But you can back Sir Gerhard at a higher price than you can lay Marie's Rock at. There's no way he can be considered shorter at the moment.

It would take about a fiver to make him shorter because there's no liquidity in most antepost markets but it's just factually incorrect to say he is ahead of her in the market like.

I don't use it. Never had an account. Just something to look at and compare prices.

[Benjy23]

I don't use it. Never had an account. Just something to look at and compare prices.

Fair enough. That'll be part of your problem. If you log in you actually get slightly different view on the markets. Not even sure why that is.

[Runragged]

Love the discussion on this thread having just caught up on the last couple of days worth. Do think people can get very set in their minds about what they think/believe will happen that they can then not see reason to any other arguments. Like Shishkin in head gear, they plant themselves and won't budge! That's not limited to just this thread btw.

Anyway, where do we start? Crambo's RPR (and the other runners) would be based on the consistencies that we know. Slate House is unexposed and an improver who has now won his last four (three in handicap company and therefore last two when the handicapper has penalised him as he felt fit). He gives no accurate guide to base a race of not knowing where is improvement ends. Fine Margin was stepping up to 3m for the first time but had switched yards and clearly improved on anything he had shown previous. Crambo had won his last race and though not necessarily suited to how the race has run, he has still run a good race and run to an improved level having gone up 6lb in the weights. Gowel Road was having his first try at 3m also but seemed a fairly consistent horse who had run to an RPR of 140+ 5 times from 12 runs previous. Seemed to find a rating of 145 too high in the Coral Cup in 2022 and thus was able to race off 140 with his absence. Bold Endeavour is the real marker though. Third in a 3m handicap over course and distance in May off a mark of 140 and running to a 142 RPR. Pretty consistent, his last 4 hurdle runs were all within 7lb of each other according to RPR at trips between 2m 4f and 3m including last time when 3rd at Newbury over 3m and given a 137. Lord Snootie in 6th, another horse who had consistent RPRs going in at trips around 3m. A blunder last time at Galway probably prevented him from another RPR in the low 120s. Santos Blue in 7th had shown promise on only try at 3m when 3rd behind Broadway Boy at Cheltenham last season and returned with an encouraging run when finishing 2 1/2 lengths behind Crambo. With a 6lb pull he is a further 6 lengths behind suggesting Crambo has improved slightly for the run whereas Santos Blue has regressed a touch. He does give another accurate measure when trying to determine RPRs having peaked twice with RPRs of 129 the last twice and given 126 for this.

What I am getting at is that the race when assessing RPRs wouldn't be largely based on the 1st, 2nd and 3rd somewhat, but more on those horses that seemed to run their race in behind with the likes of Gowel Road but more so Bold Endeavour, Lord Snootie and Santos Blue. None of that is to say that in the future the RPRs for those ahead won't rise or that they are not capable of more. In fact the front three all ran their best RPRs so look to be improving and can surely post even higher ratings. However, when assessed purely in the context of this race then what they have been given appear right, give or take a pound.

Apologies if I have confused anyone there. Feel free to skip it all. Just giving an example of how I would handicap and assess the rating of a race.

Oh, and Buddys One won't be disgraced in the Hatton's Grace. Doubt he will win but hoping for a nice eyecatching race a few lengths behind...

[Runragged]

Forgot to add, don't know if State Man will take on Impaire En Passe before Cheltenham. Think the idea was SM would mop up small field graded prizes like he did last year. Seems very well suited to the way those races are run. Not sure if there are enough races on the calendar to be kept apart, though running IET at 2m 4f is one way.

[AaronLad]

Love the discussion on this thread having just caught up on the last couple of days worth. Do think people can get very set in their minds about what they think/believe will happen that they can then not see reason to any other arguments. Like Shishkin in head gear, they plant themselves and won't budge! That's not limited to just this thread btw.

Anyway, where do we start? Crambo's RPR (and the other runners) would be based on the consistencies that we know. Slate House is unexposed and an improver who has now won his last four (three in handicap company and therefore last two when the handicapper has penalised him as he felt fit). He gives no accurate guide to base a race of not knowing where is improvement ends. Fine Margin was stepping up to 3m for the first time but had switched yards and clearly improved on anything he had shown previous. Crambo had won his last race and though not necessarily suited to how the race has run, he has still run a good race and run to an improved level having gone up 6lb in the weights. Gowel Road was having his first try at 3m also but seemed a fairly consistent horse who had run to an RPR of 140+ 5 times from 12 runs previous. Seemed to find a rating of 145 too high in the Coral Cup in 2022 and thus was able to race off 140 with his absence. Bold Endeavour is the real marker though. Third in a 3m handicap over course and distance in May off a mark of 140 and running to a 142 RPR. Pretty consistent, his last 4 hurdle runs were all within 7lb of each other according to RPR at trips between 2m 4f and 3m including last time when 3rd at Newbury over 3m and given a 137. Lord Snootie in 6th, another horse who had consistent RPRs going in at trips around 3m. A blunder last time at Galway probably prevented him from another RPR in the low 120s. Santos Blue in 7th had shown promise on only try at 3m when 3rd behind Broadway Boy at Cheltenham last season and returned with an encouraging run when finishing 2 1/2 lengths behind Crambo. With a 6lb pull he is a further 6 lengths behind suggesting Crambo has improved slightly for the run whereas Santos Blue has regressed a touch. He does give another accurate measure when trying to determine RPRs having peaked twice with RPRs of 129 the last twice and given 126 for this.

What I am getting at is that the race when assessing RPRs wouldn't be largely based on the 1st, 2nd and 3rd somewhat, but more on those horses that seemed to run their race in behind with the likes of Gowel Road but more so Bold Endeavour, Lord Snootie and Santos Blue. None of that is to say that in the future the RPRs for those ahead won't rise or that they are not capable of more. In fact the front three all ran their best RPRs so look to be improving and can surely post even higher ratings. However, when assessed purely in the context of this race then what they have been given appear right, give or take a pound.

Apologies if I have confused anyone there. Feel free to skip it all. Just giving an example of how I would handicap and assess the rating of a race.

Oh, and Buddys One won't be disgraced in the Hatton's Grace. Doubt he will win but hoping for a nice eyecatching race a few lengths behind...

lovely explanation of rpr's
in this race you've analysed, gowel road carried 1lb more than crambo but finished 2 lengths behind. Now imo crambo should have a higher rpr by 1lb, that doesn't even take into account such an eyecatching finish. is this something you could explain?
With bold endeavour as the "marker" only crambos rpr is correct with adjusted weights of those that finished ahead

[Kevloaf]

If Willie actually wanted to win this race he'd run Impaire et passe

Say he beats teahupoo in the hattons grace

Then loses to state man at 2 miles

2 very realistic scenarios

Why would they then run both against constitution hill

Will be one il be looking at having a large bet on once NRNB comes in

Owners want to run IEP in the Champion Hurdle has to be a factor.

2 darts for Willie gives them a better chance of beating Constitution Hill too ..... one ridden from the front, one stalking .... just hoping they topple him


After Love Envoi gives Constitution Hill a scare this weekend it won't look as scary anyway

[Odin]

What I am getting at is that the race when assessing RPRs wouldn't be largely based on the 1st, 2nd and 3rd somewhat, but more on those horses that seemed to run their race in behind with the likes of Gowel Road but more so Bold Endeavour, Lord Snootie and Santos Blue.

At what point do think a horse has or hasn't run his race? For me, the latter two of those mentioned (Lord Snootie and Santos Blue) being 8 lengths behind the winners makes me question whether they can or can't be used as accurate markers. It's something I've spent a lot of time trying to grapple with when it's much easier to see that an Irish novice hasn't run to form when 15l behind a Mullins horse, but maybe I'm being a bit harsh in saying these guys may not have run to form here? Do you or does anyone have a generic heuristic they use for this as I've tended to focus on the first 2-3 horses when assessing RPRs which would be much more difficult in this situation

[Runragged]

At what point do think a horse has or hasn't run his race? For me, the latter two of those mentioned (Lord Snootie and Santos Blue) being 8 lengths behind the winners makes me question whether they can or can't be used as accurate markers. It's something I've spent a lot of time trying to grapple with when it's much easier to see that an Irish novice hasn't run to form when 15l behind a Mullins horse, but maybe I'm being a bit harsh in saying these guys may not have run to form here? Do you or does anyone have a generic heuristic they use for this as I've tended to focus on the first 2-3 horses when assessing RPRs which would be much more difficult in this situation

For me I base it on how closely it resembles previous form, so if they have proven to be a fairly reliable guide in the past. Lord Snootie had RPRs of 122, 125 and 121 at the end of last season then a 114 to start this year, but would probably have been another low 120 but for making a bad mistake. He has gone up in weight slightly but beaten 8 lengths in a grade 3 handicap, I don't think it is unreasonable to think he has once again ran to something in the mid to low 120s. Santos Blue would be rated partly through Crambo as they have correlative form. Ignoring the jockey claim, SB was getting 4lb from Crambo yet was beat 2 1/4 lengths. with a further 6lb swing he is now beat 6 lengths. Either Crambo has improved enormously on his run, Santos Blue has got decidedly worse or it's a combination of the two. That is where we can use other horses to help guide.

I tend to ignore those beaten a long way as they are less likely to have run their race. Chances are they have been eased down or something has gone wrong for them to be beaten so far. 8 lengths in a three mile race isn't that far really. I would consider all those down to 9th here, beaten 11 3/4 for having run their race just with excuses as to why they haven't performed to their best.

[Outlaw]

For me I base it on how closely it resembles previous form, so if they have proven to be a fairly reliable guide in the past. Lord Snootie had RPRs of 122, 125 and 121 at the end of last season then a 114 to start this year, but would probably have been another low 120 but for making a bad mistake. He has gone up in weight slightly but beaten 8 lengths in a grade 3 handicap, I don't think it is unreasonable to think he has once again ran to something in the mid to low 120s. Santos Blue would be rated partly through Crambo as they have correlative form. Ignoring the jockey claim, SB was getting 4lb from Crambo yet was beat 2 1/4 lengths. with a further 6lb swing he is now beat 6 lengths. Either Crambo has improved enormously on his run, Santos Blue has got decidedly worse or it's a combination of the two. That is where we can use other horses to help guide.

I tend to ignore those beaten a long way as they are less likely to have run their race. Chances are they have been eased down or something has gone wrong for them to be beaten so far. 8 lengths in a three mile race isn't that far really. I would consider all those down to 9th here, beaten 11 3/4 for having run their race just with excuses as to why they haven't performed to their best.

+1, a good logical post. Random but have you been a Lurker until recently or had a different account as only 100 posts and the majority over the last few weeks etc ?

[Runragged]

lovely explanation of rpr's
in this race you've analysed, gowel road carried 1lb more than crambo but finished 2 lengths behind. Now imo crambo should have a higher rpr by 1lb, that doesn't even take into account such an eyecatching finish. is this something you could explain?
With bold endeavour as the "marker" only crambos rpr is correct with adjusted weights of those that finished ahead

I can see your point, but I would say it is a case of Gowel Road being marginally wrong. However, it may well be just a case of ratings that have been rounded up and down. Gowel Road could be 139.6 and Crambo 141.4. Almost 2pts difference but will only show as 1 once rounded up or down. These are pure ratings, so assessment of what happened as opposed to the fact that he seemed to run against a bias in the race and that he was staying on strongly. It's why Timeform use things like a P and 'Squiggle' to signify the bits you can't rate.

[Runragged]

+1, a good logical post. Random but have you been a Lurker until recently or had a different account as only 100 posts and the majority over the last few weeks etc ?

Tried to lurk previously but was never committed enough to get involved. However, a mate of mine says this is the best forum around for discussing racing (Right from what I have seen) and I love to discuss racing so committed myself to posting this season. Was going to just stick with the diary but when it comes to racing then I can't help myself! Can assure you I have never had another username. Just because I am not experienced on the forum doesn't mean I lack experience when it comes to racing and betting

[Outlaw]

Tried to lurk previously but was never committed enough to get involved. However, a mate of mine says this is the best forum around for discussing racing (Right from what I have seen) and I love to discuss racing so committed myself to posting this season. Was going to just stick with the diary but when it comes to racing then I can't help myself! Can assure you I have never had another username. Just because I am not experienced on the forum doesn't mean I lack experience when it comes to racing and betting

Wasn't intended to try to insult/offend you I wouldn't judge anyone on post count etc. Good to have you onboard and look forward to future discussions .

[Runragged]

Wasn't intended to try to insult/offend you I wouldn't judge anyone on post count etc. Good to have you onboard and look forward to future discussions .

No offence taken. I'm here like everyone else, trying to find those value losers with the odd winner thrown in!

[Kevloaf]

No offence taken. I'm here like everyone else, trying to find those value losers with the odd winner thrown in!

Haha - so true

Making a case for a value loser would be the tag line for this place