2024 Stayers Hurdle

[Eggs]

About time we opened a specific thread even though some are calling the favourite, ‘Gaelic Invincible’.

I like Teahupoo myself & there’s a few shouts for some at bigger prices. Good Time Jonny finishes his races like Paisley Park. West Balboa seems popular, in his stable tour Skelton says she’ll start off at 2m 4f but will then ‘step her up’, he then says she could be another Roksana who I think won the Mares.

Plenty to discuss. Current odds (8th Oct):

GW 5-1
IEP 10-1
Vauban 10-1
Teahupoo 12-1
Marie’s Rock 14-1
YWIW 14-1
KD 16-1
Letsbeclearaboutit 20-1
Encanto Bruno 20-1
SDB 20-1
25-1 bar

(Selected others; American Mike, West Balboa & Good Time Jonny 33-1)

[nortonscoin200]

I backed Good Time Johnny in March but couldn’t back him for the Stayers even at 50-1 for several reasons.

Firstly, I think he’s more likely to run in the Pertemps again than go for the Stayers.

He’s only been raised from 142 to 147 as a result of his Festival win and I think Tony will view that as a more feasible target with another claimed on board.

He’s not overly big and I don’t think carrying 11st 10lbs in the Stayers would suit him.

He’s carried 11st 5lbs or more in 11 of his 24 career starts and is yet to win any of them.

He struggled to keep up with the rest of the field in the Pertemps - I don’t think being absolutely last for so long can have been the plan - and I don’t think he’d get away with that in the Stayers. Especially if Flooring Porter is in the field.

It’s easy to say the Pertemps Stayers double has been done before so why not GTJ. The short answer is he is no Sire Du Berlais.

SDB won the Pertemps carrying 11st 10lbs and 11st 12lbs - I can’t see anyway GTJ would have even gone close carrying that sort of weight.

So I’d rule him out of the Stayers but with a claimed on board I’d certainly back him for a repeat win in the Pertemps.

[Lobos]

I can see Sir Gerhard being aimed here. Just doesn't seem to enjoy fences at all. Awaiting the Stable Tour.

[BuckingThe Trend]

He’s carried 11st 5lbs or more in 11 of his 24 career starts and is yet to win any of them.

Great stat. Thanks for sharing. GTJ was one I was looking at to find a decent big price but no longer. West Balboa I think is my one. Gaelic Warrior looks the most likely winner and I think Teahupoo will be bigger/stronger this year too. Outside the front two in the market I like West Balboa and Shoot First.

[FinalFurlong91]

I backed Good Time Johnny in March but couldn’t back him for the Stayers even at 50-1 for several reasons.

Firstly, I think he’s more likely to run in the Pertemps again than go for the Stayers.

He’s only been raised from 142 to 147 as a result of his Festival win and I think Tony will view that as a more feasible target with another claimed on board.

He’s not overly big and I don’t think carrying 11st 10lbs in the Stayers would suit him.

He’s carried 11st 5lbs or more in 11 of his 24 career starts and is yet to win any of them.

He struggled to keep up with the rest of the field in the Pertemps - I don’t think being absolutely last for so long can have been the plan - and I don’t think he’d get away with that in the Stayers. Especially if Flooring Porter is in the field.

It’s easy to say the Pertemps Stayers double has been done before so why not GTJ. The short answer is he is no Sire Du Berlais.

SDB won the Pertemps carrying 11st 10lbs and 11st 12lbs - I can’t see anyway GTJ would have even gone close carrying that sort of weight.

So I’d rule him out of the Stayers but with a claimed on board I’d certainly back him for a repeat win in the Pertemps.

Given he's trained by Tony Martin I'd expect his form figures this season to be a string of 0s then a 3 to qualify for the pertemps

[opatcho]

Interesting comments about Good Time

Im still hopefully he’ll target one or two weak grade 1’s and then be handicapped too much for pertemps.

I really like him for the stayers, but yeah, trainer’s one to try and work on getting handicap down

[nortonscoin200]

He’s carried 11st 5lbs or more in 11 of his 24 career starts and is yet to win any of them.

Great stat. Thanks for sharing. GTJ was one I was looking at to find a decent big price but no longer. West Balboa I think is my one. Gaelic Warrior looks the most likely winner and I think Teahupoo will be bigger/stronger this year too. Outside the front two in the market I like West Balboa and Shoot First.

I don’t fancy West Balboa either - needs too improve by at least a stone to have a sniff.

Is that going to happen aged 8 - I doubt it and her ability to act on the track is still (as the Bobster would say) a complete unknown.

Apologies for the negative vibes. Just an honest opinion, who knows if it’ll be proved right or wrong?

[BuckingThe Trend]

Negative vibes are ok. Often more helpful than positive vibes. I hear you but she has only run 5 times since November 2021. Very lightly run. I reckon she needs to improve 7-10 lbs which is not unrealistic. I'm sticking with West Balboa EW at 33/1. Time will tell. I've been wrong before !!!!! LOL.

[FinalFurlong91]

I'm hoping they will give up on chasing with Ahoy Senor and campaign him over hurdles

not one id back with cash but a free bet may be invested at some point

Same goes for the nice guy, who will probably get injured but surely won't go chasing with his fragility

Don't want to back Gaelic Warrior at all at current prices, looks awfully short for a horse who is a good few lbs better right handed

I have a list in my mind of 4 or 5 I like but no bet yet

[Istabraq]

Don't want to back Gaelic Warrior at all at current prices, looks awfully short for a horse who is a good few lbs better right handed

Are there any 2025 markets available yet ?
I'd be fairly sure he will stay over hurdles for the rest of his career and whilst he's no value for 2024 if there's any 20/1 for the year after that might be OK.
Or these specials win 24 and 25 prices, 40/1 ish might be seen as value...

[Eggs]

Are there any 2025 markets available yet ?
I'd be fairly sure he will stay over hurdles for the rest of his career and whilst he's no value for 2024 if there's any 20/1 for the year after that might be OK.
Or these specials win 24 and 25 prices, 40/1 ish might be seen as value...

…if Stayers is the intended target, I’m fairly sure we’ll see win the ‘next two’ offers for GW but I’d be amazed if the odds were anywhere near what you suggest.

[Istabraq]

…if Stayers is the intended target, I’m fairly sure we’ll see win the ‘next two’ offers for GW but I’d be amazed if the odds were anywhere near what you suggest.

Really ?
I don't know how 5/1 for this season equates to the same race 18 months from now but surely 20/1 is fair ?

[Eggs]

Really ?
I don't know how 5/1 for this season equates to the same race 18 months from now but surely 20/1 is fair ?

….fingers crossed, but the firms don’t usually do ‘fair’.

[Lobos]

Eggs is right. No way they'd offer anything like 20's. Be lucky to get 10's.

[FinalFurlong91]

He's 5/1 now

If he won he'd likely be 2/1 for 2025 post race

So 17/1

Be lucky to get 12s with the bookies to win both years