October ‘23 Yankee

[Quevega]

Hinted that El Fabiolo could run in Tingle Creek so an early season match up with Bon Jovi could potentially be on the cards. Also the King George may be where Allaho goes if his comeback race at Clonmel goes to plan.

I’ll believe both when I see it
he also mentioned hilly way for el fab
And I’d not be worried about allaho at kempton

[Lobos]

I’ll believe both when I see it
he also mentioned hilly way for el fab
And I’d not be worried about allaho at kempton

Yep. Doubt either will happen.

[Eggs]

….getting to the pointy end of the month and we need nominations for MoM to consider, especially given the stable tours information.

With GW going over fences, Theleme seems popular at 12-1 for the Stayers or perhaps Teahupoo with a confirmed target might be less risky.

[Exar Essay]

Willie put up Majborough as his dark one in the irishracing.com stable tour. Should we include him for the Triumph at 20/1?

I also like Theleme as suggested by eggs. Some doubt his participation, but the owners have suggested it is the plan, and it can be no more risky surely than including a Facile Vega, or Fact to File who could go to a couple of races. At least we know this chap will be aimed here if coming over.

[Irish Rugby]

Marie's Rock

Stage Star

Theme

I'm sold on the arguments made here.

[somer1]

One at a price and looks like coming back over hurdles with a week looking Stayers in mind hows about Thyme Hill?

[Kautostar]

One at a price and looks like coming back over hurdles with a week looking Stayers in mind hows about Thyme Hill?

No no and hell no that ship sailed. Like the idea of Theleme though

[Kautostar]

I’ve asked a few times re if there’s a theme this month, I presume it’s just an anything go’s month at this stage?

[Eggs]

I’ve asked a few times re if there’s a theme this month, I presume it’s just an anything go’s month at this stage?

…as far as I can see, there’s been no definite steer on a theme.

I do think the Stable Tours should help, even if it opens up races like the Stayers. Nicholls was quite clear that Stage Star is a different horse fresh and will be aimed at PPGC and Ryanair.

[Lobos]

…as far as I can see, there’s been no definite steer on a theme.

I do think the Stable Tours should help, even if it opens up races like the Stayers. Nicholls was quite clear that Stage Star is a different horse fresh and will be aimed at PPGC and Ryanair.

Agree Eggs. Stage Star should maybe feature. If he wins PP GC off top weight then he'd go much shorter for the Ryanair and would likely go straight there.

[Odin]

I can't speak for the theleme form, happy to have others who know better do that. My only thought is - do we really want another stayers hurdle selection who's target isn't guaranteed? We've already had that three times with Gaelic so would it be better to have a horse with a more solid target?

[FinalFurlong91]

Agree Eggs. Stage Star should maybe feature. If he wins PP GC off top weight then he'd go much shorter for the Ryanair and would likely go straight there.

That turner's was shocking though wasn't it?

[Eggs]

I can't speak for the theleme form, happy to have others who know better do that. My only thought is - do we really want another stayers hurdle selection who's target isn't guaranteed? We've already had that three times with Gaelic so would it be better to have a horse with a more solid target?

…..it’s a fair point, lots of the Yankees have already been hit this year. Saying that, I suppose that’s the peril of ante-post. At least the stable tours should give us a more informed choice.

[Odin]

Saying that, I suppose that’s the peril of ante-post.

Any horse can miss a race definitely - but there are things we can do to mitigate the risk. Good Land for example was unavoidable, any horse can get injured. Gaelic Warrior on the other hand was avoidable. I completely understand the reasons for including him, and I'm not criticising them through the summer months when we have less to work on even though I wouldn't have as evidenced by my posts then. However, we are now in a position as you say, where we know more about the different horse's targets so my argument, most specifically about Theleme but arguably about others as well (e.g. novices but we tend to accept the risk more there) is that I personally would rather avoid a race completely if the general feeling is Theleme turns up, he wins because we don't really have any strong indication that the Stayers is the plan and so we aren't mitigating the risk of the target imo.

There's loads of other options though...

I've been against Dinoblue for the Mares Chase all summer and probably still am, but with 365 holding out 10/1 on the back of the Impervious news and with Mullins specifically mentioning the Mares Chase route in the stable tours, theres an argument she's a better bet

All of the triumph runners are most likely to go there - Majborough has been mentioned, again I wouldn't have a clue on the best one - none of us would, but they are likely to go in that direction so they are options.

Saint Roi has been considered recently, we won't get 50/1 now, but he's still an ew backable price for the Ryanair.

Ashroe Diamond was supposed to go chasing but stays hurdling now, is she a good price for the Mares Hurdle at 7/1 with confirmed target?

Salvador Ziggy has had the NH Chase namechecked (alongside the Ultima but surely mark too high for that) and has drifted to a very backable 16/1 after a single disappointment so could he be an option?

Others will be mentioned as well, as I said, I am not debating any of Theleme's form because I can't and I'm happy to accept that he would piss all over any other Stayers Hurdle contender. The simple question is will he get there and if we don't know, should we leave the race alone or pick a different horse in it?

[Kautostar]

Will any horses get there that’s the risk of ante post without nrnb. Dinoblue could flop all season and end up back in hcap company. Any of the triumph horses could lose a couple and end up in the boodles. There’s very little that cut and dried. We were all lead up the garden path with Gaelic warrior even rich ricci and joe chambers were saying hurdling the day that Mullins dropped the bombshell.
You have to go with the small amount of info you’ve got and take a few chances, some will pay off and some won’t that’s ante post betting.