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I'm in the no bet and just enjoy it unfold camp for todays race too, I can't have Gerri Colombe at odds on, only takes 1 of the 3 been there and done it types in opposition to be on a going day, don't feel like we've seen enough *yet* to be getting involved at 8/11 in a Grade 1. Never understood the criticism of the ride in the BANC, horse has never made all in previous races over obstacles, he tracked the leaders as usual and started needing the odd nudge from about 6 out when they pace started to up a little, stayed on strongly at the end when it finally gave way. He could and should be progressive but you'd like to think he'll need to be. The question mark is which of the 3 will turn up bang at it, Envoi Allen is the obvious place to start but you never know which one you're going to get these days. #onthefence
I'm in the no bet and just enjoy it unfold camp for todays race too, I can't have Gerri Colombe at odds on, only takes 1 of the 3 been there and done it types in opposition to be on a going day, don't feel like we've seen enough *yet* to be getting involved at 8/11 in a Grade 1. Never understood the criticism of the ride in the BANC, horse has never made all in previous races over obstacles, he tracked the leaders as usual and started needing the odd nudge from about 6 out when they pace started to up a little, stayed on strongly at the end when it finally gave way. He could and should be progressive but you'd like to think he'll need to be. The question mark is which of the 3 will turn up bang at it, Envoi Allen is the obvious place to start but you never know which one you're going to get these days. #onthefence
That's the type of logic I should learn from, as there is no need for a bet at all.
I think it's probably the course form of Envoi and obviously his price that swayed me in the end.
But like Carnage and yourself have said, it's a tricky one to have too strong an opinion about, even though the market has got a strong opinion. That's why it's more than likely a layers race, unless you're a massive fan or believer in the Fav.
That's the type of logic I should learn from, as there is no need for a bet at all.
I think it's probably the course form of Envoi and obviously his price that swayed me in the end.
But like Carnage and yourself have said, it's a tricky one to have too strong an opinion about, even though the market has got a strong opinion. That's why it's more than likely a layers race, unless you're a massive fan or believer in the Fav.
It's kind of a shame there's only 4 runners as it could be a brilliant place lay race otherwise. No chance Gerri is a 1.35ish shot (a guess at what his place odds would be with 5 runners) to get placed against those 3 like the market currently suggests. A lovely sit out race for me as well - just gonna enjoy it
I forget some people still bet on every race that's on TV
I've found that being so ante post focused (and therefore getting horses that significantly shorten) means getting a slight edge isn't as appealing anymore. I'd need something to be clearly the wrong price to have a bet.
The only bet I'd have on any of the 4 today would be for the Gold Cup, as I'm not good enough to make the money from the race today for all the reasons mentioned.
Just seen he's 1.67 so laid him - not for much, just for fun, hopefully it's some of Dineen's money.
Good test for him today and he may be up to it, but far too short against those IMO.
Just seen he's 1.67 so laid him - not for much, just for fun, hopefully it's some of Dineen's money.
Good test for him today and he may be up to it, but far too short against those IMO.
It's hard go tell, could be a mixture of things, could be part time punters latching onto him with Gordy cleaning up yesterday, could be he's a talking horse and 2nd fav for Gold cup, could be a tipster or anything.
What it's worth I like him and have backed him for the GC, but very short today, I think he will come on for the run, should win though imo! Just not worth backing at the prices.
It's hard go tell, could be a mixture of things, could be part time punters latching onto him with Gordy cleaning up yesterday, could be he's a talking horse and 2nd fav for Gold cup, could be a tipster or anything.
What it's worth I like him and have backed him for the GC, but very short today, I think he will come on for the run, should win though imo! Just not worth backing at the prices.
Yeah, I could easily see him winning also, and like him for the Gold cup.
If he does lose today and goes out to 10-1 or worse then I'll likely back him, depending on his run and the actual price of course.
I think the stats for second season chasers and hurdlers coming back first time up the following season against open company in grade 1's is not great, but the odds always expect the opposite.
If Galopin des champs was in the race today instead of Gerri I reckon he'd be about 4/11.
He went off that price at Punchestown in a similar type of race.
edit - decided to have a saver on the win today market at 9-1, makes sense really. If he does lose then todays bets pay off and I can consider him again before his next run.
Last edited by Quevega; 11 November 2023, 08:13 AM.
Why is last years savills winner and gold cup 3rd 8.8?
Best horse in the race is outsider of the field
I'm dutching envoi and conflated against gerri
These horses are a good bit better than bronn, the real whacker and balco coastal and have race fitness
I was thinking the same in an attempt to get off the fence.....was starting to get a tad uncomfortable !!
So have decided a small wager on Conflated......after all that
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