2024 Gold Cup

[Quevega]

Could the new course help bring in Gerri Colombe's stamina, he was really motoring up the hill and those extra 21/2 furlongs could help to play to his strengths.

Definitely should help him.

[opatcho]

Not convinced gerri handled the undulating track last season

Think haydock would be much more his bag

Flat track, soft ground

this is what I love about this forum, other angles and thoughts - this is something I haven’t looked into. Will re-watch his races and see if there’s anything to go off but decent shout

[Kautostar]

Could the new course help bring in Gerri Colombe's stamina, he was really motoring up the hill and those extra 21/2 furlongs could help to play to his strengths.

It will but not appearing to have the tactical pace could leave him too much to do again. Can see him staying on for a place

[archie]

I absolutely acknowledge that many are building books and that, this far out and with all the pitfalls that are there for these fragile creatures, the GDC price isn't attractive as a single bet. However, if they all get there fit and well, all prices will take at least a 50% haircut as part of the general book adjustment and, in my opinion as you very well know, every other horse is playing for second.

Recognise it. Do the El Fabiolo double and move on.

[Exar Essay]

I absolutely acknowledge that many are building books and that, this far out and with all the pitfalls that are there for these fragile creatures, the GDC price isn't attractive as a single bet. However, if they all get there fit and well, all prices will take at least a 50% haircut as part of the general book adjustment and, in my opinion as you very well know, every other horse is playing for second.

Recognise it. Do the El Fabiolo double and move on.

Can I clarify, is this still with free bets only or are you now advocating a cash spend?

[Lobos]

Can I clarify, is this still with free bets only or are you now advocating a cash spend?

Nah, all in balls and all

[archie]

Can I clarify, is this still with free bets only or are you now advocating a cash spend?

My bets are restricted to past winnings, free bets, b365 bet credits and returns from restricted free bets, eg football bet builders. I have a strong dislike of "bet ?5 and get a 'free' bet". They are absolutely not free bets and I'd only use the offer if I wanted the original bet anyway.

Essentially, I have a baseline balance for each account that I won't go below for ante-post. After Cheltenham I withdrew winnings down to that level and I occasionally have a big race bet. If it loses I have a new baseline. I bet for fun and have zero interest in building a book.

Everyone should feel comfortable betting in the way that suits them best, both financially and temperamentally. I sometimes get the feeling that the fear of missing out persuades some younger members to go against that. We old farts have all gone through that stage and mostly survived intact but there are occasional casualties and I'd hate to think that I made any contribution to that.

[jono]

Agree with plenty of the Gerri Colombe chat.
If it were my say i'd 100% start him off relatively low key.
The Many Clouds at Aintree at the start of December would be a perfect season opener, avoiding the big players in the division.

I think Willie may well send Galopin des Champs to the Tramore New Years day race, even though it does deviate from last years tried and tested route, just because the John Durkan is moved forward this season. But if he doesn't that would be another good race for Gerri.

Then come over to Newbury for the Denman Chase at the start of February.

Basically stay a little low key through the winter.
Even if it means coming across to England.
Which he did both last season.

And then show what he's got in the big one in March.
You have to be disappointed with his Brown Advisory run, even though we're talking about a horse who only finished second by a short head.
I've no doubt the trip and new course will suit better. Which is the hope.
As the concern is, based on last seasons evidence, how he'll travel through the race and whether he'll be out of it before they turn for home.

[opatcho]

I took another look at that RSA and Gerri wasn’t as clean as I remembered over the fences - he and that BANC reminds me of when champ wo, champ wasn’t great at all in that race and he won because the front two killed each other off

hmmm

[Captain Chris]

Agree with plenty of the Gerri Colombe chat.
If it were my say i'd 100% start him off relatively low key.
The Many Clouds at Aintree at the start of December would be a perfect season opener, avoiding the big players in the division.

I think Willie may well send Galopin des Champs to the Tramore New Years day race, even though it does deviate from last years tried and tested route, just because the John Durkan is moved forward this season. But if he doesn't that would be another good race for Gerri.

Then come over to Newbury for the Denman Chase at the start of February.

Basically stay a little low key through the winter.
Even if it means coming across to England.
Which he did both last season.

And then show what he's got in the big one in March.
You have to be disappointed with his Brown Advisory run, even though we're talking about a horse who only finished second by a short head.
I've no doubt the trip and new course will suit better. Which is the hope.
As the concern is, based on last seasons evidence, how he'll travel through the race and whether he'll be out of it before they turn for home.

I can understand this, but it wouldn't be my preference. I'd want to see him tested in 1 or even 2 proper grade 1 races before Cheltenham. Down Royal or the Betfair Chase to start, then could go to the Savills at Christmas before a prep like the Denman chase would be fine. I fear that running in weak races won't get the necessary experience into him of going at "grade 1 pace"

[jono]

I can understand this, but it wouldn't be my preference. I'd want to see him tested in 1 or even 2 proper grade 1 races before Cheltenham. Down Royal or the Betfair Chase to start, then could go to the Savills at Christmas before a prep like the Denman chase would be fine. I fear that running in weak races won't get the necessary experience into him of going at "grade 1 pace"

Very fair point. And one that you could certainly argue was his archiles heal last season at the festival. And one that will be another level this coming season.
Going into the Brown Advisory, the counter argument I had against his 'easier' campaigning - bypassing what you could consider would be the biggest tests, was that him tackling shorter trips would allow him to stick with the pace and lie up with the rest when running over 3 miles.
But that never materialised. He did get outpaced. For one reason or another.

For me, most of the Gold Cup trials don't particularly play out like the Gold Cup itself, and that relentless pace that doesn't seem to let up.
So I feel like he's either going to be able to cope come the day, or not. As it'll be another level, to what, certainly in the 2 big Irish 3 miles races are fairly slowly run.

I'd definitely make use of the Aintree race. It was his most complete performance there to finish the season.
Probably a moot point though. As talk of the Betfair Chase show they are likely aiming higher.

[Odin]

I thought GC just had an off day in the RSA.

In a 9 race career, he's won 8 races and finished 2nd. In that time he's only ran in one race where the track wasn't described as undulating (6 runs across various tracks) or testing (2x Fairyhouse runs) by Racing Post, so I'd say he clearly handles undulations. Most of his runs have been right handed though, which could have been a factor; similarly, the quieter build up could have been a factor as has been alluded to as a strength and weakness above. Definitely think I'd prefer him to run in a stronger race pre-festival, ideally at Xmas in the Savills. I don't think he wants to be going DRF on potentially fast ground.

Then again similar thoughts apply to GMG regarding DRF. It'll be really interesting to see how he develops this year. I had a poke on him ew at 66s after yesterdays run before I realised he got 5lb from Easy Game, but it was a really solid run on his second ever chase start and I'd be hopeful they want to test him out at Down Royal next time. Alternatively, he could be a very early contender for the Irish National...

[Quevega]

The biggest issue with Gerri Colombe is his current price.
Is he really the second best staying chaser in training ??? - because the Gold cup market says he is.

Unexceptional second season chasers that have won the Gold cup in recent years were much bigger prices at this stage and throughout the season.
Horses like Minella Indo and Al Boum Photo were worth taking a punt on - due to the second season chaser's aged 7 and 8 stats being so good.

The season will decide how much he can improve.
He is the type that may well turn up and run well in the Gold cup 2024. But is unbackable at the moment. IMO.
A bit like Envoi Allen, who was a very poor price, and was odds on to lose a couple of times on route to defending his Ryanair title.

Touching on archies comments above.

Some horses are worth waiting on, and pouncing when the price is right, it's a long season with lots of ups and downs, and if you do hold off some bets and it goes wrong and they improve and shorten dramatically then take it on the chin. If you think a horse looks too short and rationalise why you think this way then it'll likely stop you making a sheepish bet because you think you may miss out. The vast majority of bets you do or don't make - LOSE anyway.

I had a few chats with archie last season as I felt the odds for GDC were fairly short (7-2 or lower) most of the season and the Gold cup field looked potentially deeper than some renewals. IMO.
It turns out that you could get 11/4, 9/4 during the week and near the day.
However, I thought he may have been available slightly bigger and ultimately archie was right in his confidence in the horses ability, and for taking the price. I didn't doubt his ability, I just felt the price may hold or get bigger than the price he was most of the year and I couldn't see a path for him shortening dramatically to evens or shorter for example. I wasn't far off.

In strong markets like the Gold cup and Champion hurdle, it is worth looking at the exchange and he was a solid 9/4 for weeks leading up to the race.
It's probably easier to stake money if you believe in the horses ability so much when the risks are much lower of not losing your stake 9/4 NRNB vs 7-2 antepost.

As an example, this season Constitution Hill has settled at 1/2 on the exchange, and barring a number of injuries in Ireland I cannot see this changing a great deal. Unless he gets beat in the UK, which seems unlikely, but possible. And more than one bookmaker offered him at even money to decent stakes in the end - last season.

This season though, I think Galopin des Champs price now is fair, as opposition looks thin on the ground and he's beat most of them already, so I'd anticipate the likely outcome is him being shorter come the day. And potentially odds on. Which is why bravemansgame at 12-1 is such a good price e/w. If GDC does go off odds on then he's likely shat all over the Irish challengers.
The only fly in this ointment is Gerri Colombe or Fastorslow proving to be better animals, and this is unlikely, but possible.

[Runragged]

When it comes to Gold Cup horses I think tactical speed is often disregarded. You have to be in the right place at the right time and you need the speed to get there. You have to go back to Lord Windemere in 2014 to find the last horse to make up more than a couple of lengths jumping the 2nd last. Between 2015-2021 the eventual winner led over the 2nd last, whilst A Plus Tard made up approximately 2 lengths on Minella Indo in 2022 and Galopin Des Champs 1/2 length. Generally you can't get outpaced in a Gold Cup and still win it, you need to be in contention unless you have that tactical speed like GDC who can make up ground quickly to get amongst the leaders turning in. I would have to be worried whether Gerri would have the necessary speed to remain in contention when it matters. That's not to say another summer under his belt won't see him improve further. Needs to show much more tactical speed before I can consider his price any value however.

[Kautostar]

When it comes to Gold Cup horses I think tactical speed is often disregarded. You have to be in the right place at the right time and you need the speed to get there. You have to go back to Lord Windemere in 2014 to find the last horse to make up more than a couple of lengths jumping the 2nd last. Between 2015-2021 the eventual winner led over the 2nd last, whilst A Plus Tard made up approximately 2 lengths on Minella Indo in 2022 and Galopin Des Champs 1/2 length. Generally you can't get outpaced in a Gold Cup and still win it, you need to be in contention unless you have that tactical speed like GDC who can make up ground quickly to get amongst the leaders turning in. I would have to be worried whether Gerri would have the necessary speed to remain in contention when it matters. That's not to say another summer under his belt won't see him improve further. Needs to show much more tactical speed before I can consider his price any value however.

I’d be very interested in him on heavy ground, looks a dour stayer to me but I don’t think he’d have the tactical pace on anything better.