2024 Gold Cup

[Istabraq]

I struggle with the whole find an
alternative to Galopin des Champs process, book makers absolutely need to, you can’t have have just 1 horse in a race, but Gerri Colombe second fav just confirms how far I have the fav ahead.

You can take RPRs in multiple ways but it took
GC five runs as a novice to get a 166 quote, that is a figure GDC exceeded in all of his novice chases bar debut.
His final novice race (4th chase run) he achieved a 177 quote from the good people at bible HQ, so GC enters his open season 11lb inferior to GDC as a novice on RPR ratings, I can’t help thinking people are clutching to the straw that he peaked at Cheltenham and is now regressing following defeat after his Gold Cup win.

I will look for alternatives in the race but only if the fav has a setback…

[nortonscoin200]

I struggle with the whole find an
alternative to Galopin des Champs process, book makers absolutely need to, you can’t have have just 1 horse in a race, but Gerri Colombe second fav just confirms how far I have the fav ahead.

You can take RPRs in multiple ways but it took
GC five runs as a novice to get a 166 quote, that is a figure GDC exceeded in all of his novice chases bar debut.
His final novice race (4th chase run) he achieved a 177 quote from the good people at bible HQ, so GC enters his open season 11lb inferior to GDC as a novice on RPR ratings, I can’t help thinking people are clutching to the straw that he peaked at Cheltenham and is now regressing following defeat after his Gold Cup win.

I will look for alternatives in the race but only if the fav has a setback…

Reckon it’s a race to find a big price each way alternative nearer the time. Same with the Champion Hurdle.

[Istabraq]

Reckon it’s a race to find a big price each way alternative nearer the time. Same with the Champion Hurdle.

You need to find a 25/1 shot that places to return the same as a same total stake win bet on the fav at 2/1.
Doable obviously, but arguably with more risk….

[HesTheOne]

You need to find a 25/1 shot that places to return the same as a same total stake win bet on the fav at 2/1.
Doable obviously, but arguably with more risk….

Arguably something that is easier done on the day too with all the extra places jazz and morning drifters

[Istabraq]

Arguably something that is easier done on the day too with all the extra places jazz and morning drifters

Definitely, if you have all the right accs you can get five places in a 12 runner Gold Cup...

[nortonscoin200]

You need to find a 25/1 shot that places to return the same as a same total stake win bet on the fav at 2/1.
Doable obviously, but arguably with more risk….

Yeah, fair point Istabraq, put like that it doesn’t sound much of a deal going the each way outsider route.

But it does give you the bonus option of the rag actually winning.

Last season I was eyeing up such a bet on Minella Indo (hoping to get 50-1 from memory) but he went and ruined the script by winning on his seasonal debut at Tramore on New Year’s Day.

The other I was hoping to get onside at a big price was Ahoy Senor - but he hadn’t read the script either and won the Cotswold Chase on trials day.

Ive got him in mind again - still travelling nicely in front when he came down in March - but again he needs to drift further before I’d step in.

The plan did work better in the Champion Hurdle though - backed Zanahiyr at around 90-1 each way in early March.

Reckon there will be similar opportunities this time round if Constitution Hill gets there in one piece.

[Istabraq]

Yeah, fair point Istabraq, put like that it doesn’t sound much of a deal going the each way outsider route.

But it does give you the bonus option of the rag actually winning.

Last season I was eyeing up such a bet on Minella Indo (hoping to get 50-1 from memory) but he went and ruined the script by winning on his seasonal debut at Tramore on New Year’s Day.

The other I was hoping to get onside at a big price was Ahoy Senor - but he hadn’t read the script either and won the Cotswold Chase on trials day.

Ive got him in mind again - still travelling nicely in front when he came down in March - but again he needs to drift further before I’d step in.

The plan did work better in the Champion Hurdle though - backed Zanahiyr at around 90-1 each way in early March.

Reckon there will be similar opportunities this time round if Constitution Hill gets there in one piece.

Yep, sometimes the smart play is no bet until the day, and unless you have a strong view the favs aren't as good as everyone thinks or knowledge there's been a setback then finding an alternative to Galopin des Champs or Constitution Hill is best left until race day.
I had a strong view last year Galopin was beatable and was backing Conflated and Stattler each way ante post, I was lucky to have snared the 66s Conflated in April but was playing the pair of them 12/1/14/1 each way ante post terms in Dec/Jan/Feb, Conflated placed at 22s and Stattler PU at 16s and of course I was only ever getting 3 places...

[archie]

Slightly surprised that there's been no mention of The Real Whacker. Given his course form and his success at the Festival, it seems odd to me that he's double (and in one case, triple) the price of a horse that he beat in March.
I appreciate that some have doubts about his ability to stay the extra quarter mile but he's reported to have summered well and the ground next March has every chance of being quicker than it was this year.
If I was building a book, I'd want him in there at 20/1.

[Spectre]

I would much prefer him for the Ryanair Archie. I'm in the camp where I have him as a doubtful stayer at the top level. I do think it's a wide open Ryanair, and that race would suit him down to the ground. I'd be fairly sure that Patrick Neville will give him a Gold Cup campaign though.

[Kautostar]

Slightly surprised that there's been no mention of The Real Whacker. Given his course form and his success at the Festival, it seems odd to me that he's double (and in one case, triple) the price of a horse that he beat in March.
I appreciate that some have doubts about his ability to stay the extra quarter mile but he's reported to have summered well and the ground next March has every chance of being quicker than it was this year.
If I was building a book, I'd want him in there at 20/1.

I think he’ll get swallowed up in the final few furlongs, Gerri almost got to him despite not travelling throughout the race. I’d be very interested in him should he drop in trip in the Ryanair and try to do an Allaho from the front.

[Rooster Booster]

Slightly surprised that there's been no mention of The Real Whacker. Given his course form and his success at the Festival, it seems odd to me that he's double (and in one case, triple) the price of a horse that he beat in March.
I appreciate that some have doubts about his ability to stay the extra quarter mile but he's reported to have summered well and the ground next March has every chance of being quicker than it was this year.
If I was building a book, I'd want him in there at 20/1.

Fastorslow is octuple the price of a horse he beat in April

[Runragged]

Slightly surprised that there's been no mention of The Real Whacker. Given his course form and his success at the Festival, it seems odd to me that he's double (and in one case, triple) the price of a horse that he beat in March.
I appreciate that some have doubts about his ability to stay the extra quarter mile but he's reported to have summered well and the ground next March has every chance of being quicker than it was this year.
If I was building a book, I'd want him in there at 20/1.

I would agree with you given his price, the fact that he is lightly raced and has improved for every run over a fence. Has the right running style, likely out near the front whilst also jumps well. Second season chasers have a good record in the race whilst they have also suggested the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury as his initial season target, which doesn't sound like connections have stamina concerns. Obviously there is the initial worry, but with another summer under his belt and a season of working on stamina then he could be an early value play in the race. If he was to go the Coral Gold Cup route and win or place then his price should shorten. Always going to have that 'IF' though when betting Ante Post!

[Quevega]

The Real Whacker might get done for class, but class don't always win the Gold cup.
His heart is as big as most, and to my eye he looked like he just got idle/lonely in his finishes, almost as though once the jockey's urges "changed" it made him think about it and idle/think a bit.
I doubt stamina is his issue, more that he might meet his match/level.

[Quevega]

I think he’ll get swallowed up in the final few furlongs, Gerri almost got to him despite not travelling throughout the race. I’d be very interested in him should he drop in trip in the Ryanair and try to do an Allaho from the front.

The Champ RSA springs to mind.
The one that stayed on past the front pace setters (who went too quick IMO) turned out to be one paced and mostly shite.
The other 2 went in different directions.
He'd have to be relentless like the novice that won and the Tizzard horse. To win a gold cup.

[Benjy23]

Aye, he's also battled Bronn from a fair way out as well from memory. I'm not convinced the trip will be an issue. And I'm not convinced Geri is entitled to finish ahead of him over any trip.

He's just not that fashionable is he. Same could be said before this year's festival. And in the reaction from many immediately after as well