2024 Gold Cup

[Lobos]

https://x.com/sevenbarrows/status/17...488110729?s=20

shishkin runs in the rehearsal chase

Be hilarious if it's snowed off. Henderson will pull his hair out.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Be hilarious if it's snowed off. Henderson will pull his hair out.

That would mean we would miss seeing the best horse currently in training.
You got a strange sense of humour.

[Brooksie]

That would mean we would miss seeing the best horse currently in training.
You got a strange sense of humour.

Jet Powered is good, but he's not that good

[Carnage at Taunton]

Jet Powered is good, but he's not that good

Hahaha, that’s a better sense of humour!!

[Lobos]

That would mean we would miss seeing the best horse currently in training.
You got a strange sense of humour.

There are other races for Love Envoi

[Carnage at Taunton]

There are other races for Love Envoi

Hahaha…..that’s better

[Lobos]

Think you've got me wrong Carnage. Constitution Hill is the best Hurdler I've ever witnessed and I go back a bit. He makes the hairs stand up every time he runs. Just wish we could see him as much as the elite Hurdlers back in the 80''s who it seemed used to run every two weeks. Got to enjoy them while we can these days.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Think you've got me wrong Carnage. Constitution Hill is the best Hurdler I've ever witnessed and I go back a bit. He makes the hairs stand up every time he runs. Just wish we could see him as much as the elite Hurdlers back in the 80''s who it seemed used to run every two weeks. Got to enjoy them while we can these days.

It’s all changed Lobos.
The days of Night Nurse, Birds Nest etc are long gone unfortunately.
Bit more wrapping up in cotton wool these days.
Yep,got to enjoy them whilst you can for sure .

[Spectre]

I've been mulling over what I think about Galopin and Fastorslow, and I think I feel differently than most on this thread.

I think Fastorslow is a very good horse, and he has undoubtedly improved massively since Brassil took the handbrake off, but the more I think about it I'm unsure just how much of a prime Gold Cup contender he is. For a start, I actually think he's a quick horse and not an out and out stayer. The Ultima was run on the old course which is pretty sharp and doesn't take getting too much getting home on. It really favours horses that jump and get away from there fences well. Punchestown is very similar, and the Punchestown Gold Cup wasn't won in a quick time which usually favours the quickest horse. The Durkan was also over a trip notionally too short, was also slowly run and he was the fastest horse at the finish. Essentially he has won those races by using his speed and by jumping well throughout. That of course doesn't mean he won't stay the Gold Cup trip, but the nature of his wins so far aren't comparable with what he'll face in the Gold Cup. He also runs quite freely, and that's never a good thing in a Gold Cup.

I also want to add some context to Fastorslow's two victories over Galopin des Champs. At Punchestown Galopin had arrived having four tough races including his Gold Cup, whereas Fastorslow had only been actually trying once in the season, and that was in the Ultima, which by definition is not going to be as tough as a Gold Cup. All the Ultima seemed to do was bring Fastorslow on, whereas Galopin was probably over the top.

Fast forward to Punchestown at the weekend. Willie's big names when they've come out have all looked like they needed the race. Galopin included, who looked like he hadn't seen a fence since April. Fastorslow however looked fit, sharp, and ready to go. He still only beat Galopin less than two lengths after Galoipin had jumped like a pig for the first half of the race.b I suspect Galopin will come on a ton for that race, and I expect him to hose up looking like himself at Christmas.

Now to Galopin, and whether those two races are a sign he's finished. I definitely don't think so. I think there are legitimate reasons for both defeats. Punchestown in April over the top, against a fresh horse just peaking for the season, and Punchestown November not fully wound up and not schooled against a horse (or horses) that were more forward. I feel that he will improve past Fastorslow, and will beat him next time they meet, and if that's the Gold Cup trip on the new course I'd be completely confident he would. I'm also a great believer in not judging any horse on its seasonal debut, and to make that call after a second run after they've come on for it.

I actually love the fact that the markets don't do the same though, which makes it the perfect time to back your judgement and snaffle better prices. I think that currently the right three horses are at the top of the Gold Cup market, but I regard 3/1 about Galopin a gift, and he's gone in a few more multiples as a consequence. I think 5/1 about Fastorslow is a horrible price though and would be touching him if I hadn't already got him onside earlier for my book.

If I had to sum it up I don't think Fastorslow will stay in a true run Gold Cup. In actual fact I think something like Corach Rambler is more likely to place than Fastorslow is. I think Gerri Colombe will be outpaced and do all his best work late running on into a place. And Galopin who has the perfect blend of stamina and speed will win the race for a second time.

[Quevega]

I've been mulling over what I think about Galopin and Fastorslow, and I think I feel differently than most on this thread.

I think Fastorslow is a very good horse, and he has undoubtedly improved massively since Brassil took the handbrake off, but the more I think about it I'm unsure just how much of a prime Gold Cup contender he is. For a start, I actually think he's a quick horse and not an out and out stayer. The Ultima was run on the old course which is pretty sharp and doesn't take getting too much getting home on. It really favours horses that jump and get away from there fences well. Punchestown is very similar, and the Punchestown Gold Cup wasn't won in a quick time which usually favours the quickest horse. The Durkan was also over a trip notionally too short, was also slowly run and he was the fastest horse at the finish. Essentially he has won those races by using his speed and by jumping well throughout. That of course doesn't mean he won't stay the Gold Cup trip, but the nature of his wins so far aren't comparable with what he'll face in the Gold Cup. He also runs quite freely, and that's never a good thing in a Gold Cup.

I also want to add some context to Fastorslow's two victories over Galopin des Champs. At Punchestown Galopin had arrived having four tough races including his Gold Cup, whereas Fastorslow had only been actually trying once in the season, and that was in the Ultima, which by definition is not going to be as tough as a Gold Cup. All the Ultima seemed to do was bring Fastorslow on, whereas Galopin was probably over the top.

Fast forward to Punchestown at the weekend. Willie's big names when they've come out have all looked like they needed the race. Galopin included, who looked like he hadn't seen a fence since April. Fastorslow however looked fit, sharp, and ready to go. He still only beat Galopin less than two lengths after Galoipin had jumped like a pig for the first half of the race.b I suspect Galopin will come on a ton for that race, and I expect him to hose up looking like himself at Christmas.

Now to Galopin, and whether those two races are a sign he's finished. I definitely don't think so. I think there are legitimate reasons for both defeats. Punchestown in April over the top, against a fresh horse just peaking for the season, and Punchestown November not fully wound up and not schooled against a horse (or horses) that were more forward. I feel that he will improve past Fastorslow, and will beat him next time they meet, and if that's the Gold Cup trip on the new course I'd be completely confident he would. I'm also a great believer in not judging any horse on its seasonal debut, and to make that call after a second run after they've come on for it.

I actually love the fact that the markets don't do the same though, which makes it the perfect time to back your judgement and snaffle better prices. I think that currently the right three horses are at the top of the Gold Cup market, but I regard 3/1 about Galopin a gift, and he's gone in a few more multiples as a consequence. I think 5/1 about Fastorslow is a horrible price though and would be touching him if I hadn't already got him onside earlier for my book.

If I had to sum it up I don't think Fastorslow will stay in a true run Gold Cup. In actual fact I think something like Corach Rambler is more likely to place than Fastorslow is. I think Gerri Colombe will be outpaced and do all his best work late running on into a place. And Galopin who has the perfect blend of stamina and speed will win the race for a second time.

I think a lot more would agree than disagree, especially as to what is value right now, all things considered.

If today was the race, and you had to choose one bet at the prices then GDC would be the percentage call for most I reckon. Not sure it's a Gift though as this will depend if any meet before March and how many stay sound. In short, I'd not be as convinced as I was prior to the Durkan that he'll go off at shorter than 2-1. So whilst 3-1 now is value IMO, I'd personally not be thinking it's overly generous antepost wise.


I kind of disagree with some of the thoughts around Fastorslow's form though, as a lot of this is guesswork around respective schooling and fitness.
I'd have said it's a more common opinion that Fastorslow is as likely to be inconvenienced in a sprint as GDC. He actually looked outpaced in the Punchestown (Gold cup) before staying on.

The race the other day was just another nudge that the Punchestown race was more believable than not.

The risk with backing Galopin is that he has lost a little bit of heart. But I don't subscribe to that personally, I just think it's possible.

And without any real evidence I kind of suspect your theory regarding Fastorslow in the Gold cup could be right.

[Runragged]

I've been mulling over what I think about Galopin and Fastorslow, and I think I feel differently than most on this thread.

I think Fastorslow is a very good horse, and he has undoubtedly improved massively since Brassil took the handbrake off, but the more I think about it I'm unsure just how much of a prime Gold Cup contender he is. For a start, I actually think he's a quick horse and not an out and out stayer. The Ultima was run on the old course which is pretty sharp and doesn't take getting too much getting home on. It really favours horses that jump and get away from there fences well. Punchestown is very similar, and the Punchestown Gold Cup wasn't won in a quick time which usually favours the quickest horse. The Durkan was also over a trip notionally too short, was also slowly run and he was the fastest horse at the finish. Essentially he has won those races by using his speed and by jumping well throughout. That of course doesn't mean he won't stay the Gold Cup trip, but the nature of his wins so far aren't comparable with what he'll face in the Gold Cup. He also runs quite freely, and that's never a good thing in a Gold Cup.

I also want to add some context to Fastorslow's two victories over Galopin des Champs. At Punchestown Galopin had arrived having four tough races including his Gold Cup, whereas Fastorslow had only been actually trying once in the season, and that was in the Ultima, which by definition is not going to be as tough as a Gold Cup. All the Ultima seemed to do was bring Fastorslow on, whereas Galopin was probably over the top.

Fast forward to Punchestown at the weekend. Willie's big names when they've come out have all looked like they needed the race. Galopin included, who looked like he hadn't seen a fence since April. Fastorslow however looked fit, sharp, and ready to go. He still only beat Galopin less than two lengths after Galoipin had jumped like a pig for the first half of the race.b I suspect Galopin will come on a ton for that race, and I expect him to hose up looking like himself at Christmas.

Now to Galopin, and whether those two races are a sign he's finished. I definitely don't think so. I think there are legitimate reasons for both defeats. Punchestown in April over the top, against a fresh horse just peaking for the season, and Punchestown November not fully wound up and not schooled against a horse (or horses) that were more forward. I feel that he will improve past Fastorslow, and will beat him next time they meet, and if that's the Gold Cup trip on the new course I'd be completely confident he would. I'm also a great believer in not judging any horse on its seasonal debut, and to make that call after a second run after they've come on for it.

I actually love the fact that the markets don't do the same though, which makes it the perfect time to back your judgement and snaffle better prices. I think that currently the right three horses are at the top of the Gold Cup market, but I regard 3/1 about Galopin a gift, and he's gone in a few more multiples as a consequence. I think 5/1 about Fastorslow is a horrible price though and would be touching him if I hadn't already got him onside earlier for my book.

If I had to sum it up I don't think Fastorslow will stay in a true run Gold Cup. In actual fact I think something like Corach Rambler is more likely to place than Fastorslow is. I think Gerri Colombe will be outpaced and do all his best work late running on into a place. And Galopin who has the perfect blend of stamina and speed will win the race for a second time.

Great discussion. I'll start with Fastorslow, where I thought the suggestion leading up to the race was that the horse wasn't anywhere near fit? Kind of supported in the betting where he drifted out to 9/1 but don't know if judges in the paddock differed in the initial idea of Fastorslow not being fit however? Hard to say how much of a bearing the race will have as to the future. Obviously RPRs were very low for the standard of the contest, Appreciate It got a good time of it in front and Fastorslow jumped and finished well whereas GDC jumped somewhat poorly and lacked that sparkle we had become accustomed to yet still wasn't beaten far despite how much went against him.

The problem I would have with backing GDC as favourite is the form of the Gold Cup stinks considering it is the pinnacle of grade 1 Chases. He has been beat twice, BMG been beaten three times, along with Conflated. Noble Yeats two defeats, Protektorat ran just once but was well beat in his big seasonal target. It's all the way down to 6th to find a horse that finished the race and has won since. Though considering 3 of the 4 Betfair Chase runners competed in the Gold Cup last season then it was long odds on one of them would win. The only other finisher in the GC was Eldorado Allen who has been comfortably beat in three starts. While it was a cracking race to watch, either the race has left a significant mark or that it wasn't as good as we initially thought... Or perhaps a combination of both?

Anyway, thinking long and hard about it, I think the bet could be BMG for KG and GDC for GC double. Pays 14/1 with most bookmakers. At least if BMG was to win the King George it would answer a couple of the questions with regard the standard of the Gold Cup last year and whether you can get a horse fit and ready for its big target after such a gruelling race.

[Istabraq]

There's been plenty of debate around Galopin des Champs, have to say I'm a little surprised at the number of FJs writing him off for a Gold Cup defence, my thoughts are aligned to Spectre in many ways I think.
19f around Punchestown in November is close to as far away you can get from 26.5f around Cheltenham in March, I'm not going to second guess training regimes but I'd be fairly sure GDC wasn't trained to peak last Saturday.
It's been widely discussed that Mullins horses come back from Summer breaks later than anyone's and I wouldn't be surprised if the inner circle were quietly delighted with the reappearance.
I'm not convinced 3/1 is tremendous value given Fastorslow and Gerri Colombe are both now, in my opinon, credible competition, but he would still be the most likely winner to me...

[Rooster Booster]

I think a lot more would agree than disagree, especially as to what is value right now, all things considered.

If today was the race, and you had to choose one bet at the prices then GDC would be the percentage call for most I reckon. Not sure it's a Gift though as this will depend if any meet before March and how many stay sound. In short, I'd not be as convinced as I was prior to the Durkan that he'll go off at shorter than 2-1. So whilst 3-1 now is value IMO, I'd personally not be thinking it's overly generous antepost wise.


I kind of disagree with some of the thoughts around Fastorslow's form though, as a lot of this is guesswork around respective schooling and fitness.
I'd have said it's a more common opinion that Fastorslow is as likely to be inconvenienced in a sprint as GDC. He actually looked outpaced in the Punchestown (Gold cup) before staying on.

The race the other day was just another nudge that the Punchestown race was more believable than not.

The risk with backing Galopin is that he has lost a little bit of heart. But I don't subscribe to that personally, I just think it's possible.

And without any real evidence I kind of suspect your theory regarding Fastorslow in the Gold cup could be right.

I completely agree. I suspect if you did a straw poll on here the majority would vote for GDC over Fastorslow though that is just a guess on my part. The view of many I suspect is not that the prices of the two horses now are correct but that the prices at the start of the season did not fully consider the upward curve that fastorslow was on and that those that thought the end of season race was a one off have now been given food for thought.

I have an open mind whether GDC will return back to his very best, he may do or may not . I’m not sure how I could be any more dogmatic either way tbh without further evidence. I also share the view that it’s possible the GC trip at GC pace may test Fastorslow stamina. I don’t recall many arguing that Fastorslow current price represents value but folks can speak for themselves if they do.

I’d also say that on one hand you could argue that Fastorslow was the fresher horse last season and the fitter horse last week (though I don’t know we could know that for sure) and on the other you could argue that he was also a less experienced chaser without a single win over last weeks trip, which we do know for sure.

[HesTheOne]

There's been plenty of debate around Galopin des Champs, have to say I'm a little surprised at the number of FJs writing him off for a Gold Cup defence, my thoughts are aligned to Spectre in many ways I think.
19f around Punchestown in November is close to as far away you can get from 26.5f around Cheltenham in March, I'm not going to second guess training regimes but I'd be fairly sure GDC wasn't trained to peak last Saturday.
It's been widely discussed that Mullins horses come back from Summer breaks later than anyone's and I wouldn't be surprised if the inner circle were quietly delighted with the reappearance.
I'm not convinced 3/1 is tremendous value given Fastorslow and Gerri Colombe are both now, in my opinon, credible competition, but he would still be the most likely winner to me...

I think delighted is bit of a reach.. surely they were disappointed. They definitely did not want that form being franked again and it happened. Nor would Paul have expected to be looking at Appreciate It’s arse ahead of him either.

Don’t want to get into essay writing but short and sweet, I agree with sentiment Galopin isn’t a burst bubble but I’d also argue there’s a lot of assumptions being made about Fastorslow that really have no weight - mainly about a fitness edge he had over the others or his poor prospects of going further. He’s beaten the gold cup holder twice in a row now and both times the markets have had it wrong.

It’s certainly opened up the race and I for one am delighted it has happened. Galopin is being topped up in multis but equally I want Fastorslow in the book, he’s beaten the gold cup 1-2 with god knows how much upside he may still have to give.

[Istabraq]

I think delighted is bit of a reach.. surely they were disappointed. They definitely did not want that form being franked again and it happened. Nor would Paul have expected to be looking at Appreciate It’s arse ahead of him either.

Don’t want to get into essay writing but short and sweet, I agree with sentiment Galopin isn’t a burst bubble but I’d also argue there’s a lot of assumptions being made about Fastorslow that really have no weight - mainly about a fitness edge he had over the others or his poor prospects of going further. He’s beaten the gold cup holder twice in a row now and both times the markets have had it wrong.

It’s certainly opened up the race and I for one am delighted it has happened. Galopin is being topped up in multis but equally I want Fastorslow in the book, he’s beaten the gold cup 1-2 with god knows how much upside he may still have to give.

Assumptions are made by everyone, all the time, including your good self that connections would have been disappointed.
We'll never know.
My point is based on the fact that Gold Cup winners aren't trained to peak in November, and who knows perhaps last years Punchestown defeat hurt so bad they are deliberately starting Galopin off later, and easier, with a view to make March and April in top form knowing full well that a horse can't maintain top form for 5 months.
By the way I'm not dismissing Fastorslow at all...