2024 Gold Cup

[BalthazarKing]

Re-watching race...as Fastorslow approaches that last fence it looks like GDC / Appreciate IT is going to get away. BUT FOS jumps and takes lengths out the field. What a leap.
GDC potentially needs the run, as do a few of willies. But that was great in conditions not to suit. Gold Cup very interesting on these next runs.

[opatcho]

Thought Slevin rode a great race

Appreicate It tends to jumps left, gets more notificable when he’s pushed/tired. Coming down to the last 1-2, Slevin took the inner rail, whilst GDC was force out wide on AI’s left. Didn’t impacted the result but that was a nice move. Townsend would have know about AI’s jumping on right handed track, commented the horse hung left. May have caused GDC to drop a length but as mentioned, not enough to impact the result

[Dilinja]

Lhomme presse the only bet iv had in the race so far

And happy to leave it at that for the moment

Fastorslow should be favourite imo

It should probably be 5/1 the field

lhomme presse certainly of interest now. Has Shortened after todays result. Does anyone know what injury he got in the KG last year? Read what the owner said about it not being career threatening and that it just needed time but no mention of what the injury was.

[opatcho]

Just interested in asking a couple of questions here Opatcho with regards your post -

1) You mention you are/ were in Fastorslow’ camp before the race…..but were a little shocked to see him win. Why then, if ‘onside’ beforehand, were you surprised to see him win?

2) You’ve mentioned that you’ve now ‘covered’ your Gold Cup position by backing Galopin D C, despite him lengthening from 2-1 to 3-1, hardly I would suggest on his 2 previous runs, and the bookies unwillingness to conform, is much of a ‘cover’?

3) You mention he’s likely ‘to run against weaker opposition……and shorten for the GC”….. in the Irish Gold Cup.

When was the last Irish Gold Cup where the overall field were weaker than any running of a John Durkan Chase??

I’d be surprised if any, ever???


My q’s are not meant to divide opinion, merely to understand your thoughts here.

sure hope this helps

1) I’ve backed fastorslow for the coral cup, plot horse. So in my head I have the trainer as someone who can and will train a horse for a big race. Then you look at last year, raced over 2 miles to get a handicap mark for March. Finished second. Didn’t come into today with any confidence that the trainer would have the horse wound up to win over this distance.
Although thought the trip may catch him out, first time out.
Hence why I was surprised to see him win today

2) Yes, this covers the stakes I have on Fastorslow, and some. I still think GDC will perform come March and nothing else other that Fastorslow will be able to hit 178+, which I feel will be needed to win this years renewal

3) GDC will run back over 3 miles, he will be better over that distance. Which 3 miler (outside Fastorslow or Gerri) that is going to turn up in the DRF who will trouble a race for GDC, over what is his trip.

[Rooster Booster]

I think many of us likely underestimated just how big a performance it was from Fastorslow in the Ultima. If you ignore his 3yo chase in France it was only his third ever chase and first lifetime run at the trip and it took a previous winner and subsequent grand national winner to beat him. He beat his previous best rpr by 17 pounds. Has a horse ever achieved an rpr of 165 in the Ultima and not won. Most years he would have won the Ultima very impressively on only his third ever chase start. It seems now what we are seeing is the natural progression of a horse as he gets more experience and matures. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but when an inexperienced chaser goes 143,165,175 on chase start number 2,3 and 4 it now kind of looks bloody obvious that we were witnessing a very good horse indeed.

Instead we focussed understandably on GDC and to a lesser extent BMG and the whole end of season stuff. I know some are on at nice prices but it feels like overall there is a lesson to be learnt here.

[jono]

I imagine most of the fall out from the weekend will be that the Gold Cup bottoms horses and they aren’t the same.
Which is not something I buy into.
Pointing to the subsequent form of lasts years Gold Cup contenders.

Looking back,

A Plus Tard - 2nd in 2021 on his first run in the race. Came back a year later and Won (2022)
Minella Indo - Role reversal of APT - 1st in 2021, 2nd in 2022
Al Boum Photo - Back to back wins in 2019 and 2020
Native River - 3rd in 2017, Came back a year later and Won (2018)
Djakadam - 2nd, 2nd, 4th, 5th between 2015-2018
The Giant Bolster - 2nd, 3rd, 4th between 2012-2014
Long Run - Won in 2011, 3rd in 2012 and 2013

Denman, Kauto, Best Mate before that…

Of those you could make a case for it doing so in recent years?

Might Bite - The wheels did come off in the 18/19 season. But he did follow up at Aintree, looking every bit as good. And always had a bit of a screw loose.
Coneygree - extremely injury prone. They just managed to get a clear run that Gold Cup winning season.
Sizing John - Completed the Gold Cup treble at Punchestown the race after. And comfortable winner of the John Durkan the season after
Bobs Worth - won a Lexus chase after.

A combination of age (often a horses best chance of a Gold Cup will be 8-9, where subsequent runs are generally on a decline, albeit slight)
and an accumulation of 3 miles runs will have taken it’s toll.
Much more so than the Gold Cup itself, imo.

Don’t get me wrong I fully expected Galopin des Champs to win today.
Whilst the previous GdC should have relished the trip today, he’s clearly been trained to be a completely different type of horse to the one we saw a couple of seasons back. But it may actually look a fairly decent race in time.
Fastorslow (who I thought would find it way too sharp today) is improving rapidly and only now being able to show what he is capable of, having spent most of his career held back for handicaps. And still unexposed over 3miles plus.
And Appreciate It, probably for the first time warranting the regard the whole yard appeared to show in him last season, where he got a ride that he was crying out for last season, aggresive and from the front. He doesn’t have a whole load to find against Stage Star by any means.

More so than the Gold Cup taking it's toll on the horse.
I’d argue (and take nothing away from last season, he’s a Gold Cup winner) he’s a top horse - just not a truly special one like myself and many thought he was.

[jono]

I think many of us likely underestimated just how big a performance it was from Fastorslow in the Ultima. If you ignore his 3yo chase in France it was only his third ever chase and first lifetime run at the trip and it took a previous winner and subsequent grand national winner to beat him. He beat his previous best rpr by 17 pounds. Has a horse ever achieved an rpr of 165 in the Ultima and not won. Most years he would have won the Ultima very impressively on only his third ever chase start. It seems now what we are seeing is the natural progression of a horse as he gets more experience and matures. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but when an inexperienced chaser goes 143,165,175 on chase start number 2,3 and 4 it now kind of looks bloody obvious that we were witnessing a very good horse indeed.

Instead we focussed understandably on GDC and to a lesser extent BMG and the whole end of season stuff. I know some are on at nice prices but it feels like overall there is a lesson to be learnt here.

Agree. Since coming over from France, of the 10 runs he’s had. You can discount 4 of those runs for being held completely back for Spring handicaps.
Leaves you with:

2nd - Punchestown - hurdle for UK debut, after a 600 odd day layoff
2nd - Cheltenham - short head defeat in Coral Cup
2nd - Punchestown - handicap hurdle
2nd - Cheltenham - neck defeat to the Grand National winner
1st - Punchestown - beat the Gold Cup 1-2
1st - Punchestown (JD) - beat the Gold Cup winner (again)

Unexposed, improving, with course form and only 7.
And showed today he can handle a sharper trip.

[Kevloaf]

Two excellent posts jono and Rooster Booster

I flippantly said 'how did he not win the Ultima' and whilst that was a bit of a joke, the default is if they can't win a handicap, surely they would need to be exceptional to actually be good enough to win a Championship race, (even a Grade 1 is a stretch, although do-able)

After today, he's now got 2x wins over Galopin des Champs and making excuses for GDS is fine and justifiable, he's still the fav, at 3/1, and it's 0-2 to Fastorslow

Like a few others I probably just assumed he'd get beaten today and therefore the price would hold.


I'm very, very scared of Fastorslow now, despite having GDS and Gerri Colombe backed and feeling very confident 24 hours ago

[opatcho]

The way I think a out horses running gold cup is the effort required to reach such high RPR’s. It’s like setting a new personal best, it’s difficult to do it once, never mind twice

I just think it’s hard for horses to ever reach that PB. Age will always be against them, after “peaking”

GDC scored a 184 RPR for his gold cup win, hard to find a horse will go on to perform just as well, or better. Obviously, they can go on and win another GC if the race is weaker in terms of competition, but it’s a difficult thing to do

GDC does have age on his side, and given his GC rating, he could still come back in March, run 5lbs below his first win and still be very very competitive

[Rooster Booster]

Two excellent posts jono and Rooster Booster

I flippantly said 'how did he not win the Ultima' and whilst that was a bit of a joke, the default is if they can't win a handicap, surely they would need to be exceptional to actually be good enough to win a Championship race, (even a Grade 1 is a stretch, although do-able)

After today, he's now got 2x wins over Galopin des Champs and making excuses for GDS is fine and justifiable, he's still the fav, at 3/1, and it's 0-2 to Fastorslow

Like a few others I probably just assumed he'd get beaten today and therefore the price would hold.


I'm very, very scared of Fastorslow now, despite having GDS and Gerri Colombe backed and feeling very confident 24 hours ago

I deserve no more than 5/10 for my actions. I backed him in the Ultima but not in punchestown the race after. I then backed him for the GC but not yesterday nor the 100 I believe was there for wtagc . No matter how many times I tell myself that I will learn from my mistakes, my ineptitude seems to rise to the surface and dominate.

[Lobos]

Al Boum Photo got beat at Punchestown by Kemboy after winning his first GC and went on to do the double . Think they may have one more run at Tramore for GDC and then go straight to Cheltenham. He's still the one to beat imo.

[TigerRolllllll]

Al Boum Photo got beat at Punchestown by Kemboy after winning his first GC and went on to do the double . Think they may have one more run at Tramore for GDC and then go straight to Cheltenham. He's still the one to beat imo.

Agree that’s what they should do, but if they go Xmas and DRF then that’s tough …..def need easy schedule to win multiple GCs …..unless obviously ur Kauto

[Outlaw]

Al Boum Photo got beat at Punchestown by Kemboy after winning his first GC and went on to do the double . Think they may have one more run at Tramore for GDC and then go straight to Cheltenham. He's still the one to beat imo.

Energumene jumped poorly & seemingly put in his place on trials day with Mullins confident post race come March he’s the one to beat. This feels very similar agreed.

[Exar Essay]

Energumene jumped poorly & seemingly put in his place on trials day with Mullins confident post race come March he’s the one to beat. This feels very similar agreed.

No white fences at Punchestown though

[YoungHustler]

My opinion of Fastorslow has gone up after yesterday's race where I was very disappointed with GDC. However, it just gives me more of a chance to get GDC on board as my only bet for the Gold Cup. I don't think GDC was anywhere as fit as Fastorslow, who had a racecourse gallop 10 days ago. GDC just didn't run any sort of race and I was already worried after seeing him jump the first few fences. He was described as feeling 'dead in himself ' by Townend so to even be involved in the finish was a surprise imo. Therefore I won't be going overboard with Fastorslow's performance because Appreciate It is only a mid 150s horse imo.