Originally posted by Spectre
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Spectre Racing Previews, Reviews, and Jump Racing Videos
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The Stayers preview is now up. Some big priced horses to consider, including one I'm particularly sweet on:
Give it a retweet if you like it please, and even better if you're happy to recommend it.Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
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Originally posted by Spectre View Post
Thanks Outlaw.
My take is Bronn didn't quite get home over three miles in the Brown Advisory, so a Gold Cup campaign will make no sense. His previous two and a half mile chases I thought were very good, and it looks to be his trip. If you're concerned about him being a bridle merchant it's worth watching his race back at Fairyhouse at the end of January, when he had to properly tough it out. I suspect he can idle though, so I understand why you raise it.
His novice chase form stands up to sufficient scrutiny to suggest he could be a major player in the Ryanair, and I just think he's a horse that people haven't generally picked up on. 50/1 is a big price, and yes I agree it's worth picking bits a pieces up on the exchange. That said he's the kind of horse that I like to have backed each way because he gives me the flexibility of laying back either the win part, the place part, or both, which is my preferred approach to locking in a profit, and then still having the win, the place, or both playing for me on the day.
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Took some time but I've now caught up. Thoroughly enjoyable too.
My immediate brief thoughts.....
XCC....a no bet race for me in view of how tightly matched the top three are but I'd give a shout out and wouldn't ignore Vanillier who I also think will head this way. That'll be some race.
Agree that Sir Gerhard may end up in the Stayers along with Gaelic Warrior as not convinced at all about his love of fences last season. Also agree re Marie's Rock. For me she looks a non Stayer and I'll be against her along with you.
I'm also not convinced that IEF will go to Cheltenham. Has Tom George said that's the plan ? I know they are potentially coming over to Newbury in December but not heard of any plans beyond that. There
are plenty of valuable races at Autueil in the Spring which he can run him so he may just stay at home for those and perhaps plan for Cheltenham 2025? He is very young after all and has plenty of time.
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Originally posted by Lobos View Post
I'm also not convinced that IEF will go to Cheltenham. Has Tom George said that's the plan ? I know they are potentially coming over to Newbury in December but not heard of any plans beyond that. There
are plenty of valuable races at Autueil in the Spring which he can run him so he may just stay at home for those and perhaps plan for Cheltenham 2025? He is very young after all and has plenty of time.
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Originally posted by darlojim View Post
I'd second this, is there actual quotes floating about from connections actually saying they'll target the festival? Has to be a huge doubt if not
season target
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Originally posted by Spectre View Post
Thanks Outlaw.
My take is Bronn didn't quite get home over three miles in the Brown Advisory, so a Gold Cup campaign will make no sense. His previous two and a half mile chases I thought were very good, and it looks to be his trip. If you're concerned about him being a bridle merchant it's worth watching his race back at Fairyhouse at the end of January, when he had to properly tough it out. I suspect he can idle though, so I understand why you raise it.
His novice chase form stands up to sufficient scrutiny to suggest he could be a major player in the Ryanair, and I just think he's a horse that people haven't generally picked up on. 50/1 is a big price, and yes I agree it's worth picking bits a pieces up on the exchange. That said he's the kind of horse that I like to have backed each way because he gives me the flexibility of laying back either the win part, the place part, or both, which is my preferred approach to locking in a profit, and then still having the win, the place, or both playing for me on the day.
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Three in the can and posted today
The Triumph Hurdle
The Albert Bartlett
The Mares Chase
I'm doing a 3 parter tomorrow for the Gold Cup to wrap things up.
Part 1 will be a potted history
Part 2 will be stats and trends
Part 3 will be my view on the race.
I hope you guys are enjoying these? It would be great to get some feedback on your thoughts. I plan to refresh after Christmas and then pre-Festival, so let me know how they can be improved?
Whilst these are almost complete, I plan to cover other things, so I'll be previewing the 2 day Chepstow opener on Wednesday and Thursday. I can post them here too if there's any interest?
I want to cover a number of subjects ongoing, so I'd be really interested to hear if there are any particular subjects you'd like me to cover? Bear in mind though that these are a maximum of 10 minutes, so I can't do in depth. Anything more would have to be saved for a podcast with Kev and Jono, and would specifically be antepost related.Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
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Yes, did I say Kargese was a colt AV? Slip of the tongue. Apologies, particularly as mixing them up is one of my pert hates!
I had Nara as with Kenny Alexander and De Bromhead in my notes, so thanks for letting me know. I've just updated.Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
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Originally posted by Spectre View PostThree in the can and posted today
The Triumph Hurdle
The Albert Bartlett
The Mares Chase
I'm doing a 3 parter tomorrow for the Gold Cup to wrap things up.
Part 1 will be a potted history
Part 2 will be stats and trends
Part 3 will be my view on the race.
I hope you guys are enjoying these? It would be great to get some feedback on your thoughts. I plan to refresh after Christmas and then pre-Festival, so let me know how they can be improved?
Whilst these are almost complete, I plan to cover other things, so I'll be previewing the 2 day Chepstow opener on Wednesday and Thursday. I can post them here too if there's any interest?
I want to cover a number of subjects ongoing, so I'd be really interested to hear if there are any particular subjects you'd like me to cover? Bear in mind though that these are a maximum of 10 minutes, so I can't do in depth. Anything more would have to be saved for a podcast with Kev and Jono, and would specifically be antepost related.
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Thanks guys. I really appreciate it.
So the previews are finally complete with the three part Gold Cup previews below.
In the first one I explain why the Cheltenham Bars have the names they have, and why I'm called Spectre. It makes sense when you watch it!!
Part 2 is the tools to narrow the field down to find the winner and the value
And finally Part 3 is a rundown of the main contenders, culminating in my selection plus a 66/1 outsider to get onside too.
I've really enjoyed doing these, and I really appreciate that you've taken the time out to watch them. Thankyou.
As always, I'd really appreciate it if you could retweet and like them, it's the only way I can build the numbers watching.
Also if interested I'm previewing the Two Day Chepstow Persian War Meeting this Friday and Saturday, and I'll be posing the Friday video shortly. I can pop those on here too if anyone wants them.Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
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Chepstow Persian War Meeting
Day 1 Preview In Two Parts
I'd be really interested to get some feedback on these. I'm unsure whether the format works, or even if there is any interest in them. Could you take a look when you get time and give me some feedback please.
I'll be putting the Day 2 Preview up tomorrow.
ThanksLuck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
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