Spectre Racing Previews, Reviews, and Jump Racing Videos

[BuckingThe Trend]

The next two videos are up:

Day 1 is now complete with the National Hunt Chase

https://www.tiktok.com/@paulspectrebeck/video/7285719601084763424

And Day 2 kicks off with The Ballymore

https://www.tiktok.com/@paulspectrebeck/video/7285764741119610144

All feedback and discussion welcome on here.

Thanks

Paul

Thank you very much for taking the time to put these together. Really good summary/synopsis of each race. Shared via Twitter.

PS. Champ Kiely National Hunt...........surely not :-):-).......my pocket sincerely hopes not !

[Spectre]

I suspect Tullyhill may be the one that will fall in behind the others, with Ballyburn and Fact To File being the chosen No.1 Ballymore and Bartlett horses. The market says Ballyburn Ballymore and Fact To File Bartlett, but I'm not convinced that's how it'll play out. The other thing to consider is all three are in different ownership, and big owners for that matter. None will want to compromise, but the easiest compromise is probably going to the race that the owner sponsors. We also don't know which ones have improved the most physically over the summer, so getting in too deep on something in this race might not be a good thing. Bear in mind all of the three ended up within a couple of pounds of each other in two mile bumpers last season, and all would be fine at either two and half miles or three. Plus, knowing Willie, they'll all start out at 2 miles for their seasonal debuts,and he'll figure out based on what settles best and what doesn't combined with ability.

Also as has been pointed out there are other to consider too, so Willie has a ridiculously strong hand for both races. That said the winner would more typically be a top end graded bumper horse, who also excelled in points. So whilst Willie has some other nice horses to consider it would be unusual for them to improve past these three.

One final thing to consider is whether any of the named horses have their marks looked after for a handicap. I don't think any of the three mentioned will, but Mystical very certainly could. He's interesting because there's an emotional attachment in the stable given his dam is Annie Power. The same as Facile Vega in many respects.

[Spectre]

Thank you very much for taking the time to put these together. Really good summary/synopsis of each race. Shared via Twitter.

PS. Champ Kiely National Hunt...........surely not :-):-).......my pocket sincerely hopes not !

It does fit with previous Mullins MO BTT. Willie usually regards his horses that place in the novice hurdles as Grade 2 types. In fact all that placde in the Ballymore and Bartlett over the last 6/7 years were sent down this route. I do see the case against though. I suspect it will depend on how he settles. He hung is chance away at the Festival last season, and I suspect he had some tack on to straighten him out at Punchestown where he jumped left. He settled much better though. Finishing behind High Definition there makes me firmly believe he's not a Festival G1 winner in waiting though.

If he goes to either of the two G1 races you'd suspect he'd be booked for a minor berth again, so he doesn't really appeal as a single bet this far out. Fine for a book approach though. If he settles okay this season, I have no problem with him getting a trip, and he's be a better basic horse than Salvador Ziggy and Letsbeclearaboutit, who are the only two I'm really interested in at this stage.

The only others from Willie that would remotely interest me if they came this way would be Nick Rockett and Grangeclare West. The former is now thought to be having a Brown advisory campaign, despite Patrick previously saying he's a solid Grade 2 horse (clearly wanting the leg up in the NH Chase!), and the latter has something to prove now after not being quite right for most of last season, so it remains to be seen if he's benefited for a summer break.

[ComplyOrDie]

I’m still holding the belief that Readin Tommy Wrong will be a Mullins Ballymore horse. Nothing to do with the colours, he just gave me the vibe he has the tools for the race.

I think we may have had a discussion previously about him, but I can't seem to find it, but I think he could be the double greens Supreme horse.

Whilst Authorized's generally end up as staying types, his better juvenile and novice hurdlers, unless fairly experienced, seem to go down the 2m route.

Also, just a side note to Spectre to say I'm enjoying the short nature of the videos that you are producing. I'm not a Tiktok user but can still watch them too, which is a bonus. Keep them coming

[Lobos]

"If he goes to either of the two G1 races you'd suspect he'd be booked for a minor berth again"

This is exactly the reason I have only backed Champ Kiely for the NHC. He falls short of being absolutely top class and the NHC is his only chance of Festival success imo.

[JackieMoon33]

I think we may have had a discussion previously about him, but I can't seem to find it, but I think he could be the double greens Supreme horse.

Whilst Authorized's generally end up as staying types, his better juvenile and novice hurdlers, unless fairly experienced, seem to go down the 2m route.

Also, just a side note to Spectre to say I'm enjoying the short nature of the videos that you are producing. I'm not a Tiktok user but can still watch them too, which is a bonus. Keep them coming

I have a feeling in our other discussion you may have said he was a stayer
I'm glad you've moved to the Supreme though as that is the better starting point for a horse that would be suitable for the Ballymore.

[ComplyOrDie]

I have a feeling in our other discussion you may have said he was a stayer
I'm glad you've moved to the Supreme though as that is the better starting point for a horse that would be suitable for the Ballymore.

Did I? Brilliant

I looked further into him recently and just thought Supreme!

[JackieMoon33]

Did I? Brilliant

I looked further into him recently and just thought Supreme!

Found the post from you but didn't really state anything conclusive.

"He's by Authorized, and plenty of stamina on the dams side, could end up being their Ballymore horse?

He's on my list, but based on his bumper RPR's he'd be behind a fair few currently, so I'm inclined to think along the lines of a handicap for him, though could be proven wrong."

[ComplyOrDie]

Found the post from you but didn't really state anything conclusive.

"He's by Authorized, and plenty of stamina on the dams side, could end up being their Ballymore horse?

He's on my list, but based on his bumper RPR's he'd be behind a fair few currently, so I'm inclined to think along the lines of a handicap for him, though could be proven wrong."

Terrific, at least, between the Supreme, Ballymore and handicaps I've got a fair chance of being right

Now to make a case for the Bartlett.....

[JackieMoon33]

Terrific, at least, between the Supreme, Ballymore and handicaps I've got a fair chance of being right

Now to make a case for the Bartlett.....

Hahaha! I'm definitely glad you've landed on the Supreme from your latest assessment though. As he came from points and registered a decent enough bumper RPR, I'm happy with the Ballymore option as I still have Willie covered in the Supreme with Mirazur West and Gaucher.

[ComplyOrDie]

Hahaha! I'm definitely glad you've landed on the Supreme from your latest assessment though. As he came from points and registered a decent enough bumper RPR, I'm happy with the Ballymore option as I still have Willie covered in the Supreme with Mirazur West and Gaucher.

I've backed Gaucher though he's not very high on my list. I think I backed him for two reasons, firstly he's obviously trained by Willie and secondly because Saxon made a good case for him, other than that I'm not convinced by him. Mirazur West would be my main hope for Willie this coming season, though he could easily end up in the Ballymore too (personally I hope not).

[Lobos]

I've backed Gaucher too on the back of comments made by either Willie or Patrick saying how they've got high hopes for him and that he could be one to put Frankel firmly on the map for NH Racing. Something along those lines anyway. His Breeding really stands out..........on paper !

[Lobos]

Found it....

It was Harold Kirk who bought Gaucher for connections....

Kirk was in no mood to hide his enthusiasm for both Gaucher and his sire, saying: "He's heading to hopefully be a top-class hurdle horse and will go back on the Flat at some stage. I think Frankel one day will get a Champion Hurdle horse.

"He's very strong, he’s got a lot of class and is from a fantastic mother. I absolutely love the horse and hopefully he's going to be top class. He's going to Willie Mullins and I'm trying to find the next Hurricane Fly. Hopefully one day it will be him."


Sounds like he could follow the Vauban route to the Melbourne Cup one day.

[Lobos]

Must be pointed out that Hurricane Fly had his first run for Willie as a 4yo (same age as Gaucher) but didn't run at the festival (Winning his first Champion Hurdle) until he was 7 so they could potentially hold Gaucher back as well and just pick up decent races in Ireland and on the flat for a few years.

[JackieMoon33]

Found it....

It was Harold Kirk who bought Gaucher for connections....

Kirk was in no mood to hide his enthusiasm for both Gaucher and his sire, saying: "He's heading to hopefully be a top-class hurdle horse and will go back on the Flat at some stage. I think Frankel one day will get a Champion Hurdle horse.

"He's very strong, he’s got a lot of class and is from a fantastic mother. I absolutely love the horse and hopefully he's going to be top class. He's going to Willie Mullins and I'm trying to find the next Hurricane Fly. Hopefully one day it will be him."


Sounds like he could follow the Vauban route to the Melbourne Cup one day.

Little bit extra from my diary

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat-jockey-horse-racing-forum/cheltenham-festival-2021/members-only-cheltenham-antepost-diaries/407794-jackie-moon-2024-possible-last-hurrah?p=407802#post407802