Spectre Racing Previews, Reviews, and Jump Racing Videos

[Spectre]

I've just posted the early Arkle Preview for those of you that are interested. It would be really good to get as much feedback on the format as possible, and also whether you agree or oppose the position I've taken. What I hope to be able to do when possible is add something to the debate, and perhaps give a view that may either help the approach to a race or to add some clarity. Plus throw th e odd new horse to consider for good measure.

https://twitter.com/PaulBeck3001/sta...41028423131273

This one below was the first one of the series covering the Supreme if anyone missed it.

https://twitter.com/PaulBeck3001/sta...35288931930368

Let me know you views on the first two races on here, and we can discuss on this thread. I'll be posting these regularly so I'll post them when I do, and I'll add a link to the opening post.

Also when I've completed the series, I intend to cover the other topical things that are happening in Jumps Racing. So let me know any subject matter you'd like to hear about, or ask a question and I'll cover it or answer it.

Thanks

Paul

The Supreme Novices https://twitter.com/PaulBeck3001/sta...35288931930368

The Arkle https://twitter.com/PaulBeck3001/sta...41028423131273

The Champion Hurdle https://twitter.com/PaulBeck3001/sta...28505795444737

[Morley Street]

Loving these previews Paul… short and too the point is good and think they are invaluable to those of us who are forming books on races.

Couldn’t agree more with the way you have summed up the Arkle market and whilst I’ve previously taken a punt on a couple you mention in the Supreme, this market is too immature for me at this stage to form any great opinion.

Keep up the good work… particularly looking forward to your BANC preview

[Lobos]

Enjoyed those two Spectre.

Interested in why you didn't give the current Supreme fav (ADTS) a mention. Would it just be the price that puts you off ?

[Redbridge]

Paul, thanks for taking the time, great reviews.


Shame is, I am still struggling to get on, I have a friend who can get me a couple of quid on, but it's hardly worth the bother, I will always hold an interest in the sport, far better to be a player than a spectator.

[Spectre]

Enjoyed those two Spectre.

Interested in why you didn't give the current Supreme fav (ADTS) a mention. Would it just be the price that puts you off ?

Just that he's so obvious Lobos. I certainly respect his chance.

[Spectre]

Paul, thanks for taking the time, great reviews.


Shame is, I am still struggling to get on, I have a friend who can get me a couple of quid on, but it's hardly worth the bother, I will always hold an interest in the sport, far better to be a player than a spectator.

Thanks Redbridge. That's very much appreciated.

I intend to do a video at some point on exactly that subject by the way. I may need to do it in several parts though!!!

[Spectre]

Loving these previews Paul… short and too the point is good and think they are invaluable to those of us who are forming books on races.

Couldn’t agree more with the way you have summed up the Arkle market and whilst I’ve previously taken a punt on a couple you mention in the Supreme, this market is too immature for me at this stage to form any great opinion.

Keep up the good work… particularly looking forward to your BANC preview

That feedback is very much appreciated. I wanted these to be very different to the FJ Podcasts we do, and hoped it would work.

[Spectre]

The next in the series is now up. This time it's the Champion Hurdle. Surely nothing to discuss I hear you say. This one will be over in 20 seconds. Well I offer a view where Constitution Hill could get beaten and it's a full 5 minutes!

https://twitter.com/PaulBeck3001/status/1707328505795444737

I'd be really interested to hear your thoughts on my take.

And if you don't mind could you give it a retweet so I can get it out as far and wide as possible.

Thanks for watching and making the time to do them worthwhile.

[Lobos]

Agree with you that Lossiemouth could well go Champion Hurdle. Agree also that State Man will definitely be ridden differently this time around. Not so sure that they seriously think IEP can beat CH or that he's even champion hurdle class. Just think they want to give him another year to mature before going chasing as the long term goal with him will be the GC imo. Like you, can't see CH being beaten but at least the race will be a little more interesting this time around.

[Morley Street]

I can see the angle but I feel that the stronger the gallop, the more it plays into Constitution Hill’s hands… don’t think State Man could go fast enough to take him out of his comfort zone and tend to agree with Lobos re the long game for Impaire.

[Guinness Village]

I believe that you will both be very surprised. IEP proper horse. There’s a reason that CH hasn’t got a higher rating than istabraq or faugheen. That’ll be because he’s not as good. In IEP you have a proper horse that’ll serve it up to him. Willie knows!! He’s much better than stateman.

[Lobos]

Really hope you are right GV. Be great to have a competitive race.

[Quevega]

Yep, I think IEP could prove better than State Man.

Tactically, the best way IMO would be to ensure Constitution Hill has to make the running early doors, and if not then run it at a crawl, but assuming he is forced to go on in front, then send something alongside to harangue him a bit, and if capable then take it up and then slow it down again at the top of the hill. Essentially fuck him about a bit, ruffle the posh boys hair and nick his lunch.
Would need a sacrificial lamb, and that may prove difficult politically.
But State Man would be the perfect option and his connections might buy the idea that it's his best chance of winning. Given he's had one go already.

[Lobos]

Carvills Hill style foul play

[Outlaw]

Yep, I think IEP could prove better than State Man.

Tactically, the best way IMO would be to ensure Constitution Hill has to make the running early doors, and if not then run it at a crawl, but assuming he is forced to go on in front, then send something alongside to harangue him a bit, and if capable then take it up and then slow it down again at the top of the hill. Essentially fuck him about a bit, ruffle the posh boys hair and nick his lunch.
Would need a sacrificial lamb, and that may prove difficult politically.
But State Man would be the perfect option and his connections might buy the idea that it's his best chance of winning. Given he's had one go already.

I'd agree, the only scenario I could envisage is if something stole a lead off a stop start and Nico let them(jockey error) as with so few runners inevitable nothing should be able to get a run on one another with say 2 to jump. The stronger run a race the better it suits the best horse in it and he's certainly that.

Touching on IEP, obvs excited to see him and he looks like he will appreciate a very strongly run race but one think I'd want to be seeing is him in open company on decent ground at back at 2m, might be a few reasons as to why he didn't look electric lto vs Chelt but that was the quickest surface he's been on and whilst he won well in the end he took a while to get motoring on that surface whilst he clearly glides on softer surfaces.