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David Mullins hates Gaelic Warrior but said the exact same thing about winning by 20 lengths. Agree with lot of your points and I feel like my bet with Gaelic Warrior might be to win by 6 lengths or more or something similar
I genuinely think he wins head in chest or he bombs out completely and is pulled up.
Go hard off the front in a galloping track like the new course and let him beat them by the time they get to the top of the hill down the back straight like Allaho did in his first Ryanair win.
I think that's the optimistic view to be honest. He's finished 2nd at the last two festivals. Not exactly what you'd want for a win back / place lay. Every chance he runs well again but isn't good enough...
He’s going to get an easy lead off the front which he probably needs. On that run at Christmas, he wins this head in his chest.
Not sure he gets an easy lead. Harry Cobden will ensure Ginny's Destiny is ridden forward, as he has done at the course all year. American Mike and Iroko will want to be prominent as well. There's no way he gets an easy lead.
His run at Xmas is rated by Timeform the same as Grey Dawning and one pound above Ginny's Destiny. RPRs have the last two ahead of Gaelic Warrior. Simon Rowlands on ATR has him 2 pound clear of Grey Dawning and 3 ahead of Ginny's Destiny. Not sure his win at Limerick is necessarily good enough without some level of improvement.
For me, he would be the most talented horse lining up in the race but that doesn't necessarily mean he will win. I'd be waiting until he's in the parade ring and going down to the start before I'd consider having a bet on him. If he behaves like he did at Leopardstown, he hasn't got a chance of winning.
If Gaelic runs in the Turners, in another world he’d have been odds on for this. Let’s say for whatever reason at the Dublin Fez, Fact To File fell at the 1st leaving Gaelic to hack around for 2 and a half miles. This field looks so poor and he was 5/4 before that race for this. It now looks like an absolutely piss poor race. He only jumps right when he comes under pressure. He’s going to get an easy lead off the front which he probably needs. On that run at Christmas, he wins this head in his chest.
The closer we get, the more I’m thinking that if he runs, I’m going to max bet him purely on the price. Obviously I’m quite heavily involved already and vowed to do no more but when you look at this likely field, he should wallop them. How in gods name lads can he be 4/1 NRNB against what is likely going to be Ginnys Destiny (a glorified handicapper), Iroko (after one chase run and a serious injury) and perhaps Grey Dawning who I personally think would be far better in the 3m race. Facile won’t run. Or if he did, he’d go to the Arkle I’d say.
Gaelic wins this on the bridle off the front by 20 lengths on a galloping track. Gaelic Cert this is his year.
’He is in the three mile six National Hunt Chase and is the top rated on RPRs but the Brown Advisory could cut up. He was wrong at Warwick and had ulcers and scoped dirty but we have had a long, long time to get him right. His work this morning was very pleasing so, hopefully, we will get a good representation from him. I wouldn’t be too worried about the English challengers, it’s what Willie Mullins sends over that matters.”
Having a look at the arkle here, 8 of last 10 had achieved a timescan figures in the 140s over fences.
The exception Duc & PTKO.
Had a look at Duc's race and basically anyone over 140 got cleaned when Ornua fell.
Espirit Du Large was the only one to achieve it in PTKO's year with a 144, he was going pretty well till a mistake at the 4th last put him under pressure and he ultimate fell when beat.
Anyway there is no qualifiers this year. Several of the key market players dont even have 120. The English horses seem to have the better times maybe due to ground but could be a surprise in this.
I can’t see the image I’m afraid - just get ‘not authorised’. What’s timescan?
It was included by accident anyway. It's a racing post figure based off standard times at tracks. I assume its formula generated rather than RPR which I assume is someone's opinion.
Out of interest, who are getting the top ratings this year Folski
If they are the same as the Top Speed figure, Djelo has the highest rating.
They've given Marine Nationale a comically low TS for his maiden win - a 119 while Timeform have it as a 155 and they're on the same scale as their normal ratings.
Same for Master Chewy (149 time rating at Kempton for Timeform and 128 for Top Speed).
The Timeform ones take into account sectionals and finishing speeds while Top Speed don't and IMO the Top Speed figures are pretty awful.
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