2024 Novice Chasers

[Eggs]

If they don’t aim high with him I wonder if they would be smart enough to go for the plate.

Old course more stamina and he stays 3m imo maybe just not well enough for the top level.

He’s probably ran to high 140’s there so could still be more to come.

….22-1 NRNB Ultima in Hills specials.

[Carnage at Taunton]

A negative for anything leaving it this late I'd say.

If a trainer runs a horse close enough to the festival and then runs that horse at the festival, I would have faith he knows what he’s doing.
If he don’t turn up I would have nrnb if wagering now.

[Lobos]

If a trainer runs a horse close enough to the festival and then runs that horse at the festival, I would have faith he knows what he’s doing.
If he don’t turn up I would have nrnb if wagering now.

Not sure about that. Could just be a desperate attempt to raise its handicap mark to scrape in/give the owners a day out or running them after an enforced break in a last gasp effort to get them fit or pick up a nice prize before Cheltenham as they don't fancy their chances at the Fez. The NRNB isn't any good to me if they do the above and then run at the fez with little chance having left their race behind. No likey.

[Odin]

Don't think the stats back this sort of thing up.
Especially for handicappers.

They (sort of) do.

All festival handicaps, last 5 festivals:

0-25 days since last run:
222 bets, 8 wins (3.6%), 32 places (14.41%), +31.36 bfsp
25 + days since last run:
808 bets, 39 wins (4.83%), 153 places (18.94%), +123.34 bfsp
Not loads in it, but definitely favours approx 1 month or more break before the festival

[Carnage at Taunton]

Not sure about that. Could just be a desperate attempt to raise its handicap mark to scrape in/give the owners a day out or running them after an enforced break in a last gasp effort to get them fit or pick up a nice prize before Cheltenham as they don't fancy their chances at the Fez. The NRNB isn't any good to me if they do the above and then run at the fez with little chance having left their race behind. No likey.

Well yes if they run when they ain’t likely to win, that’s a problem of course.
Need to suss it out beforehand.
I reckon you can do that Lobos.

[Craigy14]

Sort of gone off track to what I was meaning, it was ground related and not necessarily running this late.

If the ground isn’t too bad (unlikely) then I wouldn’t be too worried running at this stage, but we would all take it on a horse by horse basis anyway. If the grounds as soft as it’s likely to be given the weather then it’d be a huge negative for me, as far as I can remember there’s barely been a runner from that Ascot meeting that’s shown up in the same form come Cheltenham.

[Quevega]

They (sort of) do.

All festival handicaps, last 5 festivals:

0-25 days since last run:
222 bets, 8 wins (3.6%), 32 places (14.41%), +31.36 bfsp
25 + days since last run:
808 bets, 39 wins (4.83%), 153 places (18.94%), +123.34 bfsp
Not loads in it, but definitely favours approx 1 month or more break before the festival

Not enough in that though is there ?
Any reason you didn't go back 6 years ?

[Runragged]

Sort of gone off track to what I was meaning, it was ground related and not necessarily running this late.

If the ground isn’t too bad (unlikely) then I wouldn’t be too worried running at this stage, but we would all take it on a horse by horse basis anyway. If the grounds as soft as it’s likely to be given the weather then it’d be a huge negative for me, as far as I can remember there’s barely been a runner from that Ascot meeting that’s shown up in the same form come Cheltenham.

Ground at the moment is down as good to soft, soft in places. Bit of light rain forecast tonight but then dry until Sunday, so imagine it will stay on the soft side of good to soft.

As to the Ascot meeting, Shishkin went close having won at Ascot before unlucky (arguably) runner up in the Ryanair. Oscar Elite also won a weak Reynoldstown before a creditable 5th in the very hot Ultima last year. That was on good to soft ground. The year before then Corach Rambler unseated in the Reynoldstown on soft ground before winning the Ultima for the first time. Further exploits though mean he was a very well handicapped horse at the time! Does He Know, the winner of that Reynoldstown did flop in the Ultima however.

[Odin]

Not enough in that though is there ?
Any reason you didn't go back 6 years ?

It's weak support imo but there is some support there.

5 years was because that was saved from previously and CBA changing it. Also disregards likely longer term biases. You're old enough (inferring from comments you've made) to remember things like imperial cup/festival doubles which suggests handicappers go well. Others here are probably old enough to remember the poor record of ascot chase/Reynoldstown runners. Both induce biases in their own way.

Last 5 years just tells us what's happening now (for better or worse).


Ps - I know you were being sarcastic with your response

[Quevega]

It's weak support imo but there is some support there.

5 years was because that was saved from previously and CBA changing it. Also disregards likely longer term biases. You're old enough (inferring from comments you've made) to remember things like imperial cup/festival doubles which suggests handicappers go well. Others here are probably old enough to remember the poor record of ascot chase/Reynoldstown runners. Both induce biases in their own way.

Last 5 years just tells us what's happening now (for better or worse).


Ps - I know you were being sarcastic with your response

And I know you know there were at least 3 in 2018.

[Quevega]

For you younger lot, the reynoldstown regularly threw up winners at the festival and only in recent years has this been a little more sparse, and that's probably the general Irish dominance more than anything.

[Odin]

And I know you know there were at least 3 in 2018.

Id be more concerned about the 6 in 2017 if I was you! My feeling is that the festival and the way horses have been trained for it have changed since then though. 8 winners in 5 years versus 10 winners in the two previous years does add some evidence to this thought

[Quevega]

Id be more concerned about the 6 in 2017 if I was you! My feeling is that the festival and the way horses have been trained for it have changed since then though. 8 winners in 5 years versus 10 winners in the two previous years does add some evidence to this thought

For that theory - You'd need to go back further really, as 2017 sounds like an anomaly. On the face of it.

But i think it's widely accepted that horses are not ran as regularly as they used too. So would probably play out like you suggest.

[Craigy14]

Ground at the moment is down as good to soft, soft in places. Bit of light rain forecast tonight but then dry until Sunday, so imagine it will stay on the soft side of good to soft.

As to the Ascot meeting, Shishkin went close having won at Ascot before unlucky (arguably) runner up in the Ryanair. Oscar Elite also won a weak Reynoldstown before a creditable 5th in the very hot Ultima last year. That was on good to soft ground. The year before then Corach Rambler unseated in the Reynoldstown on soft ground before winning the Ultima for the first time. Further exploits though mean he was a very well handicapped horse at the time! Does He Know, the winner of that Reynoldstown did flop in the Ultima however.

You’ve answered exactly what I was saying though RR, it was good to soft last year.

I’m talking about when the ground has been soft or worse, which from memory, other than last year has been those conditions.

Im not saying every single horse, just most I’ll not be keen on.

[ComplyOrDie]

Looks as though Nick Rockett won't be on the boat.

Matched @ 25's on the exchanges for the NH Chase & 65's for the BANC.