2024 Novice Chasers

[Odin]

If I'm McManus, I'm putting Inthepocket and Iroko both in the Turners (as free shots) and Fact To File in the RSA.

I wouldn't put any one raced horse in the Arkle this year. It's a "weak" race but still has five Grade One winners in it, at least two of those (Marine and Quilixios, possibly Facile as well) will be double Grade One winners. There's a lot of depth there.

The Turners, by comparison, has Fact To File (who is expected to win either race and will be aimed at the Gold Cup next year), a superstar going in the other direction who may not turn up (Gaelic), and/or possibly a horse who Willie thinks the world of but hasn't really shown it on track (Facile). The rest are handicappers at the moment, it's clearly a winnable race for both Iroko and Inthepocket, whereas I don't think the Arkle is.

I also don't think doing this is moving Fact To File for the other two. In December, Willie stated they'd nominated him for the RSA so if he'd win either race and you've got two lightly raced horses who could go for an easier race which they could still win and could be better for their longer-term careers, why wouldn't you? This is purely from a JP perspective and assumes FTF would win either race. If they don't think FTF would beat Stay Away Fay (or anyone else in the RSA), then he should obviously go Turners

[Irish Rugby]

It's a redline for me usually, horses coming back from injury and then thrown into a Festival.

Even more so with Inthepocket and Iroko. And both without prep runs and interrupted preparations. The latter was supposed to be out for the season and Inthepocket most likely had a season ending injury.

OK, if you're having to make a book, but like me if you're not, are you really swayed by either of these?

I'm trying to think how many horses have had injuries that have come back, and then won. Not many, I'd wager.

[Carnage at Taunton]

If I'm McManus, I'm putting Inthepocket and Iroko both in the Turners (as free shots) and Fact To File in the RSA.

I wouldn't put any one raced horse in the Arkle this year. It's a "weak" race but still has five Grade One winners in it, at least two of those (Marine and Quilixios, possibly Facile as well) will be double Grade One winners. There's a lot of depth there.

The Turners, by comparison, has Fact To File (who is expected to win either race and will be aimed at the Gold Cup next year), a superstar going in the other direction who may not turn up (Gaelic), and/or possibly a horse who Willie thinks the world of but hasn't really shown it on track (Facile). The rest are handicappers at the moment, it's clearly a winnable race for both Iroko and Inthepocket, whereas I don't think the Arkle is.

I also don't think doing this is moving Fact To File for the other two. In December, Willie stated they'd nominated him for the RSA so if he'd win either race and you've got two lightly raced horses who could go for an easier race which they could still win and could be better for their longer-term careers, why wouldn't you? This is purely from a JP perspective and assumes FTF would win either race. If they don't think FTF would beat Stay Away Fay (or anyone else in the RSA), then he should obviously go Turners

In the pocket???
That would be great, but surely too late I would think

[isitmarchyet]

Brown Advisory favoured for Grey Dawning

Protektorat’s Cheltenham participation may still be up in the air, but one of Skelton’s string fully on course for the spring showpiece is star novice chaser Grey Dawning, who will head straight to the Cotswolds having skipped Sandown’s recent Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase.
A winner of the Grade Two Hampton Novices’ Chase last month, Skelton would like to continue plying the talented seven-year-old’s trade at three miles, with the sure-footed grey currently a best price of 5-1 for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase on the second day of the Festival.
“He will go straight to Cheltenham now and I have a slight preference for the three miler, but I have not ruled out the Turners just in case,” explained Skelton.
“The track would suit him better on the Thursday, but the distance might just be better for him on the Wednesday.
“Of those novice chasers this year, he’s our highest rated one and one of the highest rated in the UK, so we have every right to be bullish about him.”

https://www.racingtv.com/news/ryanair-or-aintree-now-the-next-target-for-protektorat

[Odin]

It's a redline for me usually, horses coming back from injury and then thrown into a Festival.

Even more so with Inthepocket and Iroko. And both without prep runs and interrupted preparations. The latter was supposed to be out for the season and Inthepocket most likely had a season ending injury.

OK, if you're having to make a book, but like me if you're not, are you really swayed by either of these?

I'm trying to think how many horses have had injuries that have come back, and then won. Not many, I'd wager.

Yeah, just to be clear, I'm talking from an owner perspective considering long-term prospects for all 3 horses in my post, which is the way I expect it to be decided by JP. I'm also wary of those with injuries and come back. I'll have a look at some stats for 4 month+ since last run winners at the festival with only one run that season later and report back.

For transparency, Fact To File is my biggest single winner in the Turners and Stay Away Fay in the RSA. My multiples position is significantly more in favour of Fact To File RSA though. People can make of that as they wish in terms of whether I have a bias, but I think the logic of the points in my post above stands. I don't think the logic necessarily stands if Inthepocket doesn't make it.

[FinalFurlong91]

Well I hope Inthepocket doesn't win the turners as I threw my bet away ages ago and can't remember where I placed it

[Eggs]

They are two very nice horses bought for Ian Barratt, who is a very nice man and also a relatively new owner to me,” said Derham.

“If they are both OK, they will both run at Cheltenham – Molly in the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle and Imagine in the Golden Miller (Turners Novices’ Chase).

[Craigy14]

Inthepocket isn’t even entered in any of the races? Would seem a bit mad to supplement him for a novice chase after 1 run and then being injured for 2 months. Surely they get a prep and go to Aintree with him where he won his Grade 1 last year.

[Odin]

Inthepocket isn’t even entered in any of the races? Would seem a bit mad to supplement him for a novice chase after 1 run and then being injured for 2 months. Surely they get a prep and go to Aintree with him where he won his Grade 1 last year.

Yep, completely missed that. Definitely would send him to Aintree rather than supplementing.. I'll stand down

[Lobos]

According to Declan Phelan today (Irish P2P expert), Inthepocket has returned into full training for over a fortnight and appears to be over the minor injury. No prep race, March depends on the work/schooling.

Wowsers. Another phoenix from the ashes. Arkle for him, Turners Iroko, F2F BANC and NHC Corbetts. JP lot sorted

.............now where did I put those Inthepocket slips...............

[TigerRolllllll]

Well I hope Inthepocket doesn't win the turners as I threw my bet away ages ago and can't remember where I placed it

Just need to remember shop & sure would be fine

[Lobos]

Inthepocket isn’t even entered in any of the races? Would seem a bit mad to supplement him for a novice chase after 1 run and then being injured for 2 months. Surely they get a prep and go to Aintree with him where he won his Grade 1 last year.

Arkle up for grabs and I'm sure JP has a spare 10k in his pocket to pay to Supplement.

[Bonjers]

Is Binocular coming back to run in the Champion Hurdle too?

[Lobos]

Is Binocular coming back to run in the Champion Hurdle too?

All we need now is Theleme, Impervious and I'll Est Francais to turn up at the Fez and we'll be sorted.

[Craigy14]

Arkle up for grabs and I'm sure JP has a spare 10k in his pocket to pay to Supplement.

Why rush him back when you can give him a prep run for Aintree was more my point.

We all know money is no issue to Jp