2024 Novice Chasers

[Lobos]

Not sure it's that outlandish. William Hills are NRNB and have 6 potential runners (3 with Mullins) ahead of him in their betting, including the two Lobos mentions.

Indeed FM. Bookies know.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Yep.
I had Minella 2pts 25-1 but cashed a couple of weeks back.
It's a terribly confused market right now and very unclear who is going to run in comparison to previous years.
Flooring Porter is kind of confirmed and I don't have him either.
I have got 6 backed though.

Willie only likely to run 2 but could easily run 3 or 4 in all the other novice races.
I personally don't think Minella is preferred in the yard for this race (NH chase), but that wouldn't stop him running in it as he is qualified and something could happen with the others.
Unless Embassy gardens flops next time out I think Willie expects him to be most suited to the race.

Not sure who's classier matters as you've got to run in it first.
And the NRNB prices are so compressed you're playing a lottery on who's going to run or not really.

Minella Cocooner doesn't look the easiest of rides to me either and if Patrick wasn't riding, I'd be slightly worried who'd be in the saddle.

[darlojim]

Not sure it's that outlandish. William Hills are NRNB and have 6 potential runners (3 with Mullins) ahead of him in their betting, including the two Lobos mentions.

Thats fair FM, but when you look at them

Embassy - To prove himself in graded races
Nick Rockett - Still needs to qual, BANC possible?
Corbetts - One im on with but unsure whether he'll stay
Porter - Don't like him at all personally, cromwell saying hurdling was an option too and now going 3m6, he has plenty of boot, doesn't excite me.
Meetingofthewaters - I think he'll go Ultima or miss the fez

[DenmanSacre]

It was only a satisfactory performance today. Not sure why they'd want to go to Cheltenham though. Doesn't he qualify for the Irish National now? Be a better target than the NHC.

[charlie]

Took 170's on Kilbeg King for the NHC on the exchange, just looks the wrong price, to put it mildly. Perhaps they've name checked the Ultima and I've missed it and done my money, but I have to chance him at that price. He's actually really unexposed for a 9yo having raced 5 times over hurdles and 3 times over fences. His hurdling career ended with a successful raid in a competitive handicap at Punchestown but chasing was always going to be his bag. He definitely wants 3m or more, certainly on breeding. His form over 3m (inc PTP) reads 21213, with that 3 being most recently in the Kauto Star Novices' Chase where he finished 3L behind Hermes Allen running to an RPR of 153 which was a career best. Everyone was watching the top two that day but he has unquestionably gone under the radar IMO. Anthony Honeyball went perilously close to winning the NHC with Ms Parfois back in 2018 and KK would go to the NHC with better credentials and a more unexposed profile than her. Most bookies go 14's so 170's is fine by me.

[Kautostar]

Not sure if it has been mentioned in here but Skelton name checked the “3mile chase at Cheltenham” as his next target for grey dawning should he decide to not run him at sandown.

[SeanRock]

I was pleasantly surprised with how settled Cocooner ran today despite the cavalry charge to the first couple of fences, he didn’t light up at all.

I knew he’d come on plenty for the Leopardstown run, he’s always taken a race to strip fit even over hurdles & had been off the track for a good stint so was entitled to be a bit fizzy lto. I think Closuttons pecking order for the NHC will be rearranged after Embassy Gardens gets found out in graded company yet again. He was pulled up in an Albert Bartlett last year & MC finished 2nd in the previous years running despite racing very keen. He had bags of class & is learning how to use that more efficiently now.

Navan took some getting today, Townend went the scenic route & he still won fairly cozy with plenty in the tank if needed imo!

[TigerRolllllll]

I was pleasantly surprised with how settled Cocooner ran today despite the cavalry charge to the first couple of fences, he didn’t light up at all.

I knew he’d come on plenty for the Leopardstown run, he’s always taken a race to strip fit even over hurdles & had been off the track for a good stint so was entitled to be a bit fizzy lto. I think Closuttons pecking order for the NHC will be rearranged after Embassy Gardens gets found out in graded company yet again. He was pulled up in an Albert Bartlett last year & MC finished 2nd in the previous years running despite racing very keen. He had bags of class & is learning how to use that more efficiently now.

Navan took some getting today, Townend went the scenic route & he still won fairly cozy with plenty in the tank if needed imo!

I’m thinking PM wants to ride MC or Rockett if gets qualified? Prob look how best options

Tho think I prefer the GE bunch possibly

[Benjy23]

I had Djelo down as an interesting each way player for the Turners but he's dropping back to 2 miles today, so maybe they see the Arkle as the easier race to try to pick up a place in. Which is probably fair enough. He's got to give the favourite 5lb today, who's rated 147, so effectively running off 152 against him. Would take a decent effort that.

He's 33s Arkle antepost or 20s NRNB. And 20s antepost or 16s NRNB for the Turners. Not sure any of them are that tempting after having a look to be fair. He's 7/2 with B365 just to win today at Lingfield. And even with a win how short is he really going to go against the Irish.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Took 170's on Kilbeg King for the NHC on the exchange, just looks the wrong price, to put it mildly. Perhaps they've name checked the Ultima and I've missed it and done my money, but I have to chance him at that price. He's actually really unexposed for a 9yo having raced 5 times over hurdles and 3 times over fences. His hurdling career ended with a successful raid in a competitive handicap at Punchestown but chasing was always going to be his bag. He definitely wants 3m or more, certainly on breeding. His form over 3m (inc PTP) reads 21213, with that 3 being most recently in the Kauto Star Novices' Chase where he finished 3L behind Hermes Allen running to an RPR of 153 which was a career best. Everyone was watching the top two that day but he has unquestionably gone under the radar IMO. Anthony Honeyball went perilously close to winning the NHC with Ms Parfois back in 2018 and KK would go to the NHC with better credentials and a more unexposed profile than her. Most bookies go 14's so 170's is fine by me.

I’ve been looking at KK nrnb for NHC, but bloody stupidly did not look on exchange!! So just managed some scraps that were left yesterday.
Still not sure if current nrnb price is worth taking, but I do think he’s a player if he turns up.
Keeping an eye on things.

[charlie]

I’ve been looking at KK nrnb for NHC, but bloody stupidly did not look on exchange!! So just managed some scraps that were left yesterday.
Still not sure if current nrnb price is worth taking, but I do think he’s a player if he turns up.
Keeping an eye on things.

Yeh I did a double take when I saw 170's. The trainer spoke out against the NHC for young novices back when it was 4 miles but KK is 9 so I think they'd be fine sending him there, especially given they had the confidence to take on IEF and HA at the very top table in a G1. Not sure I'd take 14's NRNB though as he's the sort of horse that would probably go off near enough that price on the day but triple figure odds too big to pass up. KK is entered in a valuable 3m handicap at Doncaster next weekend so my hope is he goes there, blows his mark of 142 and the trainer name checks the NHC. Not asking for much am I? Barring SAF who will go BANC, KK is actually the shortest priced British trained horse in the market and how many of those Irish fecks ahead of him would have ran HA to 3L posting an RPR of 152 in a Grade 1? I cant see many.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Yeh I did a double take when I saw 170's. The trainer spoke out against the NHC for young novices back when it was 4 miles but KK is 9 so I think they'd be fine sending him there, especially given they had the confidence to take on IEF and HA at the very top table in a G1. Not sure I'd take 14's NRNB though as he's the sort of horse that would probably go off near enough that price on the day but triple figure odds too big to pass up. KK is entered in a valuable 3m handicap at Doncaster next weekend so my hope is he goes there, blows his mark of 142 and the trainer name checks the NHC. Not asking for much am I? Barring SAF who will go BANC, KK is actually the shortest priced British trained horse in the market and how many of those Irish fecks ahead of him would have ran HA to 3L posting an RPR of 152 in a Grade 1? I cant see many.

Yeah, I suspect those above him in the market would not have finished as close to those two at Kempton as well.
I also agree with your opinion on current nrnb price.
Might be a wtaf opportunity at some point.
Whatever, he will be on side at some point.

[charlie]

Yeah, I suspect those above him in the market would not have finished as close to those two at Kempton as well.
I also agree with your opinion on current nrnb price.
Might be a wtaf opportunity at some point.
Whatever, he will be on side at some point.

Yeh he'll probably go off double figures odds. I struggle to look past the Irish in the NHC tbh but Ben Pauling, Jonjo and Alan King have won the race with Anthony Honeyball very unlucky not to win in 2018, so it is a race that throws up winners from smaller trainers, although I appreciate the general calibre of horse that runs in the race has gone up given its now they race off levels over a short distance. still think 40's on the machine in fair all things considered

[Atlantic Viking]

Ruby on RTV seems to think Embassy Gardens is going to Naas next Sunday.

[Spectre]

Ruby on RTV seems to think Embassy Gardens is going to Naas next Sunday.

I'm still yet to find anyone who can make a case for him to be the mid-150's+ chaser he's have to be to win a NH Chase. At best I'd have him at 144. If anything worthy rated in the 140's turns up at Naas there's a good chance he gets turned over. If not the hype will continue and make the price for others. He's as short as 4/1 in places for the race, which is possibly the worst antepost odds I remember seeing at the Festival.