2024 Novice Chasers

[Faugheen_Machine]

By complete luck I did this a few hours before skybet went NRNB and he's been installed at the 3/1f.

32.0 on the exchange. Get it snaffled!

[Craigy14]

By complete luck I did this a few hours before skybet went NRNB and he's been installed at the 3/1f.

I think this sort of bet is trying to second guess a bit too much do you not think Charlie? Especially doing it antepost.

His 2 best staying chasers on what we’ve seen so far are Grangeclare West and Fact To File. Then at the mid trip Gaelic Warrior is way clear of those (Fact To File aside) imo. The targets look pretty nailed on other than injury imo.
First 2 mentioned go BANC and Gaelic to the Turners. Embassy’s Gardens, Nick Rockett, Minella Cocooner and Meetingofthewaters all been mentioned by folk or connections as possible NHC horses whether it be not up to Grade 1 standard etc. I’d be very surprised if they sent their Grade 1 3m chaser to the NHC and not the BANC. I don’t think the manner of the defeat matters either at the DRF. Beat out of sight they’ll put it down to something being amiss, closely beat then 100% a rematch as the BANC is 3f further.

Adding to the above WPM will surely want a decent chance for his stable jockey in each race and GC going elsewhere doesn’t give him that. Let’s be honest I’d be 99% sure he isn’t getting the ride of Fact To File.

[Lobos]

With big doubts about G Warrior I don't think Willie will rely just on him for the Turners. He'll run at least one other who looks to hold a big chance and with PT unable to ride FTF, he'd be the obvious one.

[Lobos]

Turners.......G Warrior/FTF

BANC........G West/Nick Rockett

NHC.........EG/Meetingofthewaters

[FredFlintstone]

With big doubts about G Warrior I don't think Willie will rely just on him for the Turners. He'll run at least one other who looks to hold a big chance and with PT unable to ride FTF, he'd be the obvious one.

If FTF is impressive in the Leopardstown race. They wont run their two best novice chasers in the same race.

[Lobos]

Hermes Allen on course for Scilly Isles

[ComplyOrDie]

With big doubts about G Warrior I don't think Willie will rely just on him for the Turners. He'll run at least one other who looks to hold a big chance and with PT unable to ride FTF, he'd be the obvious one.

Having been beat over 2m this season, and the very possibility of being beat over 2m at the DRF, should he turn up there, Facile Vega would be the obvious one. Willie has made no secret about stepping him up at some point. He'll do the same with him as he did with Melon, IMO, having raced exclusively over 2m prior to the festival and step him up on the day. He'd give Gaelic a serious run too, and could well topple him too.

Obviously if he wins at the DRF then this possibility becomes very very unlikely.

[Lobos]

Having been beat over 2m this season, and the very possibility of being beat over 2m at the DRF, should he turn up there, Facile Vega would be the obvious one. Willie has made no secret about stepping him up at some point. He'll do the same with him as he did with Melon, IMO, having raced exclusively over 2m prior to the festival and step him up on the day. He'd give Gaelic a serious run too, and could well topple him too.

Obviously if he wins at the DRF then this possibility becomes very very unlikely.

Forgot about him! All gone very quiet and he isn't that popular in the DRF markets either. Perhaps they'll just stick to plan A and keep him over 2m as that's where Willie appears very limited.

[charlie]

I think this sort of bet is trying to second guess a bit too much do you not think Charlie? Especially doing it antepost.

His 2 best staying chasers on what we’ve seen so far are Grangeclare West and Fact To File. Then at the mid trip Gaelic Warrior is way clear of those (Fact To File aside) imo. The targets look pretty nailed on other than injury imo.
First 2 mentioned go BANC and Gaelic to the Turners. Embassy’s Gardens, Nick Rockett, Minella Cocooner and Meetingofthewaters all been mentioned by folk or connections as possible NHC horses whether it be not up to Grade 1 standard etc. I’d be very surprised if they sent their Grade 1 3m chaser to the NHC and not the BANC. I don’t think the manner of the defeat matters either at the DRF. Beat out of sight they’ll put it down to something being amiss, closely beat then 100% a rematch as the BANC is 3f further.

Adding to the above WPM will surely want a decent chance for his stable jockey in each race and GC going elsewhere doesn’t give him that. Let’s be honest I’d be 99% sure he isn’t getting the ride of Fact To File.

Not really pal. It's that time of year where we get one more opportunity to see Willies best and trying to read between the lines pre DRF can pay handsomely.

When was the last time Willie sent two top notchers to the BANC? I cant remember him ever doing it. He tends to either have the fav and nothing else, or a shortie and a few outsiders. Something has to give. FTF doesn't have a NHC chance entry whereas GW does. That means they want that as an option, potentially.

I think FTF looks the more impressive of the two and if he wins at the DRF I don't think they'll be in a rush to repose FTF with GW, so what do they do?

Yes, they have Embassy Gardens, Nick Rockett, Minella Cocooner or Meetingofthewaters, but if the NHC were run tomorrow do you think any of them would lay a glove on Grangeclare West? I certainly don't and if you agree, its a good bet no?

Re Jockeys, I don't think Willie would put Paul's desire to ride GW in the BANC ahead of his own sons in the NHC, but thats a highly subjective view based on nothing other than a guess.

[charlie]

Forgot about him! All gone very quiet and he isn't that popular in the DRF markets either. Perhaps they'll just stick to plan A and keep him over 2m as that's where Willie appears very limited.

Does Willie have a raging lunatic over 2m that could go off super fast to turn the Arkle into more of a staying test?

[HesTheOne]

Have Cheveley Park had a runner in the NHC chase before?

I can see both FTF and Grangeclare going to brown advisory, different owners and likely each of their best shot at the more prestigious race.

Looks like they are messing about with Corbetts Cross I don’t think they are pushing him on at all all, probably will go from NHC with intention of coming from the back and winning by a neck and another season of faffing about for the GN next year.

My idea of Mullins top 2 split below

Arkle
FV
Hunters Yarn


Turners
Gaelic Warrior
Il Etait Temps


BANC
Fact To File
Grangeclare West

NHC
Meetingofthewaters
Nick Rockett

[Lobos]

Does Willie have a raging lunatic over 2m that could go off super fast to turn the Arkle into more of a staying test?

I'm sure he has

[ComplyOrDie]

Forgot about him! All gone very quiet and he isn't that popular in the DRF markets either. Perhaps they'll just stick to plan A and keep him over 2m as that's where Willie appears very limited.

Hunters Yarn his main dart, and Il Etait Temps will likely drop back in trip. Blood Destiny could also drop back in trip. Facile Vega, the only one of the 4 that looks like he could go out in trip. 7/1 NRNB for the Turners is very very fair, I actually think, based on his Supreme 2nd, is probably one of the overpriced ones.

I know using hurdles form lines and chase form lines is sketchy at the best of times, but on a line through Il Etait Temps, and forgiving Facile Vega for his run at the DRF last season, there is very little between himself and Gaelic Warrior.

[charlie]

Have Cheveley Park had a runner in the NHC chase before?

I can see both FTF and Grangeclare going to brown advisory, different owners and likely each of their best shot at the more prestigious race.

Looks like they are messing about with Corbetts Cross I don’t think they are pushing him on at all all, probably will go from NHC with intention of coming from the back and winning by a neck and another season of faffing about for the GN next year.

My idea of Mullins top 2 split below

Arkle
FV
Hunters Yarn


Turners
Gaelic Warrior
Il Etait Temps


BANC
Fact To File
Grangeclare West

NHC
Meetingofthewaters
Nick Rockett

CPS don't really mind where there horses run over fences. I remember their director of racing missed the first few days of the festival last year (or year before) because he wanted to tend to flat breeding operations - they let Willie do what he wants.

The issue with your squad splitting is FTF and GW are both much better than the two in the NHC and we know Willie splits his aces.

Nick Rockett isn't qualified for the NHC (yet) and Meetingofthewaters could start now and not beat GW IMO.

I dont want to dig in to much on this and did say in my OP its risky and unlikely, just saying I can see the case why GW going to NHC has a degree of sense with a view to maximising cheltenham winners. Dont forget, Willie needs 7 more winners to surpass the magic 100 at cheltenham so why not split the top 3 milers, especially if they think FTF is a tool.

[Quevega]

CPS don't really mind where there horses run over fences. I remember their director of racing missed the first few days of the festival last year (or year before) because he wanted to tend to flat breeding operations - they let Willie do what he wants.

The issue with your squad splitting is FTF and GW are both much better than the two in the NHC and we know Willie splits his aces.

Nick Rockett isn't qualified for the NHC (yet) and Meetingofthewaters could start now and not beat GW IMO.

I dont want to dig in to much on this and did say in my OP its risky and unlikely, just saying I can see the case why GW going to NHC has a degree of sense with a view to maximising cheltenham winners. Dont forget, Willie needs 7 more winners to surpass the magic 100 at cheltenham so why not split the top 3 milers, especially if they think FTF is a tool.

I think it makes a lot of sense, as the likely Favourite without Grangeclare West in the race is Corbetts Cross. (who he's beaten twice)
So if he is beaten reasonably comfortably then the NH chase for Grangeclare West really does come into the equation. He'd have a Favourites chance in that.
I wouldn't have backed it now though.

I will cover this outcome myself once the decs are out for Dublin, with one of those fancy doubles, i'e Fact to File win in Dublin & G West for the NH chase.