2024 Novice Chasers

[Lobos]

Willie really has nothing to lose running gaelic in that race

Finishing 2nd to marine nationale still leaves him well clear in the turner's

He beats marine nationale he's arkle fav and already beaten the only real opposition

Think the only reason they'll be running him at DRF is to test him going LH as a chaser. Going for the 2m chase there seems logical in that respect. Even if he beats MN he may still go Turners at the Festival. That's my thinking anyway.

[Carnage at Taunton]

GW going 2m left handed….be entertaining!!

[Carnage at Taunton]

Just had a bit more on Hermes Allen nrnb for both BANC and Turners, think they are still good value prices.
I have a feeling his run behind IEF is as good as any performance from a British novice this season.
Big player if he goes to Cheltenham imo

[charlie]

Just had a bit more on Hermes Allen nrnb for both BANC and Turners, think they are still good value prices.
I have a feeling his run behind IEF is as good as any performance from a British novice this season.
Big player if he goes to Cheltenham imo

Risky IMO for the following reasons.

PN could easily wait for Aintree (suppose there is NRMB)
He has multiple options at the festival (aintree would suit him much better)
He'd be massively disadvantaged by soft ground (ties in to the above)
He was comprehensively beaten as a favourite by the Irish twice last year (he's clearly a much better chaser though)
Is the form that good? He's ultimately beaten Kilbeg King 3 lengths and Nickle Back 6L (how would the Irish get on vs those two?)
He had a really hard race at Kempton

Agree it's probably the best novice performance this side of the Irish Sea, just not sure how much that amounts to. One thing I am sure of thought is the Turners will cut up big times so if you've taken 14's and he does end up there you'll almost certainly have a slip worth holding on to and 14/1 is fair, even considering all the above.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Just had a bit more on Hermes Allen nrnb for both BANC and Turners, think they are still good value prices.
I have a feeling his run behind IEF is as good as any performance from a British novice this season.
Big player if he goes to Cheltenham imo

I think he's a great bet for the Turners at 12/1 NRNB. Not a million miles behind the best novice chaser we've seen for a few years, and Gaelic Warrior is very beatable at Cheltenham, as we've seen in the last two years.

12/1 should beat the SP by a fair bit (unless Il Est francais turns up!).

[Carnage at Taunton]

Risky IMO for the following reasons.

PN could easily wait for Aintree (suppose there is NRMB)
He has multiple options at the festival (aintree would suit him much better)
He'd be massively disadvantaged by soft ground (ties in to the above)
He was comprehensively beaten as a favourite by the Irish twice last year (he's clearly a much better chaser though)
Is the form that good? He's ultimately beaten Kilbeg King 3 lengths and Nickle Back 6L (how would the Irish get on vs those two?)
He had a really hard race at Kempton

Agree it's probably the best novice performance this side of the Irish Sea, just not sure how much that amounts to. One thing I am sure of thought is the Turners will cut up big times so if you've taken 14's and he does end up there you'll almost certainly have a slip worth holding on to and 14/1 is fair, even considering all the above.

Well it’s only risky if he runs at the festival.
So is most other bets on a horse that runs there.
At current nrnb prices I believe they are bigger than they will be in either race he turns up in.

As re his run at Kempton, he was the only one that attempted to go with what I consider to be the most impressive novice staying chaser I’ve seen for some time, and ultimately paid the price. The fact he still finished the way he did imo is to be looked at as a positive to his ability.
Hes a lot better than the distance to the third imo.

Not at all concerned with his hurdles form.
He’s a natural chaser and a good jumper.

Yes he’s got a host of Irish potential opponents,nowt unusual there!! But I’m happy with having him on side if he turns up in either race.

[Runragged]

I think he's a great bet for the Turners at 12/1 NRNB. Not a million miles behind the best novice chaser we've seen for a few years, and Gaelic Warrior is very beatable at Cheltenham, as we've seen in the last two years.

12/1 should beat the SP by a fair bit (unless Il Est francais turns up!).

Anyone that rates Hermes Allen must also consider Kilbeg King a handicap 'good thing' off a mark of 142 having finished just 3 1/2 lengths behind him. He has a couple of entries this weekend in handicaps including the Peter Marsh, plus an entry in the Great Yorkshire Handicap the following weekend, suggesting he is fit and ready to race soon. Well worth a double up into Hermes Allen when he does run as a related bet.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I think he's a great bet for the Turners at 12/1 NRNB. Not a million miles behind the best novice chaser we've seen for a few years, and Gaelic Warrior is very beatable at Cheltenham, as we've seen in the last two years.

12/1 should beat the SP by a fair bit (unless Il Est francais turns up!).

Yep, if you look at the current betting for Turners it’s pretty clear to me he’s single figure odds on the day if he turns up fit and well.

[ComplyOrDie]

I think he's a great bet for the Turners at 12/1 NRNB. Not a million miles behind the best novice chaser we've seen for a few years, and Gaelic Warrior is very beatable at Cheltenham, as we've seen in the last two years.

This is why I think Willie may chuck Facile Vega or Fact To File in the race too. Would he rely on Gaelic Warrior at Cheltenham? I can't imagine so. If either of the other two turn up I think they could give Gaelic a real run for his money. I'd be more favourable of Facile Vega being the one, just because I can't see the logic of turning up against Marine Nationale again, and if he's beat by that one at the DRF then there really is no point, so a re-route to the Turners would be logical.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Anyone that rates Hermes Allen must also consider Kilbeg King a handicap 'good thing' off a mark of 142 having finished just 3 1/2 lengths behind him. He has a couple of entries this weekend in handicaps including the Peter Marsh, plus an entry in the Great Yorkshire Handicap the following weekend, suggesting he is fit and ready to race soon. Well worth a double up into Hermes Allen when he does run as a related bet.

The problem with that bet is he could blow that mark if they intend to run in the next couple of weeks.

[Faugheen_Machine]

This is why I think Willie may chuck Facile Vega or Fact To File in the race too. Would he rely on Gaelic Warrior at Cheltenham? I can't imagine so. If either of the other two turn up I think they could give Gaelic a real run for his money. I'd be more favourable of Facile Vega being the one, just because I can't see the logic of turning up against Marine Nationale again, and if he's beat by that one at the DRF then there really is no point, so a re-route to the Turners would be logical.

I'm probably in the minority that thinks they'll stick to 2 miles with Facile Vega. It wasn't the trip that beat him over Christmas - he wouldn't have won over any distance.

He's a much better horse on soft ground and the chances of Facile Vega getting soft ground at the festival is probably at it's greatest on day 1, imo.

[Runragged]

The problem with that bet is he could blow that mark if they intend to run in the next couple of weeks.

Double him with the race this weekend. I have backed Kilbeg King for the Ultima as he fits the profile of a well handicapped British Novice which has a good record in the race. However, the horse has no affinity with Cheltenham, no course form, so it wouldn't surprise me if he targeted one of these races instead. The yard is in good form and won the Veteran Chase last weekend with Sam Brown. Just do a double on Kilbeg King to win whatever it is declared for, into Hermes Allen for whichever race you prefer, if not both if doing with William Hill.

My concern with Kilbeg King is he may be better right handed. His top 3 RPRs have all come on right handed tracks and though he is entered at Ascot this weekend, that is dropping back to 2m 5f, whether that is enough of a test is the question as he was staying on fine at Kempton over 3m and won over just shy of 3m at Punchestown over hurdles.

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm probably in the minority that thinks they'll stick to 2 miles with Facile Vega. It wasn't the trip that beat him over Christmas - he wouldn't have won over any distance.

He's a much better horse on soft ground and the chances of Facile Vega getting soft ground at the festival is probably at it's greatest on day 1, imo.

Yeah, I mean, I'm of the opposite opinion that he just needs further. It may be they stick down the 2m route, and get done by Marine Nationale again, that's up to them, but IF he's beat at the DRF by MN I just can't see why they'd stick at 2m.

[Exar Essay]

Anyone that rates Hermes Allen must also consider Kilbeg King a handicap 'good thing' off a mark of 142 having finished just 3 1/2 lengths behind him. He has a couple of entries this weekend in handicaps including the Peter Marsh, plus an entry in the Great Yorkshire Handicap the following weekend, suggesting he is fit and ready to race soon. Well worth a double up into Hermes Allen when he does run as a related bet.

The thing I would say here is that Hermes Allen was ridden to win the race whereas Kilbeg King wasn't. Hermes was trying to go with Il Est Francais at a speed which was probably 1mph too quick for him which is why I was so surprised he actually saw out his race and didn't fall in a heap. Pure conjecture on my part, but I'd suggest that if Il Est Francais wasn't in the race, Hermes Allen would've made all setting his own fractions, but at a slower pace, and would've won by a significantly greater distance than 3 1/2 lengths.

[Carnage at Taunton]

The thing I would say here is that Hermes Allen was ridden to win the race whereas Kilbeg King wasn't. Hermes was trying to go with Il Est Francais at a speed which was probably 1mph too quick for him which is why I was so surprised he actually saw out his race and didn't fall in a heap. Pure conjecture on my part, but I'd suggest that if Il Est Francais wasn't in the race, Hermes Allen would've made all setting his own fractions, but at a slower pace, and would've won by a significantly greater distance than 3 1/2 lengths.

Absolutely agree with that
Could not be put any better imo