2024 Novice Chasers

[nortonscoin200]

Surprised there's been no mention of GINNY'S DESTINY in the discussion on Grey Dawning.

Ginny's Destiny jumped like a stag and beat Grey Dawning (gave 3lbs) by 3/4l over the mid trip at Cheltenham barely a month ago - his second course win in succession - yet he's still a 33-1 shot and 16-1nrnb.

I know this is a minority view but I'd expect the Nicholls horse to come out on top if they meet in the Turners because his jumping is so much better.

Ginny's Destiny could instead go for the Plate (current mark 146) where he's a general 20-1 and 14-1nrnb.

Horses on 146 carried 11st 3lbs the last 2 years and 11st 4lbs the year before that.

The race has been won three times in the last 6 years by horses carrying between 11st 2lbs and 11st 4lbs.

The horse has obviously improved since switching to Nicholls this season and it's a tad unusual for one of his who is proven round Cheltenham to be overlooked in the market, imo.

[Kevloaf]

Surprised there's been no mention of GINNY'S DESTINY in the discussion on Grey Dawning.

Ginny's Destiny jumped like a stag and beat Grey Dawning (gave 3lbs) by 3/4l over the mid trip at Cheltenham barely a month ago - his second course win in succession - yet he's still a 33-1 shot and 16-1nrnb.

I know this is a minority view but I'd expect the Nicholls horse to come out on top if they meet in the Turners because his jumping is so much better.

Ginny's Destiny could instead go for the Plate (current mark 146) where he's a general 20-1 and 14-1nrnb.

Horses on 146 carried 11st 3lbs the last 2 years and 11st 4lbs the year before that.

The race has been won three times in the last 6 years by horses carrying between 11st 2lbs and 11st 4lbs.

The horse has obviously improved since switching to Nicholls this season and it's a tad unusual for one of his who is proven round Cheltenham to be overlooked in the market, imo.

Definitely interesting for the handicap, without checking, I'm pretty sure Grey Dawning made a bad error that cost him the race?

[Lobos]

Definitely interesting for the handicap, without checking, I'm pretty sure Grey Dawning made a bad error that cost him the race?

Yep. Really bad one second last. Would have won without that mistake.

[Kevloaf]

Yep. Really bad one second last. Would have won without that mistake.

Maybe a nice related double closer to the time then?

nortonscoin200?

[Speedy17]

I'm also really Keen on Ginny's Destiny for the Plate, his mark is fine, I'm going to guess Nicholls might run him on trials day in the Novice Handicap Chase, the race Stage Star won last year, and if he were to win that he may blow his mark and go Turners... He could be an Ew Player in the Turners too though.

[Lobos]

Regarding any backers of Nicks Rockett for the NHC. Be aware he's not yet run over the qualifying distance. He's entered in the 2m 5f chase at the DRF and if he runs in that and doesn't run before in a race of 2m 7 1/2f+ then it's highly unlikely he'll not be going to the NHC.

Re potential Q races as per Saxon Warrior.....

There's very few races left to qualify in Ireland now.
3 or 4 at most

There's a 3M BeginCH at Navan next Saturday 20th.

Entries for that won't come out until Tuesday, after NHC Early Entries have closed.

There's the 3M Grade 3 NovCH on 28th Jan at Naas
I believe Embassy Gardens is headed there, for his 2nd Chase (Willie could run more than one)

Finally There's the 3M Grade 2, Ten Up NovCH on 11th Feb Navan

There's a 4th one, 18th Feb at Punchestown that may or may not qualify on distance.

Its listed in the HRI Provisional Summary as 23F BeginCH, and I've looked up last seasons meeting and there wasn't a race over that trip ran at the meeting last season.

So whether it's too short for NHC qualification and exactly 2M7F, or enough to qualify at 2M7.5F, I cant be sure.

Thats all Ireland have for Embassy Gardens, Nick Rockett, Minella Cocooner, Affordale Fury etc have to get NHC qualified.

Any of those affected that get an Early Entry for the NHC on Tuesday then youd hope that they would be trying to meet any outstanding qualifying criteria in their next racecourse start.

[Lobos]

Corals 20's now been gobbled up on Hunters Yarn. Cut into 14's with them.

[nortonscoin200]

Definitely interesting for the handicap, without checking, I'm pretty sure Grey Dawning made a bad error that cost him the race?

That's one way of looking at it - and I'm sure most will agree with that scenario.

But it's worth watching the replay because although Grey Dawning didn't make any serious errors until two out, his jumping was sometimes deliberate and not wholly convincing.

It cost him a bit of ground at several fences and it wasn't a massive surprise that when the pressure was on his jumping fell apart and "cost him the race".

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm not completely convinced by Grey Dawning. I haven't backed Apple Away for the festival either, but to me herself & Broadway Boy got into a bit of a battle for the lead and both horses went for it way too early on, IMO, ultimately cutting each others throats. The horse that was cleverly ridden was Grey Dawning, Harry let them get on with it and kudos to him for doing so. I'm not sure he'll be the only riding cleverly at the festival if two go hammer and tong up front and therefore would have doubts him being able to replicate such a visually impressive performance.

It's now the second time Apple Away has been beat by Grey Dawning, again though, the first time, she disputed the lead with Gaillard Du Mensil initially that day, but was ultimately not very good on the day anyway, not to mention Grey Dawning had already had a run, she had not. I'm not convinced she wants a staying trip but do think she could become a threat to all in the Mares Chase, if that's the way connections wish to go.

Grey Dawning has barely put a foot wrong, but I have niggly doubts, I don't know if I just feel the Irish will be stronger, or that he has to reverse form with Stay Away Fay, or even that it's because he's trained by Dan Skelton (probably a bit harsh, as I do like him as a trainer), who has yet to have an open G1 festival winner (mares aside, where Roksana fell in because Benie fell), I don't know, but the doubts are there.

[Runragged]

As a big advocate of Grey Dawning, I would be more concerned in the Turners, to the point I haven't backed him for the race, only the BANC. His jumping just didn't impress me when beaten by Ginnys Destiny, as nortonscoin200 says above, it was cautious and lacked fluency. He looked in need of stepping up in trip where jumping at a slower pace certainly suited. Might see different next time when due to run over 2 1/2m again, but I need convincing if he can jump well enough to win a Turners. He can definitely win the BANC though, with the amount this horse has improved then I don't see anything Stay Away Fay has done that will cause any problems. Yes, he is gutsy, but Grangeclare West and Grey Dawning would be too quick for him in a finish. Certainly SAF would have to be leading the pair over the last and I don't see him being in that position. Getting ahead of myself again though and we have already been here once before!

[TigerRolllllll]

GD sems to have had a lot of races this year....sounds like they plan a 5th pre Chelt

Is this a concern? Think if Chelt was the priority, then they would not run again?

[Runragged]

GD sems to have had a lot of races this year....sounds like they plan a 5th pre Chelt

Is this a concern? Think if Chelt was the priority, then they would not run again?

Slightly contradictory from my previous arguments but Presenting Percy, Blaklion and Lord Windermere all ran 5 times in the season prior to winning. More recently, L'Homme Presse had 4 runs in the season. Think it is a 5 1/2 week break between Sciliy Isles and Cheltenham. Blaklion also took in Aintree where he was 3rd to Native River.

[AaronLad]

Il est francais to be given surprise turners entry tomorrow

[riccirich]

Il est francais to be given surprise turners entry tomorrow

Can you see the full story? Just keeping options open or does it say there's a good chance it could happen?

[That Horse]

Can you see the full story? Just keeping options open or does it say there's a good chance it could happen?

Read it just now, entered as a precaution and likely won't go. If it turned out to be a weak race, that could change their minds. He's come back from a break in rude health.
Referenced the joint agreement between the owners that french gold cup is prioritised this year with Cheltenham gold cup in 2025.

As you were.