2024 Novice Chasers

[BookieBasher]

It’s not my bag but Three Card Brag is a must have for anyone building a book. He’s a big dour yoke races behind the bridle & needs every yard of 3m6f.


Gordon will be struggling for top amateur jocks at this stage with Ziggy, FDC & this fella all being targeted at the race. Cullentra NHC & XC double should be a safe double!

I’m starting to have my doubts about Ziggy lining up in March. Since his American National run I have a feeling alls not entirely well with him hence why first Favori and now TCB being name checked for the race. Can’t for the life of me see all 3 running

[HoldenTheReins]

I’m starting to have my doubts about Ziggy lining up in March. Since his American National run I have a feeling alls not entirely well with him hence why first Favori and now TCB being name checked for the race. Can’t for the life of me see all 3 running

I suppose he could go to a handicap

[ComplyOrDie]

I’m starting to have my doubts about Ziggy lining up in March. Since his American National run I have a feeling alls not entirely well with him hence why first Favori and now TCB being name checked for the race. Can’t for the life of me see all 3 running

He's been fairly uneasy on the exchanges too, that said, with more and more potential rivals coming out and running well that was always going to happen, especially as his last race was a big flop!

[FinalFurlong91]

I'm hesitant to add the likes of three card brag and favori de champdou with the proximity to the Irish national

I just know the one I pick will end up at fairyhouse

[HesTheOne]

He's been fairly uneasy on the exchanges too, that said, with more and more potential rivals coming out and running well that was always going to happen, especially as his last race was a big flop!

Was there something floating around at the time that he did not take well to whatever he was injected with over in the US. Forget the name of the exact substance but its legal over there and the whole field would have been on it, Ziggy was no exception.

[Runragged]

Was there something floating around at the time that he did not take well to whatever he was injected with over in the US. Forget the name of the exact substance but its legal over there and the whole field would have been on it, Ziggy was no exception.

Ruby on Road to Cheltenham suggested that may of been the case, though nothing has been confirmed as such. Only update I had read was that he was on a winter break.

[Runragged]

Grey Dawning 156 RPR compared with Broadway Boy 155. Both compare favourably with Stay Away Fay best of 151, though they have had 3 and 4 chase starts respectively compared to the 2 of SAF.

[Black Dog]

Grey Dawning 156 RPR compared with Broadway Boy 155. Both compare favourably with Stay Away Fay best of 151, though they have had 3 and 4 chase starts respectively compared to the 2 of SAF.

Do you know what they gave Apple Away.

[Quevega]

143...........

[AaronLad]

Grey Dawning 156 RPR compared with Broadway Boy 155. Both compare favourably with Stay Away Fay best of 151, though they have had 3 and 4 chase starts respectively compared to the 2 of SAF.

Do you agree with grey dawnings rpr? I have it rated considerably lower

[Exar Essay]

Grey Dawning 156 RPR compared with Broadway Boy 155. Both compare favourably with Stay Away Fay best of 151, though they have had 3 and 4 chase starts respectively compared to the 2 of SAF.

I like RPR's. They are a useful statistic and provide some interesting discussion points. But, in my view, it is madness that they think that performance was a whole stone better than his Haydock defeat of GDM and Apple Away.

AaronLad I agree. I would have it at 145 at the most.

[AaronLad]

I like RPR's. They are a useful statistic and provide some interesting discussion points. But, in my view, it is madness that they think that performance was a whole stone better than his Haydock defeat of GDM and Apple Away.

Me too fwiw

[AaronLad]

AaronLad I agree. I would have it at 145 at the most.

this is how i have the race rated

Ginny destiny 147, didn't agree with his rpr 1st time up but i'm now inclined to believe he has run to that level on 2nd chase
Grey dawning 149, gave the winner 3lb while beaten a length (rounded up)
Trelawne 143, Beaten 4 lengths, current OR 143
crebilly 136 Beaten 6 lengths, received 5lbs from winner
Tritonic 129 Hasn't run up to debut chase performance

[Runragged]

I like RPR's. They are a useful statistic and provide some interesting discussion points. But, in my view, it is madness that they think that performance was a whole stone better than his Haydock defeat of GDM and Apple Away.

AaronLad I agree. I would have it at 145 at the most.

I think it is fair enough. It was clearly better than a 145 unless you think the 1st, 3rd and 4th all ran below what they had produced on their last run.

If we assume the first four have run to somewhere close to their true form:

4th Crebilly - Won when last seen over hurdles with a career best RPR of 136 (Progressive and unexposed over hurdles). Fell on first start over fences when still travelling behind Ginnys Destiny and given an RPR of 146 & OR of 139.

3rd Trelawne - Lightly raced over hurdles but had won his last two with increasing RPRs, culminating in a 140 (Again progressive and unexposed). Won a handicap on chase debut off a mark of 136 getting an RPR of 146 and OR 143.

1st Ginnys Destiny - More exposed over hurdles with a RPR high of 136. However, had won his previous start in a handicap off a mark of 133 and given an RPR of 147 and on official rating of 141.

If Grey Dawning had run to a 145 then that means Ginnys Destiny has 142, Trelawne 137 and Crebilly 133, 5lb, 9lb and 13lb below what they had all achieved on their last start.

The assumption would therefore be that with the weight allowances as well that Trelawne has marginally improved from his win, probably from running against a higher standard of opposition. Crebilly has run slightly below par, possibly wanting a confidence building run following his fall last time out and Ginnys Destiny is progressive over fences and has improved again, jumping immaculately. Considering Grey Dawning was carrying 3lb more than the first and was beat less than a length then he should be rated 3lb higher and the 'moral' victor of the race.

That would be my take on it.

[Black Dog]

143...........

Cheers, with the 7lbs allowance, they rate her 1lb behind the favourite then. It all has a very open feel about it this season so far .