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The respective goings at limerick and leopardstown will probably have a significant impact on where they run. Probably going to be some very small fields
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Just to start a discussion to challenge our thinking a bit ….
Are we in danger of ignoring high class older horses?
General rule, which most of this thread echoes is that proper novices win the novice chases
BUT - that history is based largely on poorer quality older horses …..not festival winners……and last time we had similar profile horses, they finished 1-2 in the Turners
Changing discipline often reinvigorates horses …a new exciting challenge so they enjoy exercising again ….look at what XC does !
This year we have Flooring Porter, Klassical Dream & Sharjah…..serious G1 horses….and all have jumped well
Actually best RPRs to date are Sharjah, who started with a 152 first time over fences …usually winners start least in mid 140s…..more I think for Arkle
Just putting this up to challenge some of our thinking a bit ….tbh I’m undecided on them & which race they go….,tho have them at low level in book
Interested in thoughts ??? Are we overlooking obvious?Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)Comment
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I’m willing to take my chances and ignore them unless they run in the NH chase then I’d possibly be interested in klassical dream or flooring porter. I’m of the opinion good improving younger legs will nearly always beat older regressive legs when it comes to the big days.Originally posted by TigerRolllllll View PostComment
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Timeform have given Gaelic Warrior a 154p, 2 pounds less than Letsbeclearaboutit.
Favori de Champdou given a 152p.
Klassical Dream a 147P.
Matata has been mentioned a few pages ago and is 149p. One for the Sandown grade 1.
Found a Fifty 148p.
Facile Vega 149P.
Mister Policeman 140P (that's a very generous big P)
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Not saying I disagree…..just a concern that the same comments were on forum couple years ago re Faugheen & Samcro…..and then they went 1-2 in March…And that was Samcro !Originally posted by Kautostar View Post
They are backable at 20s ….and just asking us the questionFat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)Comment
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Don't forget Melon,also in same category.Originally posted by TigerRolllllll View Post
1st Samcro
2nd Melon
3rd Faugheen
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'Mister Policeman 140P (that's a very generous big P)'
Is it though
He is very inexperienced/Raw and was basically learning on the job. He clearly blows everyone away at home but has yet to transfer that confidence to the course. I do hope next time they give him his head and let him bowl along in front and see what he can do.Comment
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Wow….,how could I do that …..def makes the point then even moreOriginally posted by Quevega View Post
All this year 20-1 at mo and run some of best races so far ….and we all said same then as we are now
Ive decided I don’t want egg on face again….specially on horses I want to cheer, so they are now in book
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)Comment
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Lots prices in Browns seem to shortening ?
GW still shown too…..had thought maybe him given exchange movesFat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)Comment
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Samcro and Melon were both 8yr olds though after an extra year hurdling so they’re only slightly older than your standard novice chase winners but still aren’t in their declining years. Flooring porter will be 9, klassical dream 10 and Sharjah 11 by the time the races are run.Originally posted by TigerRolllllll View PostComment
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Samcro was only 8yo though. Sorry a bit late there.Comment
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Klassical dream no longer quoted for BANC with some bookiesComment
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Think it’s just oddscheckerOriginally posted by Guinness Village View Post
All horses seem to have shortened thoFat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)Comment
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In my opinion older horses are likely to impress more at the beginning of a season as they are more experienced than those that have had just one season in hurdles. They are used to competing at a much higher grade before then thrown in against a wide range of abilities and lack of experience. By the time we get to Cheltenham then the inexperienced novices have had time to gain that experience and chances are they have competed against horses of a higher ability. To me that would explain why the horses you have quoted have managed to perform to a high level on their chasing debuts. Whether they can improve enough on them compared to the younger novices is debateable and what we are all discussing. You could argue though that the betting already factors in a horses age and that the bookmakers are underestimating them. Of the three you mentioned, both Flooring Porter and Sharjahs form in the last season or two was regressive according to RPRs, however, Klassical Dream had matched his RPR best in the Hatton's Grace last year on seasonal debut, suggesting his ability remains even if his season tailed off according to RPRs (Though still won a grade 1). Considering how well he jumped then he would be the 'older' horse who would interest me most, but then also his best form has come after a long absence. Would they go one run at Xmas then straight to Cheltenham?Originally posted by TigerRolllllll View Post
The Turners example that is referred to was a pretty weak race at the time (When looking at younger horses coming straight from 1 season over hurdles). The British horses lacked grade 1 class and the best of those according to the betting was Itchy Feet who unseated and has now turned back to hurdling. The shortest priced Irish horse that was aged younger than 8 was Tornado Flyer at 10/1 who went in to the race on the back of Pulling Up injured and finishing over 6 lengths behind Faugheen at the DRF. That's not to say that any of the novice races could end up like that (Injuries and targets could easily change).Comment
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