2024 Novice Chasers

[Black Dog]

A self proclaimed gambling genius. sure

Giovinco looks an interesting shout, Apple Away definitely does not.

Why Don't you like the mare Charlie? She looked very progressive last season and has schooled well over fences according to the stable tour. Her Sefton form couldn't be working out better with six individual winners behind her that day. I've only backed her for the BANC but would give her a chance in the NHC or one of the handicaps at 3 miles.

[Runragged]

Why Don't you like the mare Charlie? She looked very progressive last season and has schooled well over fences according to the stable tour. Her Sefton form couldn't be working out better with six individual winners behind her that day. I've only backed her for the BANC but would give her a chance in the NHC or one of the handicaps at 3 miles.

Wondered the same considering the progressive profile and form of the Sefton. Unlikely she would go handicapping considering she gets the mares allowance in graded races. Why I have said all along that Giovinco will be going the handicap route with his win the other day confirming my suspicions for now. I am already invested on AA but I am worried whether she will be quick enough over fences for a BANC and also the concern of a mare winning a graded novice at the Festival, despite the 7lb allowance. When was the last time the BANC was won by a mare? Admitedly I doubt there has been many with a serious chance take part either from memory (Or lack of).

[Black Dog]

Can only remember Brief Gale winning for the Mares,but not many have tried. I like her for the BANC especially if it comes up soft.

[charlie]

Why Don't you like the mare Charlie? She looked very progressive last season and has schooled well over fences according to the stable tour. Her Sefton form couldn't be working out better with six individual winners behind her that day. I've only backed her for the BANC but would give her a chance in the NHC or one of the handicaps at 3 miles.

How long have you got?

I don't think she'll be anywhere near good enough to win a Grade 1 over fences at Cheltenham.

Ran to a bang average level in PTP's before being sold for a modest sum which makes sense because on paper her breeding is rubbish.

Spent a season beating absolute dross before taking advantage of horses who'd had tough races at Cheltenham.

Yes, she's a grade 1 winner but she ran to an RPR that was so poor it was not dissimilar to the horse that finished 15L back in 3rd when Ahoy Se?or romped home two years previously. Granted, she's run to steadily progressive RPR's of 105, 115, 122 and 129, culminating in a Grade 1 and 143 so she has an upwardly progressive profile, but i'm extremely weary of Aintree form.

I cannot believe she's as low as 14's for the BANC. I'd genuinely pause for thought at 50's.

[Black Dog]

Fair enough mate,but I won't be cashing out as her rapid progress when upped to 3miles was very taking imo. I'm only at a basic level on the breeding side of things but I can see the strength of her form at Aintree with some very decent animals behind. A rpr of 143 with the 7lbs gives a nice starting point of 150 . I'm hopeful rather than confident and agree the price is skinny now,but I'm looking forward to seeing her in what is beginning to look a very competitive division.

[Runragged]

How long have you got?

I don't think she'll be anywhere near good enough to win a Grade 1 over fences at Cheltenham.

Ran to a bang average level in PTP's before being sold for a modest sum which makes sense because on paper her breeding is rubbish.

Spent a season beating absolute dross before taking advantage of horses who'd had tough races at Cheltenham.

Yes, she's a grade 1 winner but she ran to an RPR that was so poor it was not dissimilar to the horse that finished 15L back in 3rd when Ahoy Se?or romped home two years previously. Granted, she's run to steadily progressive RPR's of 105, 115, 122 and 129, culminating in a Grade 1 and 143 so she has an upwardly progressive profile, but i'm extremely weary of Aintree form.

I cannot believe she's as low as 14's for the BANC. I'd genuinely pause for thought at 50's.

The runner up at Aintree skipped Cheltenham but had previously beaten Stay Away Fay at Doncaster. Iroko obviously won the Martin Pipe and his RPR increased by 2lb for the Aintree run, not suggesting he was feeling the effects of Cheltenham. Stay Away Fay RPR did drop 5lb from the two but considering Maximilian finished 1 length in front at Doncaster and 2 3/4 lengths at Aintree then the drop off was minimal (Just a case of different track/ground/day).

As Black Dog says, with the mares allowance then she doesn't need to be as good as the boys, just within half a stone and that's to be competitive. She is expected to improve for fences and if she does then she is entitled to be there. I agree 14/1 is short considering we haven't seen her yet and her first run has been delayed twice. Iroko has already run and blown a field away yet is a similar price. However, Apple Away has been put up by a couple of tipsters (Definitely Andy Holding at 20/1 as he sat on the fence and gave both AA and Giovinco) which is probably why her price has contracted a little.

[Kevloaf]

There is a bit of a narrative that Lucinda Russell is all of a sudden part of a major training operation

Prestbury Cup on the move?


Let's face it, they'll be a fair price on the day even if they had the best form .... an Irish trainer will have the fav in all the novice chases..... so if you do fancy and believe this narrative, I'm not sure anyone needs to get that trigger happy ante-post

[ComplyOrDie]

There is a bit of a narrative that Lucinda Russell is all of a sudden part of a major training operation

Major is pushing it, but she's definitely made a move to send horses to the festival with real chances the last couple of seasons, whilst not the quantities of some of the big trainers she seems to be doing well with what she has. Two Ultima's in the last two seasons, a RSA 2nd, and festival aside she's had 2 of the last 6 Grand National winners, she's certainly sure of what she's doing with staying chasers, at the very least. That all said, as you note, the Irish will be the force for the novice chases, as they always are, so price wise, you should still get a price, though Ahoy Senor went off 4/1 second fav, for the RSA in 2022, with another British trained, L'homme Presse, going off fav.

[Istabraq]

Prestbury Cup on the move?

You can still get 6/1 UK with me Kev....

[FinalFurlong91]

Major is pushing it, but she's definitely made a move to send horses to the festival with real chances the last couple of seasons, whilst not the quantities of some of the big trainers she seems to be doing well with what she has. Two Ultima's in the last two seasons, a RSA 2nd, and festival aside she's had 2 of the last 6 Grand National winners, she's certainly sure of what she's doing with staying chasers, at the very least. That all said, as you note, the Irish will be the force for the novice chases, as they always are, so price wise, you should still get a price, though Ahoy Senor went off 4/1 second fav, for the RSA in 2022, with another British trained, L'homme Presse, going off fav.

Not sure the Irish are quite the novice chase force you are making out

Last 5 years
Arkle 2 to britain 3 to ireland
Turner's 4 to Britain 1 to Ireland
banc 4 to britain 1 to Ireland

So it's 10-5 to britain over the last 5 festivals despite the irish dominance in the novice hurdles

[HesTheOne]

Major is pushing it, but she's definitely made a move to send horses to the festival with real chances the last couple of seasons, whilst not the quantities of some of the big trainers she seems to be doing well with what she has. Two Ultima's in the last two seasons, a RSA 2nd, and festival aside she's had 2 of the last 6 Grand National winners, she's certainly sure of what she's doing with staying chasers, at the very least. That all said, as you note, the Irish will be the force for the novice chases, as they always are, so price wise, you should still get a price, though Ahoy Senor went off 4/1 second fav, for the RSA in 2022, with another British trained, L'homme Presse, going off fav.

Yea that is the angle in itself she can produce super staying chasers and ought to be considered in that retrospect. You wouldn’t be going balls deep on any of her runners this far out but they are close to the top when you are looking for covers against the main alternatives in the brown advisory.

Surely get double figures on the mare very close to March if she is a still contender.

[ComplyOrDie]

Not sure the Irish are quite the novice chase force you are making out

Last 5 years
Arkle 2 to britain 3 to ireland
Turner's 4 to Britain 1 to Ireland
banc 4 to britain 1 to Ireland

So it's 10-5 to britain over the last 5 festivals despite the irish dominance in the novice hurdles

Sorry, I meant from a price stand point, unless they are up against a Henderson horse, they generally take up the majority of the tops of the markets (I've not factually checked, so I could be wrong).

Also you forgot the NH Chase which brings it to 11-9

[Quevega]

Not sure the Irish are quite the novice chase force you are making out

Last 5 years
Arkle 2 to britain 3 to ireland
Turner's 4 to Britain 1 to Ireland
banc 4 to britain 1 to Ireland

So it's 10-5 to britain over the last 5 festivals despite the irish dominance in the novice hurdles

was quoting similar stuff last season to the real wanker brigade and this year it looks even better for the brits.

The funny thing is though is the markets haven't caught up and so some of the Irish supporters have a point in needing to get the Irish challengers on side earlier and the UK lot can be left longer.
This also makes sense as the UK winners are not always easy to spot early on whereas the Irish are easier given their novice hurdle dominance.

I think this is why myself and many others though Stay Away Fay was and is good value still, as it stands out (could still fail obviously) although the trainer talking Cotswold Chase is a bit scary.

[FinalFurlong91]

was quoting similar stuff last season to the real wanker brigade and this year it looks even better for the brits.

The funny thing is though is the markets haven't caught up and so some of the Irish supporters have a point in needing to get the Irish challengers on side earlier and the UK lot can be left longer.
This also makes sense as the UK winners are not always easy to spot early on whereas the Irish are easier given their novice hurdle dominance.

I think this is why myself and many others though Stay Away Fay was and is good value still, as it stands out (could still fail obviously) although the trainer talking Cotswold Chase is a bit scary.

With Giovinco, iroko and stay away fay looking a few strong British contenders already too

There's just something about the way Giovinco tanks round that makes me like him a lot

Stay away fay jumped superbly, lovely technique for getting over his obstacles

Iroko won on the snaff

And 2 of them won at the festival last year

[Quevega]

With Giovinco, iroko and stay away fay looking a few strong British contenders already too

There's just something about the way Giovinco tanks round that makes me like him a lot

Stay away fay jumped superbly, lovely technique for getting over his obstacles

Iroko won on the snaff

And 2 of them won at the festival last year

Yep, backed them all, but the prices do tend to hold. I assume at some stage one or two may clash.
They are definitely more value than one or two of the Irish, as has been discussed.
Especially Gaelic Wanker.