2024 Novice Chasers

[JackieMoon33]

That first sentence

I only mention FP because Willie and Patrick have referenced him quite a few times when speaking about FTF - them saying it, not me. FYI, FP went from the bumper to the BANC the following year, not the Arkle.

Whilst Im confident FTF will end up over 3m I am certainly not slamming the door shut on 2m5f, it's certainly a possibility (hence 80:20). You don't seem as open Jackie. Sounds like you've backed Turners so it must be Turners and thats that

Have you debunked BANC claims as irrelevant? Just facts aren't they? He's a 3m PTP winner and his sire produced multiple 3m festival winners inc Don Poli who won the BANC.

Re armchair ride I suspect what Q said is right. If he's as good as Willie thinks he is then I suspect he'll be effective over both trips and then its just a case of which one they think will suit him better.

We haven't seen him jump a fence in public yet so I think we can all be fairly open on this, especially given what happened with GDC and the whole will he or wont he re BANC.

I have backed him for the Turners and have been clear on that. Part of that process is eliminating some of the noise as I will only ever back a horse for one race.

They reference FP as he went from bumpers to chasing, not that FTF is like FP in terms of ability or trip. I'm aware FP went to the BANC and never said otherwise, the horse I referred to was Missed That who went from bumpers to the Arkle (same connections). That shows that Willie does not have a set route for horses moving from bumpers to chasing and they referenced FP in that decision too.

We've covered many times on the forum that winning a PTP over 3m has little bearing over the trip a horse will run at under rules. The thing to take from FTF's point was how well he jumped.

The sire thing is also inconclusive whichever way you carve it:

1.) Poliglote sires top horses over varied trips so he's not a sire you'd pigeon hole as only getting stayers for example. His top two progeny (RPRs) were best over 2m and 2m4f. The next two in the list are stayers followed by another 2 miler rounding out the top 5 progeny. I won't go down the list any further but looking at the names, I know I'd continue to see the same variance.

2.) Poliglote has also sired a Champion Chase winner. It was the worst renewal in history but it's still a stat in the same way you'd use Don Poli and Sire Du Berlais.

3.) If we bring in the Damsire and look at Poliglote x Trempolino, the only real horse of note is Floressa who was a 2 miler.

[Craigy14]

I'm not sure Paul Townend will get the ride on Fact To File regardless

Unless Willie literally had nothing else, but he definitely will.

I don't think it's the same set up as with Suede/Munir horses where he can just move Daryl off (or is already number 1 for Willie's)


Wouldn't make a difference, but I'm very much assuming Mark Walsh rides regardless, and Willie to have 2 darts in each at least.

Aye apologies that’s a good point, I forgot it was different to the Suede/Munir situation.

Although if he looks that good he’ll maybe be wanting him elsewhere for Gaelics chances

[Brooksie]

As a general rule Willie wants his absolute best stayers and absolute best speedier types split. If after Dublin it's found that his best two stayers are Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File, he'll keep them apart while fitting in the others around them. I'd imagine then it will be which horse has shown to have been more competent jumping at speed, at this point they'll have already jumped fences in public at least twice so we should be able to draw a reasonable conclusion. For now anyone that thinks they know where these horses are going is merely guessing and hoping.

[Benjy23]

I'm sold on a Turners bet on Fact to File following this discussion. He's not one I'm strong enough on to take in more than one race to be honest. And I have too many in the BANC already anyway

[JackieMoon33]

As a general rule Willie wants his absolute best stayers and absolute best speedier types split. If after Dublin it's found that his best two stayers are Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File, he'll keep them apart while fitting in the others around them. I'd imagine then it will be which horse has shown to have been more competent jumping at speed, at this point they'll have already jumped fences in public at least twice so we should be able to draw a reasonable conclusion. For now anyone that thinks they know where these horses are going is merely guessing and hoping.

*Educated guessing and a lot of hoping

[charlie]

As a general rule Willie wants his absolute best stayers and absolute best speedier types split. If after Dublin it's found that his best two stayers are Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File, he'll keep them apart while fitting in the others around them. I'd imagine then it will be which horse has shown to have been more competent jumping at speed, at this point they'll have already jumped fences in public at least twice so we should be able to draw a reasonable conclusion. For now anyone that thinks they know where these horses are going is merely guessing and hoping.

Those comments re GW were red flag stuff IMO. Don't like it when trainers start saying 'if it doesnt work out they can always go back.....', even more so when it's a quirky horse like GW.

[Brooksie]

Those comments re GW were red flag stuff IMO. Don't like it when trainers start saying 'if it doesnt work out they can always go back.....', even more so when it's a quirky horse like GW.

Well he's one from one with Sir Gerhard, hopefully that doesn't rub off on Gaelic Warrior first time up lol.

[Studfarm254]

Why’s everyone so obsessed with Willie and his banc horses, it’s not a race he wins very often. I’ll take Lucinda’s pair both at 20/1 over Gaelic and FTF any day of the week.

[Bonjers]

Nicholls talking about skipping Kempton with Stay Away Fay unless the ground is very soft and possibly looking at the Cotswold after the new race at Sandown.

[charlie]

Why’s everyone so obsessed with Willie and his banc horses, it’s not a race he wins very often. I’ll take Lucinda’s pair both at 20/1 over Gaelic and FTF any day of the week.

Willies won 2 of the last 10 (and gone close in others) which is still a 20 per cent strike rate and his squad looks ludicrously strong this year.

Its obviously not an obsession, but like it or loathe it Willies horses are subject to brutal haircuts by bookmakers so there is an incentive to try and find his BANC horse early.

His winners won at 13/8 and 1/4, whilst smaller trainers (like Lucinda Russel) have won the race at 12/1, 8/1 and 8/1, and those were the prices on the day much less 3 months beforehand. You'll always get a decent enough price about a horse trained by a Lucinda and you can often do so with a load more information at 8's or 10's than you would 20's.

GW (who I don't fancy at all) comes with a load of quirks and heads the market at 6/1 without jumping a fence. As soon as he does so he's 7/2 etc, so people are trying to find horses early before the price slashing begins. Natural that the man with the largest squad and most talent captures most attention.

[jack1092]

Willies won 2 of the last 10 (and gone close in others) which is still a 20 per cent strike rate and his squad looks ludicrously strong this year.

Its obviously not an obsession, but like it or loathe it Willies horses are subject to brutal haircuts by bookmakers so there is an incentive to try and find his BANC horse early.

His winners won at 13/8 and 1/4, whilst smaller trainers (like Lucinda Russel) have won the race at 12/1, 8/1 and 8/1, and those were the prices on the day much less 3 months beforehand. You'll always get a decent enough price about a horse trained by a Lucinda and you can often do so with a load more information at 8's or 10's than you would 20's.

GW (who I don't fancy at all) comes with a load of quirks and heads the market at 6/1 without jumping a fence. As soon as he does so he's 7/2 etc, so people are trying to find horses early before the price slashing begins. Natural that the man with the largest squad and most talent captures most attention.

Daft thing is, he'll be opening at 6/1 and shorter...to then go 7/2 after more than likely racing right handed.

Straight after Chelt (i dont long-range bet like some on here) i said to a friend he's a decent bet for the BANC...but he's becoming one of the worst priced horses of the festival for me at this stage

[charlie]

Daft thing is, he'll be opening at 6/1 and shorter...to then go 7/2 after more than likely racing right handed.

Straight after Chelt (i dont long-range bet like some on here) he's a nice bet for the BANC...but he's becoming one of the worst priced horses of the festival for me at this stage

Agree. 6/1 with his question marks and the 'if it doesnt work out we can go stayers' quote puts me off

[Studfarm254]

Willies won 2 of the last 10 (and gone close in others) which is still a 20 per cent strike rate and his squad looks ludicrously strong this year.

Its obviously not an obsession, but like it or loathe it Willies horses are subject to brutal haircuts by bookmakers so there is an incentive to try and find his BANC horse early.

His winners won at 13/8 and 1/4, whilst smaller trainers (like Lucinda Russel) have won the race at 12/1, 8/1 and 8/1, and those were the prices on the day much less 3 months beforehand. You'll always get a decent enough price about a horse trained by a Lucinda and you can often do so with a load more information at 8's or 10's than you would 20's.

GW (who I don't fancy at all) comes with a load of quirks and heads the market at 6/1 without jumping a fence. As soon as he does so he's 7/2 etc, so people are trying to find horses early before the price slashing begins. Natural that the man with the largest squad and most talent captures most attention.

I mean you could also say he’s only won it twice in the last 14 years. Giovinco and apples away both come with plenty of pointing experience, and given smaller trainers have won the race last 2 years, I’m just saying there are better value alternatives out there in my opinion. I’m basically a gambling genius and just trying to help out

[charlie]

I mean you could also say he’s only won it twice in the last 14 years. Giovinco and apples away both come with plenty of pointing experience, and given smaller trainers have won the race last 2 years, I’m just saying there are better value alternatives out there in my opinion. I’m basically a gambling genius and just trying to help out

A self proclaimed gambling genius. sure

Giovinco looks an interesting shout, Apple Away definitely does not.

[Odin]

Stay Away Fay heading to Sandown

Stay Away Fay dug deep to win at Exeter on Friday to show that he is an out and out stayer.

"He stayed on strong. He will go to Sandown next for a good three mile novice chanse. Kempton on Boxing Day is a possibility but we would not want the ground to be very soft for him to run.

"I told his owners that he might be one for the Costwold Chase [at Cheltenham in January].

https://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/paul-nicholls/paul-nicholls-ditcheat-diary-knappers-hill-could-go-to-kempton-for-kauto-star-novices-chase-131123-9.html

That last line is some statement from Paul Nicholls...