2024 Novice Chasers

[Spectre]

I'd suggest that if you want to take a read on where Stay Away Fay and Grey Dawning were fitness-wise use Changing Man as a guide. That horse was 100% today, and most of Tizzard's have been, but he will be a 20lbs behind the other two by the end of the season.

I've said this so many times, that these good novices need judging after their second run and not their first. The big trainers know that you don't win the biggest races by being fully tuned at the start of the season.

[archie]

archie has always said the novice chase programme in Ireland is extremely restricted, I’m sure he’ll be able to confirm….

https://www.hri-ras.ie/getmedia/f4be...l-Summary).pdf

Page 18/19 for a summary of beginners and novice chases until the end of the year.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Yep, but it's a kind of obvious conclusion at this juncture as the 2 races markets suggest that the Banc looks much more competitive at this stage.
If any of the top 6 in the betting for the Banc started talking about the NH chase they'd be favourite in a flash.

Of course
I meant he would be more suited to the NH.
Anyway just seen what the trainer said, so I will shut up.
And good for him for being so clear.
And good for the festival, never been that bothered about the NHC to be honest.

[riccirich]

He got smashed by the main protagonists for the Arkle during his novice hurdle season, and I can't see him reversing that form, even with excuses for them performances and improvement for a fence.

If anything, he looked to do his best work late on today, so I'd be going out rather than coming back in trip with him.

I suspect the Drinmore is next up for him.

Wouldn't really disagree with much of that.

But they were clear underperformances at the end of the season and you'd think he was capable of better than that, and when I saw him beat parmenion last season the main thing that stood out was his immaculate jumping.

I think it will be turners most likely if good enough but just for those who really like him for that then the arkle is decent cover imo at the price he still is for it.

[Brooksie]

All fair enough, but what price is he should he win, say, the Drinmore?

I guess it depends what he beats and how he does it I suppose. He'll probably face Letsbeclearaboutit and a B list Mullins horse, if he won probably around the 8/1 mark. If you are building a book 20s isn't bad I suppose. In regards to the Mighty Potter comparison, I guess the difference in price between him and Mighty Potter last season was not so much the manner of his victory first time over fences, but more to do with their grade 1 novice hurdle form. That was already baked into the price prior to him seeing a fence though and as we know bookmakers will find a way to shorten anything up, even if they're already grotesquely short.

[ComplyOrDie]

Nicholls said:

When asked if the National Hunt Chase, for which Stay Away was cut to 8-1 (from14) by Betfair, could be a target after a strong-staying performance, Nicholls responded: "He'll run in the three-miler it's as simple as that. He's too classy for that [National Hunt Chase]."

OK, I've gone full circle, having cashed my original bet on him out but I'm back on board despite my opinion of him.

After The Real Whacker last season I'm hoping I've learnt not to be too hasty dismissing certain types, and maybe, a bit like Mahler last season, Shantou can sire a G1 winning festival horse after all.

Thankfully Hills have been generous enough pushing him out to 14's and with Nicholls basically saying he will run in the BANC, leaves me not requiring cash out this time.

[DenmanSacre]

With the comparison between Mighty Potter and Found A Fifty, there is only a 2 pound difference in RPRs between them both as a novice hurdler.

Collectively from memory we weren't that impressed with his Down Royal win last year (he ended up 3rd fav in the Drinmore) and he improved markedly on his second run so hopefully we see some more improvement from Found a Fifty (albeit he is older than Mighty Potter at the same stage).

[Runragged]

Not fully convinced on Stay Away Fay. Don't think stayers win the BANC, not unless you get a Champ year and they get battling from a long way out. However, stayers do run well, look at Santini or Gerri Colombe. Therefore 14/1 is an ok price but would want it e/w. Too far out to be backing that kind of price each way for me, however, granted nrnb then I would take anything double figure. It's a shame he is going to Sandown next as that should suit him as I could see him getting outpaced at Kempton. If he went straight to Kempton and got beat then it would be likely to get a price to back each way with nrnb.

Will have to watch the race again anyway but think people are ignoring Grey Dawning who would make a more realistic NHC candidate. From memory he seemed to jump sufficiently and just got outpaced at the finish (With a lack of fitness potentially as well). It's known that Skelton don't have his novices fully wound up for debut and worth remembering when this horse was last seen he fell when still in contention in the hot Sefton at Aintree. Sure to be an element of confidence building in the horse as well. Now, always an issue with horses around his rating as you have two very good handicap options (Especially if can keep his mark below 146) but he has plenty of stamina in his breeding and if he was to get a win or two to his name then the NHC could come into contention. Initial talk in the stable tour was to go Kauto Star (Where he would likely reoppose SAF) or Hampton Novice Chase at Warwick which he won with Galia Des Liteaux last year. She subsequently went to the BANC getting the allowance but disappointed somewhat especially on favoured ground. Possible Skelton may learn from that and think NHC may be a more viable option. A horse I will be following this year anyway.

[Quevega]

Not fully convinced on Stay Away Fay. Don't think stayers win the BANC, not unless you get a Champ year and they get battling from a long way out. However, stayers do run well, look at Santini or Gerri Colombe. Therefore 14/1 is an ok price but would want it e/w. Too far out to be backing that kind of price each way for me, however, granted nrnb then I would take anything double figure. It's a shame he is going to Sandown next as that should suit him as I could see him getting outpaced at Kempton. If he went straight to Kempton and got beat then it would be likely to get a price to back each way with nrnb.

Will have to watch the race again anyway but think people are ignoring Grey Dawning who would make a more realistic NHC candidate. From memory he seemed to jump sufficiently and just got outpaced at the finish (With a lack of fitness potentially as well). It's known that Skelton don't have his novices fully wound up for debut and worth remembering when this horse was last seen he fell when still in contention in the hot Sefton at Aintree. Sure to be an element of confidence building in the horse as well. Now, always an issue with horses around his rating as you have two very good handicap options (Especially if can keep his mark below 146) but he has plenty of stamina in his breeding and if he was to get a win or two to his name then the NHC could come into contention. Initial talk in the stable tour was to go Kauto Star (Where he would likely reoppose SAF) or Hampton Novice Chase at Warwick which he won with Galia Des Liteaux last year. She subsequently went to the BANC getting the allowance but disappointed somewhat especially on favoured ground. Possible Skelton may learn from that and think NHC may be a more viable option. A horse I will be following this year anyway.

You lost me at “stayers don’t win the Banc”
Show your workings !

[Can't Catch Me]

Really cant see what the Hills trader who decided to push SAF out on the back of that debut was seeing.

Loads of PN's have needed the run, he jumped great and showed a very likeable attitude again. Wasn't one I'd got involved with before today, but 14/1 for an AB winner who has shown he can jump fences very proficiently makes him a must bet for me now at that price.

[Benjy23]

Edit: Scrap that. It's NHC

[DenmanSacre]

Re stayers not winning the BANC. A common stat you see before the festival is that all winners since 2013 or earlier had raced over 2m5 or shorter earlier in the campaign. Looks a good stat but then the novice chase programme tends to lean more towards chases over less than 3m and most trainers don't want their good staying novices racing over 3m all season. You inevitably just end up with a bunch of stayers racing each other over 2m4 or 2m5 pre Cheltenham and then facing each other at Cheltenham over 3m. I'd expect most horses running in the BANC meet the stat above.

[ComplyOrDie]

Someone rolled out a stat the other day, unless I'm mistaken, that horses starting out over 3m is a negative towards winning the BANC?

Is that right? Or have I got that wrong?

[Istabraq]

Stats/trends are useful but I'd back Nicholls if he thinks this is Stay Away Fays best route to winning a BANC, he knows what the winner of the race looks like...

[Exar Essay]

Someone rolled out a stat the other day, unless I'm mistaken, that horses starting out over 3m is a negative towards winning the BANC?

Is that right? Or have I got that wrong?

Opatcho said he preferred horses who started out over 2m4f so I had a wee look and found that none of the previous winners in the last 20 years started out over 3m or further ... with one very important exception; last years winner.