2024 Novice Chasers

[Odin]

I know we went over this before in Stable Tours thread, but I think given the talk of "calming people down", it's only fair that I respond as to why I don't think the arguments are as clearcut as others here put forward. For transparency/simplicity, I want LBCAI to go to the NH Chase, but I will be covering the WTAF with Turners.

I can completely buy the Drinmore being an obvious early season target for a small(er) trainer - even more so now with it potentially being clear that LBCAI is better right handed and on softer ground (both are arguably concerns for Cheltenham, but I'm not going there). The main things that concern me are:

- The trainer comments: "he doesn't need 3m", NOT "he doesn't need 3m yet". For me, these are very different statements.
- The fact that he didn't campaign Vanillier the same way in either his novice hurdle campaign (stayed at 3m as novice hurdler, rather than dropping to 2.5m post Cheltenham) or his chasing campaign (didn't go Drinmore when could have)
- I don't buy the similarities between horses who went to the Drinmore and then went to the NH Chase. 3 horses were mentioned in stable tours thread: Cause of Causes and Gaillard Du Mesnil were both second season chasers who's last run the previous season was the Irish Grand National; Rathvinden is probably a fairer comparison, but he'd been on the go all summer (6 runs), including running over 3m in July, so it's not exactly the same. Discorama is a fair comparison, but again he was stepped up to 3m at the end of his novice hurdling season, not dropped down to 2.5m over a sharper track after running over 3m at Cheltenham.
- The talk of him beating nothing is absolutely fair, but the same comments could apply to Sharjah. Mars Harper's best form is over 3m, not 2m; and Captain Conby is getting a handicap mark so should be beaten out of sight. That's not to say I think LBCAI is as good as Sharjah at shorter distances - I don't. But I do think that covering the WTAF on LBCAI for the Turners would be a logical move given everything that has been said and done. Surely if he wins the Drinmore he doesn't go to the NH Chase?

I'll repeat, I don't think he will win the Drinmore, which will hopefully lead to a step up in trip, but right now I refuse to believe that him staying shorter in trip than the NH Chase is an unreasonable concern to have.

[Istabraq]

- The trainer comments: "he doesn't need 3m", NOT "he doesn't need 3m yet". For me, these are very different statements.

I think this alone demonstrates how much hang on the words that come from trainers mouths.
The slightest error, slip of tongue etc will be analysed over and over with incorrect assumptions made, not to mention trainers that might do this deliberately.
I'm think I'll start to lean more and more towards what I see on the track, no doubt this means I'll miss prices but not having the benefit of cashout means my points are bets, not trades, and having 25% + of your vouchers on the fire before Christmas isn't smart.
But that's for next year...

[Rooster Booster]

I know we went over this before in Stable Tours thread, but I think given the talk of "calming people down", it's only fair that I respond as to why I don't think the arguments are as clearcut as others here put forward. For transparency/simplicity, I want LBCAI to go to the NH Chase, but I will be covering the WTAF with Turners.

I can completely buy the Drinmore being an obvious early season target for a small(er) trainer - even more so now with it potentially being clear that LBCAI is better right handed and on softer ground (both are arguably concerns for Cheltenham, but I'm not going there). The main things that concern me are:

- The trainer comments: "he doesn't need 3m", NOT "he doesn't need 3m yet". For me, these are very different statements.
- The fact that he didn't campaign Vanillier the same way in either his novice hurdle campaign (stayed at 3m as novice hurdler, rather than dropping to 2.5m post Cheltenham) or his chasing campaign (didn't go Drinmore when could have)
- I don't buy the similarities between horses who went to the Drinmore and then went to the NH Chase. 3 horses were mentioned in stable tours thread: Cause of Causes and Gaillard Du Mesnil were both second season chasers who's last run the previous season was the Irish Grand National; Rathvinden is probably a fairer comparison, but he'd been on the go all summer (6 runs), including running over 3m in July, so it's not exactly the same. Discorama is a fair comparison, but again he was stepped up to 3m at the end of his novice hurdling season, not dropped down to 2.5m over a sharper track after running over 3m at Cheltenham.
- The talk of him beating nothing is absolutely fair, but the same comments could apply to Sharjah. Mars Harper's best form is over 3m, not 2m; and Captain Conby is getting a handicap mark so should be beaten out of sight. That's not to say I think LBCAI is as good as Sharjah at shorter distances - I don't. But I do think that covering the WTAF on LBCAI for the Turners would be a logical move given everything that has been said and done. Surely if he wins the Drinmore he doesn't go to the NH Chase?

I'll repeat, I don't think he will win the Drinmore, which will hopefully lead to a step up in trip, but right now I refuse to believe that him staying shorter in trip than the NH Chase is an unreasonable concern to have.

I wish I had written it down but I believe the trainer made a point of saying he didnt think he stayed post Cheltenham and in the build up to Aintree. I do not think his current campaign is just about making hay I think he genuinely sees him as a mid trip horse. With so many on here seeming to fancy him for the NHC I was wondering if I had just imagined this but perhaps I hadn’t after all.

[Rooster Booster]

I think this alone demonstrates how much hang on the words that come from trainers mouths.
The slightest error, slip of tongue etc will be analysed over and over with incorrect assumptions made, not to mention trainers that might do this deliberately.
I'm think I'll start to lean more and more towards what I see on the track, no doubt this means I'll miss prices but not having the benefit of cashout means my points are bets, not trades, and having 25% + of your vouchers on the fire before Christmas isn't smart.
But that's for next year...

Spot on. I do not have the luxury of cash out either and I do wonder if as a consequence every bet placed needs to jump through more hoops. I suspect even this forum would look and feel different without cash out. Certainly there would be some sort of shift towards individual bet scrutiny and away from betting strategy, how big a shift I don’t know. I know I’m being nostalgic and no doubt covetous but I do kind of miss the old fashioned version of ante post.

[Eggs]

…..Letsbeclearaboutit now 8-1 TWAR with Hills. Might be a decent option for their next double odds boost.

[FinalFurlong91]

…..Letsbeclearaboutit now 8-1 TWAR with Hills. Might be a decent option for their next double odds boost.

It's hard to see him being much shorter than 8/1 on the day in whichever race he ends up in

He might win the drinmore but it'll be a different kettle of fish once the big guns start coming out

[Rooster Booster]

It's hard to see him being much shorter than 8/1 on the day in whichever race he ends up in

He might win the drinmore but it'll be a different kettle of fish once the big guns start coming out

Im not certain there will be any big guns in the turners, especially ones that will prevent him being a single figure price should he win the drinmore.

If FV goes arkle and FTF goes banc who are the big guns ….inthepocket? Corbetts cross…admirable horses but hardly big guns….time will tell but it’s not much of a leap to think he would start shorter than 8 IF he were to win the drinmore imo.

If FTF goes turners then CC would likely go BANC and itp arkle. So even in this scenario if he won the drinmore he’d likely be 2nd fav. The only scenario I would expect him to be double figures in a turners having won a drinmore would be if Willie ran both FV and FTF (unlikely) and /or multiple jp runners (not convinced about that either).

[FinalFurlong91]

Im not certain there will be any big guns in the turners, especially ones that will prevent him being a single figure price should he win the drinmore.

If FV goes arkle and FTF goes banc who are the big guns ….inthepocket? Corbetts cross…admirable horses but hardly big guns….time will tell but it’s not much of a leap to think he would start shorter than 8 IF he were to win the drinmore imo.

If FTF goes turners then CC would likely go BANC and itp arkle. So even in this scenario if he won the drinmore he’d likely be 2nd fav. The only scenario I would expect him to be double figures in a turners having won a drinmore would be if Willie ran both FV and FTF (unlikely) and /or multiple jp runners (not convinced about that either).

The drinmore winner never follows up at Cheltenham

It just never gets mentioned unlike the Challow

Any combination of

Facile
Mister policeman
Inthepocket
Corbetts cross
Gaelic warrior
fact to file
sandor clegane
hermes allen

Could turn up

Hell even american mike, who was clearly not right after his second run last year and couldnt jump a hurdle could still end up being a big gun

And mike did absolutely batter him at down royal

Then you have the horses that come out of knowhere and improve loads for a fence

Have followed letsbeclearaboutit closely since his bumper days and every time he's run against a proper grade 1 horse he's lost

Happy to make my money on him this year in the race yesterday and when he beats sharjah in the drinmore (if the ground is soft or heavy)

[Istabraq]

Any combination of

Facile
Mister policeman
Inthepocket
Corbetts cross
Gaelic warrior
fact to file
sandor clegane
hermes allen

Could turn up

)

Sharjah will run here...

[FinalFurlong91]

Sharjah will run here...

In my mind he's pencilled in for the fairyhouse grade 1 at this stage

Willie will want one for that race and its very close to Cheltenham this year

Letsbeclearaboutit could well end up there as well

[Rooster Booster]

The drinmore winner never follows up at Cheltenham

It just never gets mentioned unlike the Challow

Any combination of

Facile
Mister policeman
Inthepocket
Corbetts cross
Gaelic warrior
fact to file
sandor clegane
hermes allen

Could turn up

Hell even american mike, who was clearly not right after his second run last year and couldnt jump a hurdle could still end up being a big gun

And mike did absolutely batter him at down royal

Then you have the horses that come out of knowhere and improve loads for a fence

Have followed letsbeclearaboutit closely since his bumper days and every time he's run against a proper grade 1 horse he's lost

Happy to make my money on him this year in the race yesterday and when he beats sharjah in the drinmore (if the ground is soft or heavy)

I’m not advocating a bet on him I was merely suggesting he might be less than 8s should he win the drimore and with likely alternative targets for most/many. Personally I don’t think many on your list will line up in the turners. Obviously if the majority do then he will be bigger than 8.

[Lobos]

B365 still a massive standout 11/2 re F Vega in Arkle and shortest at 7/2 in the Turners.

[Quevega]

To be clear, the biggest issue I have with Letsbeclearaboutit is that I cannot see him winning any of the novice races at the festival. Anyone who has backed him for any of the novice chases at the festival should cash out. IMO
I can't be clearer than that.

[Rooster Booster]

To be clear, the biggest issue I have with Letsbeclearaboutit is that I cannot see him winning any of the novice races at the festival. Anyone who has backed him for any of the novice chases at the festival should cash out. IMO
I can't be clearer than that.

Nor can I ….which is probably a good reason for others to keep their bets

[FinalFurlong91]

To be clear, the biggest issue I have with Letsbeclearaboutit is that I cannot see him winning any of the novice races at the festival. Anyone who has backed him for any of the novice chases at the festival should cash out. IMO
I can't be clearer than that.

Cash out and back him for the drinmore if its soft or heavy going

Simples