2024 Novice Chasers

[TigerRolllllll]

Letsbeclearaboutit only won going right-handed in his career so far I think

Was 4th in Spuds so may not be a thing ….but something to be aware of

[Saxon Warrior]

Letsbeclearaboutit only won going right-handed in his career so far I think

Was 4th in Spuds so may not be a thing ….but something to be aware of

Good for his chances in the Drinmore at Fairyhouse, then, next up.

[FinalFurlong91]

Surely flooring porter is their RSA horse so I'm hoping nh chase but feels like he could be fast enough for turners the way he's running ATM but he looked one paced when dropped back to 2.5m at aintree as a novice...

Ground was probably a bit quick for him at Aintree

Most of his best runs have come on soft/heavy

[Lobos]

Ground was probably a bit quick for him at Aintree

Most of his best runs have come on soft/heavy

Good point. Probably won't be risked on quick ground especially with his injury background.

[SeanRock]

Re: Letsbeclearabout…you have to take into consideration what’s he beaten over fences so far when talking up a Turners bet, which is effectively handicappers & not very good ones at today.

He’s just a superior horse to anything he’s faced which made the 5/2 which was still available this morning all the better value. Thankfully I filled my boots today which will take edge off if mistaken about his target being the NHC in March. But I’m convinced once he’s faced Willie’s better ones he’ll be getting stepped up.

His economic jumping will be a real asset in staying chases this year, he’s very neat & tidy!

[jono]

Easy to get carried away at this time of year. (And I’m saying that as someone who has fallen to doing so in the past) Until the major players come out, it’s very much worth treading with caution imo. He’s a good horse, and one I like. And maybe fences change things completely for him, he certainly looks to be a better horse over a fence. But I’d have laughed at the idea of him being a genuine 2m4 spring festival horse. It’s one thing looking like you can do at this time of year. Let’s see if it’s the same in 4 months time. When the races have the depth of challengers you’d expect.

I’ve little doubt he’ll be thrown into the Flogas at the DRF.
That’ll be a huge indicator for where he lies.

Given it’s very possible his next 2 runs will be in grade ones, over 2m3.5 and 2m5 (trips that were assumed too short for ideal) he’ll likely be a price in both. To cover any races (Turners) you’re worried about.

[charlie]

Easy to get carried away at this time of year. (And I’m saying that as someone who has fallen to doing so in the past) Until the major players come out, it’s very much worth treading with caution imo. He’s a good horse, and one I like. And maybe fences change things completely for him, he certainly looks to be a better horse over a fence. But I’d have laughed at the idea of him being a genuine 2m4 spring festival horse. It’s one thing looking like you can do at this time of year. Let’s see if it’s the same in 4 months time. When the races have the depth of challengers you’d expect.

I’ve little doubt he’ll be thrown into the Flogas at the DRF.
That’ll be a huge indicator for where he lies.

Given it’s very possible his next 2 runs will be in grade ones, over 2m3.5 and 2m5 (trips that were assumed too short for ideal) he’ll likely be a price in both. To cover any races (Turners) you’re worried about.

Echo all of that, well said.

[SeanRock]

Easy to get carried away at this time of year. (And I’m saying that as someone who has fallen to doing so in the past) Until the major players come out, it’s very much worth treading with caution imo. He’s a good horse, and one I like. And maybe fences change things completely for him, he certainly looks to be a better horse over a fence. But I’d have laughed at the idea of him being a genuine 2m4 spring festival horse. It’s one thing looking like you can do at this time of year. Let’s see if it’s the same in 4 months time. When the races have the depth of challengers you’d expect.

I’ve little doubt he’ll be thrown into the Flogas at the DRF.
That’ll be a huge indicator for where he lies.

Given it’s very possible his next 2 runs will be in grade ones, over 2m3.5 and 2m5 (trips that were assumed too short for ideal) he’ll likely be a price in both. To cover any races (Turners) you’re worried about.

He won’t have the gears against genuine grade 1 animals in the spring. Gavin’s campaigned him well to put him in a good position for a grade 1 at his local track in the Drinmore next month. That would be a big feather in his hat.

Need him to be stepped up to 3m & placed to get qualified for the NHC don’t we. Hopefully connections will want the option. The Naas/Navan race would be ideal, I think they’d be silly to flog him against Willes best in the Flogas as a Cheltenham prep. Especially with such a busy start to the campaign.

[Lobos]

Good to bring everyone down to earth Jono.

Be interesting to see how many of this year's winners had already had a run at this stage of the season??

[jono]

Need him to be stepped up to 3m & placed to get qualified for the NHC don’t we. Hopefully connections will want the option. The Naas/Navan race would be ideal, I think they’d be silly to flog him against Willes best in the Flogas as a Cheltenham prep. Especially with such a busy start to the campaign.

Gavin tends to favour getting plenty of racing into his horses. And the horse had a busy campaign last season novice hurdling. At the very least it may give advance notice for any NHC bets, based on where they go Jan/Feb time. Whether there is an ‘easy’ 3 mile novice Chase, that could slot in between Drinmore and DRF even, like you say just for the option.

[fatherjohn]

has everyone seen the Cromwell quote here- says he doesn't think he needs 3 miles so wouldn't appear to be nhc he's thinking about now

https://twitter.com/RoadCheltenham/status/1721207677844365331?t=fiHmPpgtyvXxnhAycx61YQ&s=19

[jono]

Good to bring everyone down to earth Jono.

Be interesting to see how many of this year's winners had already had a run at this stage of the season??

It wouldn’t just be the fact it’s the start of November and many, notably Willie is yet to even get going.
But even more so in this case that it seems like a horse who was running predominantly over 22-24F as a novice hurdler, appreciating soft/heavy ground.
Is now a genuine middle distance horse. When he’s raced against horses who will have no bearing at the top of the races come Feb/March/April.
He may well have enough to take in the Drinmore, but I’m dubious from there on in.

Could be wrong of course. Maybe connections had the horse wrong prior to this season, in what they thought he was.
Sometimes it happens.

Hard to knock how he has taken to fences though. Perfect start so far.
Just best not taking it at face value, imo

[SeanRock]

has everyone seen the Cromwell quote here- says he doesn't think he needs 3 miles so wouldn't appear to be nhc he's thinking about now

https://twitter.com/RoadCheltenham/s...hAycx61YQ&s=19

Those quotes seemed to relate to the Drinmore being his next target. Not needing 3m in the immediate future is very different than not getting it down the line. As myself & Jono have touched on in the Stable Tour thread plenty of NHC winners & participants took in the Drinmore en route.

[SeanRock]

Just for full context

https://www.irishracing.com/news/Letsbeclearaboutit-impresses-in-Grade-3-Novice-Chase-win/243745

[Captain Chris]

A performance that I was particularly impressed with yesterday which might have gone a little unnoticed was the chase debut of Marble sands at ayr.
He jumped like a seasoned chaser, he travelled extremely well off a pretty quick tempo for the class of race, and a first time chaser could've been forgiven for making a mistake but he was excellent, I encourage anyone who hasn't yet watched this race to allow 5 mins to do so.
Will he be in the mix for cheltenham? it's possible from what he produced yesterday.
The 2nd and 3rd also making chase debuts will win races possibly nto.

So happy for the jockey too. He's not someone I know well at all, but is a friend of a friend and grew up near me. Always been talented but never given many opportunities. Hopefully he gets to keep the ride on this one as they go up in grade. From a Cheltenham standpoint, it seems pretty unlikely given he's had 3 grade 1 attempts and not finished within the same postcode as the winner, but fingers crossed for plenty of improvement!