2024 Novice Chasers

[Exar Essay]

He was going to be my lay of the festival before he ran at the DRF but now I'll be backing him if he turns up.

He was too short in the betting but now looks overpriced to me, even with the left handed concerns.

I agree with this. It's ironic really, that a poor performance makes him backable, but evens or whatever he was before the DRF left no room in the price to accommodate his quirks. I added a little more at 16 on BFX after the race and am pleased I did. I am tempted to bet again at 6-7.

I think that very fairly reflects the risk involved with the horse. I think most agree he'd be the most talented horse in the race. Clearly he has a preference for going right handed, but I thought his jumping at the DRF was fine. Obviously to the right, but he was actually gaining on FTF over some of his jumps (in running I was worried for FTF as I'd assumed that would be where he'd make most of his ground). I actually think he jumped fine in the Ballymore last year too. It was Champ Kiely who received most of the post race comments about jumping right and Patrick confirmed GW was actually ok. If it was his jumping alone, I think 4/1 NRNB would be a great bet as I think, although an issue, it is overplayed.

I think the major issue is his temperament. He was playing up in the parade ring at the DRF and then went a breakneck speed in the race which I believe is what lead to his blowing up (following the error at the fourth last). But in other races, he's seemed far more tractable - Limerick at Christmas and the 3m Novice Hurdle at Punchestown being two good examples. In both cases, Paul/Patrick have been able to either settle him before kicking on (Punchestown) or give him a good blow (Limerick). I've been far more impressed with those races than I have the ones where he's just gone full throttle e.g. his beginners chase, even though he won by half the track.

[DenmanSacre]

I haven't backed Gaelic for the Turners. I'll wait until the day now and see how he is in the parade ring. If he plays up again, he could be 20/1 and I wouldn't back him. If he's fine, I'd then consider backing him at a shorter price than he currently is. That was what caused the poor performance at the DRF and not jumping right, which I wouldn't be too concerned about in the Turners.

[Odin]

Yes, we have the NRMB option but that still wouldn't interest me as he looked a sick horse and the fall was just unnecessary. He should have been pulled up. Odin, the Turners is over 2m 4f (albeit 50 yards) not 2m 3f and on the much stiffer track.......not that that will change your mind by the sounds of it !

If he's a sick horse, he won't go as you say - that's why the NRNB is so useful to me. I agree the fall was unnecessary and for what it's worth I'd send him to the Fairyhouse 2m4f Grade 1.

With respect to the Turners, it may be stiffer but it's still a speed test. Looking through the last few years of runners (Galopin as the obvious exception), there are very few horses who were electric over more than 3m that ran in it - most were best over flat 3 mile races (e.g. Chantry House, Asterion Forlonge, Shan Blue, Mister Fisher, Tornado Flyer, Lostintranslation, Kildisart, Kemboy, Finian's Oscar, West Approach) or in 2m4f races (Bob Olinger, Envoi Allen, Stage Star, Samcro, Melon, Faugheen) or even shorter (Defi Du Seuil, Politologue). I dunno, it just seems to be a race for speedier types and I'm not sure any other horse who is likely to run has proven to be as speedy as Gaelic. Time will tell - I'd still prefer him not to go and Facile to win it for my lifechanger

[Lobos]

Yeah get Facile in there and let PT ride Hunters Yarn in the Arkle........I'd go with that. It's a deal.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I agree with this. It's ironic really, that a poor performance makes him backable, but evens or whatever he was before the DRF left no room in the price to accommodate his quirks. I added a little more at 16 on BFX after the race and am pleased I did. I am tempted to bet again at 6-7.

I think that very fairly reflects the risk involved with the horse. I think most agree he'd be the most talented horse in the race. Clearly he has a preference for going right handed, but I thought his jumping at the DRF was fine. Obviously to the right, but he was actually gaining on FTF over some of his jumps (in running I was worried for FTF as I'd assumed that would be where he'd make most of his ground). I actually think he jumped fine in the Ballymore last year too. It was Champ Kiely who received most of the post race comments about jumping right and Patrick confirmed GW was actually ok. If it was his jumping alone, I think 4/1 NRNB would be a great bet as I think, although an issue, it is overplayed.

I think the major issue is his temperament. He was playing up in the parade ring at the DRF and then went a breakneck speed in the race which I believe is what lead to his blowing up (following the error at the fourth last). But in other races, he's seemed far more tractable - Limerick at Christmas and the 3m Novice Hurdle at Punchestown being two good examples. In both cases, Paul/Patrick have been able to either settle him before kicking on (Punchestown) or give him a good blow (Limerick). I've been far more impressed with those races than I have the ones where he's just gone full throttle e.g. his beginners chase, even though he won by half the track.

Great Post. He's almost the perfect example of being able to back any horse in a race if the price is right.

One minute I'm finding reasons to lay him, now I've gone full circle and will almost certainly have him onside.

[Lobos]

Hunters being nibbled at a little for the Arkle. My email to Willie may have worked.

[ComplyOrDie]

Hunters being nibbled at a little for the Arkle. My email to Willie may have worked.

Not an awful lot of movement on the exchanges for him.

I, like you, hope Willie sees sense!

[Lobos]

Not an awful lot of movement on the exchanges for him.

I, like you, hope Willie sees sense!

Hoping the Double Green guys put their foot down and insist on him going. They don't have anything else in the race do they ??

PP are shortest at 6's which is a little encouraging

[Silverbirch]

Hoping the Double Green guys put their foot down and insist on him going. They don't have anything else in the race do they ??

PP are shortest at 6's which is a little encouraging

Unfortunately they do. Matata, don't see him having a chance though.

[Lobos]

Not an awful lot of movement on the exchanges for him.

I, like you, hope Willie sees sense!

Some movement now isn't there COD ??

[ComplyOrDie]

Some movement now isn't there COD ??

Very small amounts, but yeah.

[Lobos]

Very small amounts, but yeah.

Let's hope they keep coming for him.

[Halffat1]

Does the fact that Mister Policeman ran well enough yesterday, who I don’t think has any Cheltenham G1 entries, mean that it is more likely that Hunters Yarn could be released from Irish domestic duties to take up his Arkle entry?

[Kevloaf]

Does the fact that Mister Policeman ran well enough yesterday, who I don’t think has any Cheltenham G1 entries, mean that it is more likely that Hunters Yarn could be released from Irish domestic duties to take up his Arkle entry?

I think Mister Policeman is one for handicaps (even in Ireland) now so probably no relevance.

Hunters Yarn really should be running, unless Munir/Suede really fancy Matata

[Lobos]

I think Mister Policeman is one for handicaps (even in Ireland) now so probably no relevance.

Hunters Yarn really should be running, unless Munir/Suede really fancy Matata

Matata does have close form with JPR One and course form so maybe they are going with him. Hunters did run like a pig in the County so perhaps they think he doesn't fancy Cheltenham?? No idea.